Stoudemire agrees to five-year deal with Knicks

[ASUCHRIS]

Since you keep quoting this, can you share Stoudemire's comparable statistic? I'd like to know how big the gap is.

The Lee defensive information is from an ESPN insider article, I was actually able to find the Synergy website, but outside of Amare and Lebron, you don't get the info for free. According to Synergy, Amare gave up 47% shooting on post up opportunities. Nothing special, but certainly better than Lee.

Further, "In fact, according to Synergy, he (Lee) faced more post-up situations per game than any other player in the NBA this past season".


Most damning, Stoudemire is certainly an average at best defender, so the fact that Hollinger makes that comment "although Stoudemire will look like Bill Russell compared to Lee" doesn't say much about Lee.

 

[joshstmarie]

Before it was a crystal ball, now it's a DeLorean. Very amusing. Any real points to add? You think I'm just making this stuff up? Salary caps are going down right now. The CBA is going to drastically cut salaries. This is the owner's primary concern and the only way there will be an agreement. If there is no agreement, there will be a lockout. Bottomline, there will be no basketball until salaries are reduced. This is known. This is why everyone that can opt out is opting out this year, to sign a big contract before salaries (market value) go down. Now for the really hard part. We're going to have to use our intuition skills. Can you handle it? I'll lead you through. If contracts are going to get smaller, that means current contracts will be bigger than them. If contracts are going to get smaller, that means these new contracts will be market price. If these new contracts are market price, then the pre-CBA bigger contracts will be over-priced above market value. Yayyyyy we did it. You follow? Or are you going to ask me if I played a ouija board, opened a fortune cookie, called the psychic hotline, etc, again? 15 million for David Lee is arguably already overpriced. In 1 to 2 years it will be way over market value and, thus, be a very bad contract with years remaining on it.

Yes I get it, and have gotten it long before you wasted time typing that gigantic wall of text.

Again, you have no idea how the negotiations are going to turn out. Continue on with your assumptions.

 

[elindholm]

According to Synergy, Amare gave up 47% shooting on post up opportunities. Nothing special, but certainly better than Lee.

Given the vagaries of categorizing opportunities, I'd be surprised if a 4% difference is statistically significant. And even if it is, it amounts to about one possession per game.

Most damning, Stoudemire is certainly an average at best defender, so the fact that Hollinger makes that comment "although Stoudemire will look like Bill Russell compared to Lee" doesn't say much about Lee.

This is going to shock you, but sportswriters will sometimes exaggerate in order to make a point. If Hollinger, the biggest statistical guru out there, can't back up his claim with numbers, it means he's making it up.

 

[Sunburn]

Yes I get it, and have gotten it long before you wasted time typing that gigantic wall of text.

Again, you have no idea how the negotiations are going to turn out. Continue on with your assumptions.

If I say the sun will come up tomorrow, would you disregard this because it is an assumption? No, of course not. It's pretty much guaranteed to happen as are the ramifications of the cba. Disregard what I stated if you want. I've backed up my rebuttal of your David Lee proposition with fact and reasoning, which is more than I can say about your wise guy, "crystal ball" responses.

 

[joshstmarie]

If I say the sun will come up tomorrow, would you disregard this because it is an assumption? No, of course not. It's pretty much guaranteed to happen as are the ramifications of the cba. Disregard what I stated if you want. I've backed up my rebuttal of your David Lee proposition with fact and reasoning, which is more than I can say about your wise guy, "crystal ball" responses.

That was a terrible analogy.
Im not denying that salaries and salary structures are going to be different but you have NO IDEA to what extent. Untill you know this info your argument of contracts being signed right now will be "over market value" holds absolutely no water.

