SI Rams Beat Writer: Rams Should Not Underestimate Cards, BR Predicts 10-7

[cardinals2025]

Rams Should Not Underestimate Cardinals in 2025

Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams have a new threat to worry about for their division crown. As mentioned before, the Arizona Cardinals are building a monster

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"The Cardinals have the pieces to make noise based on the many defensive moves they made, but they won’t get far unless Kyler Murray plays better than last season." Wrote Manzano.

"Murray struggled with the deep ball and was comfortable playing as a patient pocket quarterback. Perhaps Murray leans on his legs more to form a stout rushing attack with running backs James Conner and second-year player Trey Benson. Arizona is set at tackle with Paris Johnson Jr. and Jonah Williams, but the team could have a few camp battles for the interior spots."

"As for coach Jonathan Gannon’s defense, this could be a top-10 unit with the depth and talent the Cardinals added on the defensive front. They finally have a quality No. 1 edge rusher in Josh Sweat, who could receive help from 2024 first-round pick Darius Robinson."

It's not that they could, it's more like they will. Gannon has rebuilt his defensive line in the same vision as his Philadelphia Eagles defense and they added Michigan corner to an interesting, veteran defensive back room with Budda Baker and Sean Murphy-Bunting.

"Defensive tackle Walter Nolen, this year’s first-round pick, is an intriguing prospect with plenty of upside. Nolen had a few character concerns heading into the draft, but he’ll get to lean on veterans Calais Campbell and Dalvin Tomlinson. The secondary could receive a boost from rookie cornerback Will Johnson, who surprisingly fell to the second round due to medical concerns. Safety Budda Baker remains a standout playmaker."

Is 10 wins far?

"Be wary of the Cardinals. They smacked the Rams around in their first matchup in Arizona, and if Murray could've hit McBride in his hands and not his face, the Cardinals would've completed the sweep.

Remember, had the Rams lost their second matchup to Arizona, they would have been playing a win-and-in game against Seattle instead of resting their starters in the season finale."

Finally someone has the balls to say it.

Cardinals Predicted For Record Improvement; Playoff Bound?

The Arizona Cardinals are hoping to clinch their first winning season since 2021 in the upcoming campaign. Bleacher Report writer Moe Moton believes the Cardina

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"The Arizona Cardinals doubled their win total from the 2023 season. They played at the level of a playoff contender in the first half of the 2024 campaign. However, the Cardinals lost five of their last seven games. Between late November and early January, their offense sputtered in crucial moments," Moton wrote.

"Head coach Jonathan Gannon is "really excited" about Marvin Harrison Jr.'s second term after the wideout had an inefficient rookie campaign, recording a 53.4 percent catch rate.

"Assuming quarterback Kyler Murray worked on his rapport with Harrison, they should be able to take Arizona's offense to another level, specifically in late-game situations. The Cardinals can exploit weaker pass defenses with Harrison and tight end Trey McBride.
"With the addition of Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell, Arizona will see the most improvement in its run defense, which ranked 20th last season. Edge-rusher Josh Sweat and cornerback Will Johnson can shore up the pass defense.

"The offensive line has to perform well for the Cardinals to reach double-digit wins. Right now, that unit is a question mark, with a few average interior linemen between Jonah Williams, who's coming off an injury-shortened season, and ascending left tackle Paris Johnson Jr.

"Nonetheless, Murray's willingness to make more plays with his legs could offset potential lapses in pass protection."

The offensive line just has to play decent. We have multiple ways to 10 wins. Anything more would probably require a more dominant offensive line.

In Moton's prediction, the Cardinals will lose the NFC West crown to the 11-6 Los Angeles Rams, but their double-digit win total would be enough to get them into the playoffs as a Wild Card


11 wins for the team that won 3 division games by 12 points total with the toughest schedule in the division this year?

With Stafford and McVay who posted 12 and 13 pts of total off vs the below avg 49ers and Cardinals defense in crunch time?

