Smartest man in the room draft theory

TigToad

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I read this article a week ago, and it has stuck with me.


One take away from watching the draft and living on ASFN all weekend was how often I read the phrase “smartest man in the room” as a disparagement when we traded down. I think this philosophy is backwards.

Drafting is imprecise and a first round pick is only 58% likely to become a starter. We have a history of draft misses, as does every nfl team. I think this article does a good job of highlighting a winning draft strategy is to have more picks than the other guys. Yes, our scouting department and evaluators need to be the best possible, but in the end, these humans are going to become what they are capable of becoming or they won’t. If we cannot predict that 100%, we need to have more chances. Of course, I’m super happy not trading down and losing MHJ, but I would be very cautious about trading up.

If we are to give up additional draft capital to get ‘our guy’ that, to me, is a sign someone things they are the smartest person in the room. That they are smarter than other teams and can get winners with less picks. I think the smartest, and least selfish GMs are the ones who are flexible and stockpile. Now, bring on the pre season.
 

CardNots

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I read this article a week ago, and it has stuck with me.


One take away from watching the draft and living on ASFN all weekend was how often I read the phrase “smartest man in the room” as a disparagement when we traded down. I think this philosophy is backwards.

Drafting is imprecise and a first round pick is only 58% likely to become a starter. We have a history of draft misses, as does every nfl team. I think this article does a good job of highlighting a winning draft strategy is to have more picks than the other guys. Yes, our scouting department and evaluators need to be the best possible, but in the end, these humans are going to become what they are capable of becoming or they won’t. If we cannot predict that 100%, we need to have more chances. Of course, I’m super happy not trading down and losing MHJ, but I would be very cautious about trading up.

If we are to give up additional draft capital to get ‘our guy’ that, to me, is a sign someone things they are the smartest person in the room. That they are smarter than other teams and can get winners with less picks. I think the smartest, and least selfish GMs are the ones who are flexible and stockpile. Now, bring on the pre season.
I believe it’s the player not the pick. I don’t blame the picker:) I do agree utilization of draft capital is critical. Monti seems to understand this.
 
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