 

[Folster]

I'm sure someone has brought this up already, but comparing Stoudemire and Lee using opposing player efficiency is extremely misleading because you are completely overlooking a few key factors. For the most part, David Lee played center for the Knicks. Stoudemire played power forward. I would imagine Lee was outsized having to guard the other team's center or had the responsibility to mark the opponents best big man on a nightly basis. In comparison Stoudemire was always matched against the opponents weaker frontcourt player while Lopez, Frye, or Collins were tasked with guarding the likes of Duncan and Howard. So it does not surprise me at all that Lee's opponent's efficiency was higher than Stoudemire.

 

[Sunburn]

That was a terrible analogy.
Im not denying that salaries and salary structures are going to be different but you have NO IDEA to what extent. Untill you know this info your argument of contracts being signed right now will be "over market value" holds absolutely no water.

So, since you've granted that salary and structure will change let's infer a little more from that. If salary and structure will change that means they will either go up or go down. We can rule going up out so that means salary and structure will be going down. How much will they go down? Based on the magnitude of the numbers we're dealing with I think it'd be safe to assume it's more than ten bucks. In fact, I think it's safe to assume that it's a fairly significant amount since the owners and players find it a subject worth arguing over. Since they do find it worth arguing over, even having a lockout over, which would cost them millions, I would say this significant amount is in the millions. If salaries will be going down millions then market price will be going down millions. If market price will be going down millions, then current contracts will be millions "over market value". So, there you go. By your own admission we are able to infer that salary and structure will be going down by millions and that current contracts will be way over market value. Thanks for agreeing.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Have you ever watched a Knicks game or are you basing your ENTIRE opinion on a paragraph of a John Hollinger article you stole from Insider?

Ah, America's "Finest", I was wondering where my ol pal has been! Hope you've been well. Starting out with wild accusations, I'd like to say I'm surprised, but, well, you know.

Yes, I've watched Knicks games, certainly not enough to formulate an opinion on Lee, especially his D. My "ENTIRE" opinion on Lee and his defense is based on the opinions of many writers who all share the same opinion; that Lee is one of the worst defenders in basketball, and appreciably worse than Amare. This is based not only on the opinion of many respected writers, but also statistical analysis. As you've managed to include information from several different articles that I've quoted, you're entire paragraph question is pretty stupid. Seems to be a pretty sound way of developing an opinion, no?

As for stealing from Insider, believe it or not, you can actually subscribe so you don't need to steal! Not sure what you were getting at there.

To actually address your point, yeah I would take David Lee at 5 years, 12 million

Which is exactly what I said.

which I think it the max we would have to pay for him

Here is where we disagree. Do you really think he'll make less than 12 million on the open market? We'll see, but I think you're wrong.

You made a reference how the best teams don't overpay but the Spurs traded for Richard Jefferson and his god awful contract last year

Which was obviously a major mistake. Pop was dancing in the streets when he opted out.

the Lakers are paying Andrew Bynum 15 million the next 3 years and Luke Walton 6.

An injured Bynum was integral in the Lakers winning a championship, I doubt they're too unhappy about Bynum's contract, and it's far from a RJ level disaster. Luke Walton is clearly overpaid, but I guess the overarching moral of all of this is that teams like the Lakers can make mistakes, whereas teams like the Suns can't.

Personally getting a plus rebounder and finisher like Lee at 12`million a year is a pretty damn good deal IMO.

Again, read what you quoted me saying, this is exactly what I said.

you seem to be throwing around your own personal opinion on the numbers like they are the gospel, when so far the market doesn't seem to be going that way for him.

You seem to be making ridiculous assumptions. I have an opinion of what I think he'll get, and I have my reasons behind it. I don't see anywhere where I guarantee anything, rather I have an opinion and explain why. That's kind of how these things work.

I'd love to get him at 12 mil, but anticipate his final # being closer to 15. why?

1. He's a decent player in a FA market that is overpaying everybody.
2. There will be plenty of teams shut out of the max player bonanza with tons of money available. You only need to find one team to overspend.

Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see.

And if some team gets desperate and gives him 15 million a year, then no thats a bad idea at that point.