After AZ outscored the Rams 50-23 in 2 games, and were a helmet away from a sweep? Our defense improved more than theirs did.

You could put 15 NFL QBs on the Rams in the 2nd half of the season and they would all make it to the game vs PHI.

 

[cardinals2025]

AZ 2024 WHICH HAD A HARDER SCHEDULE = AZ 2020.

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Rams Overestimated Chance of Winning Each Game

4 NFL POINTS = 62%

7 NFL POINTS = 75%

12.5 NFL POINTS = 82%


VS HOU = 57%

AT TEN = 85%

AT PHI = 40%

VS IND = 70%

VS SF = 68%

AT BAL = 40%

VS JAX = 70%

VS NO = 87%

VS SEA = 66%

VS TB = 52%

AT CAR = 65%

AT AZ = 36%

VS DET = 43%

AT SEA = 53%

AT ATL = 64%

VS AZ = 62%


= /17 = 9.58 WINS

11 WINS DISPROVEN.

 

[football karma]

i think we should be encouraged by the fact that the Cards matched up well with the Rams in 2024. It sure beats many of the prior performances where they looked outclassed.

 

[kerouac9]

I can't imagine getting up at 5 am, looking at these posts, and then being like "Job well done here."

 

[MadCardDisease]

Sports Illustrated isn't a real thing anymore. It's basically fans writing "articles" for what remains of their sad website.

 

[cardinals2025]

I can't imagine getting up at 5 am, looking at these posts, and then being like "Job well done here."

I concede the arguement. You win.

 

[cardinals2025]

Sports Illustrated isn't a real thing anymore. It's basically fans writing "articles" for what remains of their sad website.

I agree. Facts and inferences are automatically irrelevant if on a website I don't respect.

 

[kerouac9]

Sports Illustrated isn't a real thing anymore. It's basically fans writing "articles" for what remains of their sad website.

There are still good journalists doing good journalism at SI! You just have to practice some discipline and media literacy to ensure you're not getting Kyler Burd.

 

[kerouac9]

AZ 2024 WHICH HAD A HARDER SCHEDULE = AZ 2020.

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Rams Overestimated Chance of Winning Each Game

4 NFL POINTS = 62%

7 NFL POINTS = 75%

12.5 NFL POINTS = 82%


VS HOU = 57%

AT TEN = 85%

AT PHI = 40%

VS IND = 70%

VS SF = 68%

AT BAL = 40%

VS JAX = 70%

VS NO = 87%

VS SEA = 66%

VS TB = 52%

AT CAR = 65%

AT AZ = 36%

VS DET = 43%

AT SEA = 53%

AT ATL = 64%

VS AZ = 62%


= /17 = 9.58 WINS

11 WINS DISPROVEN.

Indeed. QED fools. What don't you understand here? 11 Wins disproven.

 

[NMCard]

Condensed it for myself.

In summary, the Cardinals’ success hinges on Murray’s growth, a decent offensive line, and a stout defense, making them a playoff contender but likely falling short of the NFC West crown.

 

[SECTION 11]

I would rather fold fitted sheets.

 

[SECTION 11]

AZ 2024 WHICH HAD A HARDER SCHEDULE = AZ 2020.

You must be registered for see images attach

Rams Overestimated Chance of Winning Each Game

4 NFL POINTS = 62%

7 NFL POINTS = 75%

12.5 NFL POINTS = 82%


VS HOU = 57%

AT TEN = 85%

AT PHI = 40%

VS IND = 70%

VS SF = 68%

AT BAL = 40%

VS JAX = 70%

VS NO = 87%

VS SEA = 66%

VS TB = 52%

AT CAR = 65%

AT AZ = 36%

VS DET = 43%

AT SEA = 53%

AT ATL = 64%

VS AZ = 62%


= /17 = 9.58 WINS

11 WINS DISPROVEN.

I’m on your side, as far as your overall points go, but I’m not really buying this one. It’s not 22 guys out on the field throwing calculations at each other.

