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Alabama has cleared their first College Football Playoff hurdle for 2025. Next is a much bigger obstacle in the top seeded Hoosiers. The oddsmakers do not have a lot of faith in the Crimson Tide. FanDuel has opening odds of Alabama being a 6.5 point underdog with an Over/Under of 48.5.
The game takes place on Thursday, Jan 1 which is 13 days since the Tide’s previous game with Oklahoma. It’s a nice break for Bama to rest up and get healthy. Indiana has not taken the field since beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship back on Dec 6. That is 26 days. They should be healthy but are they getting rusty and fat?
Last postseason, Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, and Penn State all had to play in the first round and all four won and then defeated higher seeds in the second round. Granted, that two of the opponents were auto-bids Boise and Arizona State. But the other two second round losers were 1-seed Oregon and 2-seed Georgia. It makes one wonder if there is an advantage to playing in the first round. I suppose we’ll find out soon.
INDIANA
Only twice were the Hoosiers underdogs this season.
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| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/30/25 | Old Dominion | -23.5 / 53.5 | Won 27-14 | Lost / Under |
| 09/06/25 | Kennesaw State | -35.5 / 51.5 | Won 56-9 | Won / Over |
| 09/12/25 | Indiana State | -47.5 / 60.5 | Won 73-0 | Won / Over |
| 09/20/25 | Illinois | -6.5 / 51.5 | Won 63-10 | Won / Over |
| 09/27/25 | @Iowa | -9.5 / 47.5 | Won 20-15 | Lost / Under |
| 10/11/25 | @Oregon | +6.5 / 51.5 | Won 30-20 | Won / Under |
| 10/18/25 | Michigan State | -26.5 / 49.5 | Won 38-13 | Lost / Over |
| 10/25/25 | UCLA | -27.5 / 53.5 | Won 56-6 | Won / Over |
| 11/01/25 | @Maryland | -21.5 / 50.5 | Won 55-10 | Won / Over |
| 11/08/25 | @Penn State | -14 / 49.5 | Won 27-24 | Lost / Over |
| 11/15/25 | Wisconsin | -28.5 / 43.5 | Won 31-7 | Lost / Under |
| 11/28/25 | @Purdue | -28.5 / 54.5 | Won 56-3 | Won / Over |
| 12/06/25 | Ohio State * | +3.5 / 45.5 | Won 13-10 | Won / Under |
* Game played at neutral location
Indiana was 8-5 against the spread including two upsets (Oregon, Ohio State). The Hoosiers were favored over eight opponents by more than three touchdowns each and double digits over nine.
Putting aside the many cupcakes and conference doormats that Indy faced this fall, they destroyed Illinois 63-10 in a home game back in September. That was followed by two tough road games – at Iowa (won 20-15) and at Oregon (won 30-20) that were divided by a bye week. The Hoos won at Penn State 27-24 in November and then the 13-10 victory in the B1GCG. In short, they have taken care of business, but have had some close games against upper echelon foes.
ALABAMA
Alabama was a dog three times this season. Twice, they won outright (UGA1, Okl2).
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| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/30/25 | @Florida State | -13.5 / 47.5 | Lost 17-31 | Lost / Over |
| 09/06/25 | Louisiana-Monroe | -34.5 / 49.5 | Won 73-0 | Won / Over |
| 09/13/25 | Wisconsin | -18.5 / 45.5 | Won 38-14 | Won / Over |
| 09/27/25 | @Georgia | +2.5 / 53.5 | Won 24-21 | Won / Under |
| 10/04/25 | Vanderbilt | -12.5 / 57.5 | Won 30-14 | Won / Under |
| 10/11/25 | @Missouri | -3 / 51.5 | Won 27-24 | Push / Under |
| 10/18/25 | Tennessee | -9.5 / 61.5 | Won 37-20 | Won / Under |
| 10/25/25 | @South Carolina | -12.5 / 47.5 | Won 29-22 | Lost / Over |
| 11/08/25 | LSU | -10 / 49.5 | Won 20-9 | Won / Under |
| 11/15/25 | Oklahoma | -6.5 / 46.5 | Lost 21-23 | Lost / Under |
| 11/22/25 | Eastern Illinois | -50.5 / 57.5 | Won 56-0 | Won / Under |
| 11/29/25 | @Auburn | -7 / 48.5 | Won 27-20 | Push / Under |
| 12/06/25 | Georgia | +1.5 / 48.5 | Lost 7-28* | Lost / Under |
| 12/19/25 | @Oklahoma | +1.5 / 42.5 | Won 34-24 | Won / Over |
* Game played at neutral location
Alabama is 8-4-2 against the spread. The Tide and opponents went under the point total in their final four regular season games, plus the SECCG. Last Friday, the Bama offense looked a lot like the September/October offense. Will that continue?
MATH
With an over/under of 6.5 and 48.5 point spread, the final score could look something like INDY 28, BAMA 21. Does that sound about right? Or are the oddsmakers flat out crazy? FanDuel has many interesting prop bets on over/unders like individual passing yards, receiving yards, rushing yards, touchdowns scored, and more. Check back for any spread or O/U changes.
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