Agreed, that's what I've been saying all along.

Sometimes there is a middle ground.

A salient point, but I'm not sure what you're referring to.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Given the vagaries of categorizing opportunities, I'd be surprised if a 4% difference is statistically significant. And even if it is, it amounts to about one possession per game.

It's one stat among many that says Lee is a bad defender. Is this one stat definitive enough to say that Lee is significantly worse than Stoudemire? Probably not, but again it's only a part of the equation.

This is going to shock you, but sportswriters will sometimes exaggerate in order to make a point.

Color me stunned. I've never seen any hyperbole among sportswriters and sports media. Perhaps you're aware of message board sarcasm as well?

If Hollinger, the biggest statistical guru out there, can't back up his claim with numbers, it means he's making it up.

Your premise is assumptive as well as false. I would imagine you're conclusion is as well.

 

[elindholm]

It's one stat among many that says Lee is a bad defender.

Well, then give us the many. Idiot sportwriters repeating after one another like trained monkeys aren't statistics.

Perhaps you're aware of message board sarcasm as well?

I gather we both are.

Your premise is assumptive as well as false.

Well, any "if-then" relationship assumes that the premise is true; otherwise there is no claim. But no, it isn't false. The one statistic you've cited doesn't indicate anything.

 

[Sunburn]

If Hollinger, the biggest statistical guru out there, can't back up his claim with numbers, it means he's making it up.

I think your argument is flawed because you're assuming here he cannot back up his claim with numbers. Just because he didn't doesn't mean he can't. However, your actual if-then claim is valid.

 

[devilalum]

This is what they think the Cavs are willing to give up for Bosh.

The exact details of the potential trade have not been solidified, but Toronto likely would get Anderson Varejao and/or J.J. Hickson, Delonte West and perhaps Anthony Parker. A draft pick could be involved as well.

They wouldn't even give Hickson for Amare.

 

[devilalum]

This is what they think the Cavs are willing to give up for Bosh.



They wouldn't even give Hickson for Amare.

The real irony is that the Cavs will be dealing with B. Colangelo if this goes down.

 

[TJ]

Here's what's important to me about Lee:

Rebounds

This team has lacked a starting PF who can be a force on the boards for quite some time. He averaged 11.6 RPG (4th in the league) last year and has a career avg of 9.6. To me, a guy who is 27 and is seemingly improving his game is worth the risk of a lucrative deal. The similarity between him and STAT is that a cardboard cut out of Wayne Gretzky can play better defense than them. But I feel a good rebounder can only help the fast break and limit 2nd chance points. In addition, he still puts up 20 ppg. We have been bitching and moaning about not having a 20/10 guy for a while. Well, here's our chance. I would really enjoy having him here and consider the Suns a threat for another year or two if he is on the payroll.

But equally as important, we need to get a GM here. This opportunity almost slipped out of Sarver's hands, which is a tall tale sign that he cannot handle the role as owner/general manager.

 

[TJ]

lol. :rimshot:

OT: but can the mods get a rimshot type smiley? Seems as if we havent had any new ones in a while

Yours truly,
T.J.

 

[bankybruce]

And that brings me to another point. It was Stoudemire’s great good fortune to play alongside Nash, with whom he had achieved a state of pick-and-roll simpatico. According to STATS LLC, Nash had an assist in well over a third of Stoudemire’s baskets. That’s 2,310 points in basically five seasons. Over four playoff campaigns, Nash had an assist on 44 percent of Stoudemire’s baskets. And none of this includes the points Nash helped create for Stoudemire on the free-throw line.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/amare-stoudemire-knicks-are-perfectly-awful-match-070610

Great article by the way. Very fair.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Well, then give us the many. Idiot sportwriters repeating after one another like trained monkeys aren't statistics.

I'll make you a deal; you get the subscription to that site, and I'll get you all the stats you want. Or we could just ask Hollinger to back his statement up statistically, which considering it's his specialty, I'd assume he would.

