Some bizarre over/under win totals from Vegas

[GatorAZ]

Team Win Total
Golden State 68.5
Boston Celtics 57.5
Philadelphia 76ers 56.5
Houston Rockets 56.5
Los Angeles Lakers 52.5
Toronto Raptors 47.5
Washington Wizards 47.5
San Antonio Spurs 45.5
Oklahoma City 44.5
Minnesota 44.5
Utah Jazz 44.5
Portland 43.5
Denver Nuggets 43.5
New Orleans 43.5
Miami Heat 43.5
Milwaukee Bucks 42.5
Indiana Pacers 41.5
New York Knicks 39.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 35.5
Charlotte Hornets 35.5
Detroit Pistons 35.5
Phoenix Suns 34.5
Dallas Mavericks 30.5
Orlando Magic 28.5
Chicago Bulls 28.5
Memphis Grizzlies 27.5
Sacramento Kings 27.5
Atlanta Hawks 26.5
Brooklyn Nets 25.5

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Betting the Warriors under 68.5 is free money

Lakers third in the West by 7 games?

Toronto won 59 games last year and the East is weaker (47.5???)

Bucks and Pacers worse with the Cavs falling apart?

Grizzlies and Kings tied?

 

[Phrazbit]

Cavs I expect will be far worse. I'd guess... tops 28 wins and in the running for dead last.

I agree about the Warriors. I don't see a 3 time champ busting their ass in the regular season with a near all time best record.

 

[Hoop Head]

How do they figure the Knicks will win 40 games without Porzingis? They haven't done anything worthwhile this offseason. They didn't get better with him sitting out.

I know Lebron will help the Lakers but they have such an oddly assembled team that I can't see them winning more than 50 games unless they can manage a trade for a quality vet. I'm not even sure who would be available for them that would be a good fit but I just can't see them making a jump like that. Playoffs, sure, but not 53 wins.

I think the Mavericks will be better than the Suns also. Not good enough for the playoffs but they'll be close. Taking the spot of the Clippers and Nuggets last year.

I almost want to bet the over on the Suns though. I think they can do that and will do that. Mainly because I think they'll make a good trade and getting in lower would be best.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

How do they figure the Knicks will win 40 games without Porzingis? They haven't done anything worthwhile this offseason. They didn't get better with him sitting out.

There was a report at one point that Porzingis "could" miss all of next season, but since then it's mainly been good news on the ACL tear, with it seeming more likely that he's back around February or so. Also, he's just a rookie, but Kevin Knox looks really really good in Summer League. That's still probably an under bet, but I see their reasoning on some levels.

 

[devilalum]

Portland 43.5?
They didn't blow up the team yet.
Do the odds makers know something we don't?

 

[elindholm]

Odds makers aren't trying to predict what the outcome will be. They're trying to predict where the betting will go. It's a big difference. Vegas's goal is for the outcome of any given event to be neutral for them. They make their money off of the margin and want to encourage as much action as possible while minimizing their own variance.

It always cracks me up when an underdog wins in a boxing match (or whatever) and people say, "Ooh, Vegas really got hit." No they didn't. They manipulated the odds in order to get the action balanced the way they wanted it.

For these O/U lines, the oddsmakers couldn't care less how any team ends up performing. They're making an initial guess as to what line will produce balanced wagering, and then they'll adjust the line once they get more information about how the betting public sees it.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Portland 43.5?
They didn't blow up the team yet.
Do the odds makers know something we don't?

The already good west just got a lot better.

Lebron

Bad teams like the suns, mavs, kings adding talent and likely not tanking again

Bad team like the griz returning to health

Western playoff teams that aren’t the warriors or rockets will likely are fewer wins. Western teams that were the worst in the league will like see more.

 

[Phrazbit]

We might see a 35 win playoff team in the east.

 

[Phrazbit]

The cycle feeding the West's dominance is becoming self perpetuating. Good west teams miss the playoffs and get lotto picks, awful east teams qualify and pick later.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

We might see a 35 win playoff team in the east.

I don't know about that. Keep in mind that those east teams will play 2/3 of their games against other east teams. It's one the reasons I would hate for them to go to 1-16 playoff system. The teams in the east with 50 wins would be nowhere near as good as the west teams with a couple less regular season wins than them.

 

[Hoop Head]

I don't know about that. Keep in mind that those east teams will play 2/3 of their games against other east teams. It's one the reasons I would hate for them to go to 1-16 playoff system. The teams in the east with 50 wins would be nowhere near as good as the west teams with a couple less regular season wins than them.

If they go to a 1-16 playoff system I would think they would change the season schedule as well. Probably making divisional matchups mean more and guarantee every team in the division faces other division teams 4 times while they switch to an NFL type of schedule for the rest. That way each division matches up with 2 other divisions each year to determine how many games they play. So if the Pacific division this year would also meet up with say the Atlantic and Southwest divisions and they have 3 games a piece for all of those matchups. The divisions they aren't matched with they'd only do the regular 1 home and 1 away matchup. That way the Suns, Clippers, Warriors, Kings, and the Lakers all play the same teams the same number of times since they're in the same division. It wouldn't be that hard to fix. Travel would increase some but that's the price of having a more balanced league.

