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After surging onto the scene by enabling betting on political and social events, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have found a foothold in the sports space, something the NFL has admitted it was “particularly troubled” by. The rise of these largely unregulated prediction markets, which offer gambling markets beyond sportsbooks and lack the same guardrails, led NFL executive Jeff Miller to submit written testimony to the House Committee on Agriculture.
“We are particularly troubled that several sports-related futures contracts have been launched nationwide, including in jurisdictions where sports betting has not been legalized,” Miller wrote in his testimony. “These contracts fall outside the purview of state regulatory authorities and the safeguards they impose upon the industry.”
Other leagues have lacked the NFL’s hesitancy, with the MLB reaching a multiyear partnership with Polymarket and the NHL striking partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi. However, prediction market detractors recently recorded a fairly substantial win in their pushback against the platforms.
Per Next Event Horizon, on August 3, Kalshi ceased offering its sports mention markets “temporarily.” These mention markets allowed users to bet on the word choices of public figures during events, such as how many times CBS’s Tony Romo might have said, “Ohhhhhhh I don’t know, Jim!” if not for, you know.
NPR’s Bobby Allyn is reporting that sports mention markets, which have proved controversial because betting on what broadcasters say can be easily manipulated by, and/or determined in advance by, close parties, are no longer accessible.
“NEW: The CFTC has launched a probe into prediction market ‘mention markets’ as a category, where people bet millions on whether President Trump, sportscasters, executives on earnings calls say a word or not,” Allyn reported Thursday on X.
“Focus of probe is whether this kind of betting is susceptible to manipulation, “Allyn wrote. “In response, Kalshi has taken down all mention markets for sports ‘until further notice.'”
What remains to be determined is whether sports-mention markets will return. Mention markets have accounted for a relatively small share of Kalshi’s volume, peaking at 4.18% and falling to 0.17% by the time they were axed this month, although that share likely would’ve grown during football season. This lack of volume, along with the rarity of the CFTC publicly weighing in on what is and isn’t acceptable, points toward a return in the U.S. being unlikely.
While Kalshi and other prediction markets will continue to push back and argue for the legality of their operations, the pressure from the CFTC, NFL, and sportsbooks is starting to create cracks in their defenses. The disappearance of sports-mention markets may be the start of a string of losses.
The post Sports-mention markets ‘temporarily’ unavailable at Kalshi amid federal investigation appeared first on Awful Announcing.
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