Well, any "if-then" relationship assumes that the premise is true; otherwise there is no claim. But no, it isn't false. The one statistic you've cited doesn't indicate anything.

How about valid, but unsound and weak?

 

[slinslin]

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/amare-stoudemire-knicks-are-perfectly-awful-match-070610

Great article by the way. Very fair.

The whole assisted thing is stupid. Boozer, Dirk etc got assisted on roughly the same percentage of baskets.

Breaking News, if you play pick and roll you will make most of your baskets on assists, shocking.

 

[mojorizen7]

I went and looked at Lee's numbers before Pringles came in and it's no surprise that they recieved a nice boost across the board. Could be Lee's natural development,could be coaching(uh nevermind that), or it could be that he's the lone big man on a DA team who's free to grab all the rebounds while the other 4 guys are running the other way....

IMO David Lee is a nice player,but i'm holding out for something better down the line.

 

[bankybruce]

The whole assisted thing is stupid. Boozer, Dirk etc got assisted on roughly the same percentage of baskets.

Breaking News, if you play pick and roll you will make most of your baskets on assists, shocking.

I am pretty amazed that you missed the point of the article. Oh wait, no I'm not. The point is that he need a good PG to be successful based on his past performance.

Here is another part from the article.

The Knicks don’t even have a legitimate point guard under contract -- unless you count Toney Douglas, whom they acquired from the Lakers for cash and a draft pick. Who knows? Maybe they’ll max him out, too.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I agree 100%! I'd LOOOOOOVE a Horford-Lopez 4-5 lineup, but my point was directed to the point that we skip Horford because we have Lopez. Horford is a true 4 who I wanted us to trade Amare for before he was drafted (it's in the board archive). Too bad that didn't happen....

A lot of us wanted to draft him when we thought we were going to get Atlanta's pick at 4 from the JJ trade.

 

[chickenhead]

Here's what's important to me about Lee:

Rebounds

This team has lacked a starting PF who can be a force on the boards for quite some time. He averaged 11.6 RPG (4th in the league) last year and has a career avg of 9.6. To me, a guy who is 27 and is seemingly improving his game is worth the risk of a lucrative deal. The similarity between him and STAT is that a cardboard cut out of Wayne Gretzky can play better defense than them. But I feel a good rebounder can only help the fast break and limit 2nd chance points. In addition, he still puts up 20 ppg. We have been bitching and moaning about not having a 20/10 guy for a while. Well, here's our chance. I would really enjoy having him here and consider the Suns a threat for another year or two if he is on the payroll.

But equally as important, we need to get a GM here. This opportunity almost slipped out of Sarver's hands, which is a tall tale sign that he cannot handle the role as owner/general manager.

I'm sort of surprised it took this long for Lee's rebounding to be brought in as a point in his defense. Especially when we're comparing him to a player we have roundly criticized for not making the effort in his rebounding game--something Lee is consistently praised for.

Just anecdotally, a lot of these points about Lee's defensive liabilities (which are fairly presented) have not been echoed all that much in the NY press. I think the implicit understanding is that Lee has been playing out of position on a relatively bad team with a coach known for a poor defensive system.

I said a couple years ago when the D'Antoni hiring started all kinds of Suns-Knicks trade rumors that if the Knicks wanted Amare I'd love to get Lee in return. (Keep in mind that Lee was in the middle of a contract and there would have eben the chance to extend him for less than what we'd probably have to pay now). Harder to say that he's worth it now, but if there's a chance to turn this into a S&T, I'd still do it.

 

[Joe Mama]

I went and looked at Lee's numbers before Pringles came in and it's no surprise that they recieved a nice boost across the board. Could be Lee's natural development,could be coaching(uh nevermind that), or it could be that he's the lone big man on a DA team who's free to grab all the rebounds while the other 4 guys are running the other way....