They could also go to reformatting all of the divisions while also replacing the conferences with a National and American league like the MLB and NFL have. They could align them so the travel wouldn't be as bad.


There are some creative ideas being floated now and I think we'll see a change within the next few years that will aim to appease more teams and fans. It's sort of like the tanking discussions, now that the league has openly admitted they're looking into it we've heard more ideas about how to fix it and eventually there will be something that makes sense for everyone that is more accepted.

 

[Phrazbit]

I don't know about that. Keep in mind that those east teams will play 2/3 of their games against other east teams. It's one the reasons I would hate for them to go to 1-16 playoff system. The teams in the east with 50 wins would be nowhere near as good as the west teams with a couple less regular season wins than them.

The west has been better than the east for a while now, but in the seasons where it's REALLY bad scenarios like the one I mentioned play out. For example... in 2014 when the Suns missed the playoffs despite winning 48 games, we went 28-24 vs the West and 20-10 vs the East. Meanwhile, the Hawks made the playoffs with a 38-44 record and a perfect inverse, 10-20 vs the West, swap schedules and assume the same winning percentage and the Suns don't just make the playoffs but we're the 4 seed in the East, the Hawks meanwhile finish 13 games out of 8th place in the West.

It might seem like you play your own conference so often that it would decide it but it's 30 games out of an 82 game season. When the quality in one conference is dramatically better it gets reflected big time in the standings.

In 2003 Detroit got the 1 seed in the East with 50 wins, SIX teams in the West had equal or better records.

Just this last season, LeBron's Cavs went .500 against the West and got the 4 seed, the Nuggets went 28-24 vs the West and missed the playoffs entirely. If you swap their vs conference schedules but leave the winning percentages the same; the Cavs go 46-36 as a West team and miss the playoffs entirely, the Nuggets with the Cavs schedule win 47 games and get the 4 seed.

So... the East Conference finals representative, based purely on vs conference winning percentage and schedules being flipped, wouldn't have even made the playoffs as a Western team.

 

[AzStevenCal]

If they go to a 1-16 playoff system I would think they would change the season schedule as well.

If they were comfortable changing to a balanced schedule they would have already gone to a 1 to 16 seeding IMO. And it isn't just the added travel, it's the fact you can't play a balanced 82 game schedule with 30 teams so there will always been complaints. Right now, the league is very out of whack. Seeding all playoff teams isn't a perfect solution but it's an improvement on the status quo.

 

[Mainstreet]

Maybe the NBA selection process to be reexamined when it comes to playoff representation. Perhaps something like how college basketball selects the at-large teams. However, I do not believe the NBA is ready for the selection of teams outside of division winners. Analytics is rapidly take over the game so who knows about the future.

 

[elindholm]

The imbalanced schedule shouldn't be an issue. Each team could play 24 opponents three times each and the other five opponents twice each. You'd have one division in the opposite conference that would be your lightly scheduled one and that would rotate, so you'd still see each opponent eight or nine times every three seasons.

 

[SunsFanFirst]

I think we will be in the 40-45 win range

 

[Hoop Head]

Thought I'd bump this rather than start a new thread. Latest over/under has the Suns at 28.5 wins. I feel comfortable saying they'll be over. I may need to actually put money behind that because that seems too low.

https://sports.yahoo.com/over-under-every-nba-team-120005643.html

 

[Errntknght]

Thought I'd bump this rather than start a new thread. Latest over/under has the Suns at 28.5 wins. I feel comfortable saying they'll be over. I may need to actually put money behind that because that seems too low.

https://sports.yahoo.com/over-under-every-nba-team-120005643.html

Do you know how to get those odds without having to travel to Vegas?

 

[Hoop Head]

Do you know how to get those odds without having to travel to Vegas?

I wish. I have family in Vegas and travel there a few times a year. Perhaps someone else might be able to speak on that though. I'd be curious to find out. Especially now that sports gambling ban has been lifted. Arizona had some restrictive laws before where even Fanduel was illegal here.

 

[Yuma]

The Lakers line I can see. So much money will be going to LA they have to inflate it to the point were they can get enough under money to even out the pool of money. They need people like us going they cant win THAT many games!

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I will probably be in Vegas for work next month. If so people can paypal me their bets, I will put it in and mail you the slip. We also have some Vegas posters here who could do the same if you trusted them (this assumes you trust me of course)

 

[JCSunsfan]

I will probably be in Vegas for work next month. If so people can paypal me their bets, I will put it in and mail you the slip. We also have some Vegas posters here who could do the same if you trusted them (this assumes you trust me of course)

CS the Bookie.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Hah not a bookie since I am making zero money off it or actually processing the bets. More like a courier

 

[Chris_Sanders]

The last two years I have gone up to Vegas the weekend before the super bowl and literally put in about 50 prop bets for friends. Then I had back up in March and cash them all in and pay everyone out.

It makes my superbowl party really fun

 

[1tinsoldier]

Thought I'd bump this rather than start a new thread. Latest over/under has the Suns at 28.5 wins. I feel comfortable saying they'll be over. I may need to actually put money behind that because that seems too low.

https://sports.yahoo.com/over-under-every-nba-team-120005643.html

i was tempted to post the same thing yesterday when i saw that article.
and the writer actually takes the under on the Suns at 28!

over or under the 34.5 mark is a much harder bet but i'd still lean over