IMO David Lee is a nice player,but i'm holding out for something better down the line.

I'm with you. In my opinion, you don't pay a player like David Lee $12-15 million per season unless he is going to push you over the top. I think it would be a major mistake for Phoenix to get him. Of course for the record I don't understand what there is to get New York excited about doing a sign and trade unless we could take some of the extra salary that would allow the New York Knicks to get another big-time free agent.

Here's my big problem with paying David Lee that kind of money he will get. He doesn't create his own offense. I don't think there's any team in the league that would double team him. We can argue all day about whether he is as good defensively as Amare Stoudemire, but they are comparable. If he's a finisher on offense, a poor defender, someone undersized that's all I need to hear.

I don't have time to go grab all their numbers right now, but I've looked at many of the free agents numbers over the last couple weeks. Amare, David Lee, Channing Frye, Warrick are all basically pretty bad defensively by the numbers. But let me tell you that the defensive numbers are more about providing access to video and giving a general indication of defensive skill. They are not the end-all be-all decider in an argument about who is a better defender. And they are definitely affected by a player's teammates For example post up numbers for Amare Stoudemire will give you the possessions where he is the man being posted up. However if he gets beaten and one of his teammates comes over and blocks the shot attempt that is a possession where Amare Stoudemire is considered the post defender and there was no score. On pick and roll defense it means that Amare Stoudemire was the big defender on pick and roll, but there isn't a consideration for help defense. In other words, defenders with good help defense around them are going to look better than somebody who does not have a good defensive team surrounding him. Stick Tim Duncan next to either of these guys and all of a sudden their numbers on defense will look much better. It's very difficult to compare Amare and David Lee because not only did they have different teammates around them, but they played different positions for the most part.

My problem with Amare Stoudemire is really not his one-on-one post defense. I just think he's a terrible team defender. He is almost always slow to react to developing plays or he just completely misses things. That was really the biggest problem with having Shaquille O'Neal here. Offensively the Phoenix Suns were incredible with Shaq and a healthy Amare Stoudemire. Defensively they were probably the worst combination of three players to ever defend the pick and roll (Nash, Shaq, and Amare). That will not show in Amare Stoudemire's individual defensive numbers on the synergy site.

By the way, one number I do remember is that on pick and roll offense Robin Lopez had something like 1.28 PPP and went to the free-throw the 22% of the time, and Amare Stoudemire was around 1.17 PPP drawing free throws 19% of the time. I think Lopez had like 75 possessions (scoring attempt, turnover, foul resulting in free throws) and Amare Stoudemire was around 330. Clearly Amare Stoudemire is a better pick and roll player, but Robin Lopez was surprisingly adept at running the pick and roll.

Now the sales pitch... $29.95 will get you access to all of the stats and more importantly all the sorted 2009-10 NBA video until 2010-11 preseason. If you are interested, it is http://www.mysynergysports.com/

Joe

 

[dreamcastrocks]

OT: but can the mods get a rimshot type smiley? Seems as if we havent had any new ones in a while

Yours truly,
T.J.

It's not really up to us anymore. We'll see what we can do.

 

[Griffin]

Here's my big problem with paying David Lee that kind of money he will get. He doesn't create his own offense.

The $12-15M figure is a bit high for a player like Lee, imo. I doubt Sarver would want to pay that, and I don't think he's worth that. But then again, the Suns won't sign many free agents if they are only willing to pay what players are actually worth. Originally people were speculating that Lee could be had in the $8-$11M range which seems a lot more reasonable to me. I like Lee, but I wouldn't want to overpay too much for him either.

My problem with Amare Stoudemire is really not his one-on-one post defense. I just think he's a terrible team defender. He is almost always slow to react to developing plays or he just completely misses things.

I agree. To me, that's probably Amare's biggest weakness. So that begs the question, would David Lee play better team defense than Amare in the Suns lineup?