 

[cardinals2025]

I’m on your side, as far as your overall points go, but I’m not really buying this one. It’s not 22 guys out on the field throwing calculations at each other.

Fair enough. Simple explanation is Rams have to play PHI, DET and BAL and the rest of the division doesn’t have anywhere near a schedule that hard.

Secondly, I just don’t see SEA winning 11 after being lucky to win a few games last year especially with all their changes.

Finally, while I expect SF to obviously improve, they have a long way to go to address the defense that was 28th in ppg last year. Considering the fact every defense in the division is likely to improve, it is very unlikely they won’t end up as the worst defense again. Worst def has never won the NFC West.

So I think 10 wins will either get us the division. I could be wrong and SEA or LAR win 10 but I think there is a good chance our divisional record also improves from 3-3. I just usually assume everyone splits and goes from
there. But if like the Rams sweep SEA cuz Darnold played horrible in two games vs them last year, so that continues, then they could to get 11 I guess.

I just think our division as a whole is the most mediocre as a whole it’s ever been.

Everyone could win between 8-10 games.

 

[oaken1]

Fair enough. Simple explanation is Rams have to play PHI, DET and BAL and the rest of the division doesn’t have anywhere near a schedule that hard.

Secondly, I just don’t see SEA winning 11 after being lucky to win a few games last year especially with all their changes.

Finally, while I expect SF to obviously improve, they have a long way to go to address the defense that was 28th in ppg last year. Considering the fact every defense in the division is likely to improve, it is very unlikely they won’t end up as the worst defense again. Worst def has never won the NFC West.

So I think 10 wins will either get us the division. I could be wrong and SEA or LAR win 10 but I think there is a good chance our divisional record also improves from 3-3. I just usually assume everyone splits and goes from
there. But if like the Rams sweep SEA cuz Darnold played horrible in two games vs them last year, so that continues, then they could to get 11 I guess.

I just think our division as a whole is the most mediocre as a whole it’s ever been.

Everyone could win between 8-10 games.

Good thing we are gonna win 12 then. Division banner is a lock

 

[kerouac9]

Seahawks were 6-2 in games decided by 7 points or fewer last year and won 10 games against a win expectancy of 8.7.

The NFC South and AFC South are the real variables here. If they stink again, each team in the division should have a baseline of 5-7 wins before accounting for division play and the rest of the schedule.

I'm in no hurry to return to the time of the NFC Worst.

 

[cardinals2025]

Seahawks were 6-2 in games decided by 7 points or fewer last year and won 10 games against a win expectancy of 8.7.

The NFC South and AFC South are the real variables here. If they stink again, each team in the division should have a baseline of 5-7 wins before accounting for division play and the rest of the schedule.

I'm in no hurry to return to the time of the NFC Worst.

That is true about SEA but 3 of those wins were very fortunate.

1. Winning at SF on 4th and 15 in the last 10 secs when Geno ran it all the way in.

2. A 16 pt comeback on the road vs the Jets.

3. A 6-3 victory vs the Bears in CHI. A road team winning with 2 FGs is like unheard of in the modern era.

Add onto the fact it is likely we will finally beat them once with Geno gone, and you have maybe 3 more losses from these 4 games.

On the other hand, MINN also came back to beat SEA in SEA in the final minute and they lost to the Giants in a game they should have won.

That is prob how they are getting the 8.7.

NFL 2025 Season Pythagorean Win Totals from 2024 Data - TheOddsBreakers

The band WhiteSnake said it best. Here I go again. Football is often described as a game of inches, where being off by even one can determine the difference between victory and defeat in a league with limited opportunities. The unique shape of the football itself introduces a degree of...

theoddsbreakers.com

Look how low the Rams are on this one.






The Panthers are underrated, especially after their off season moves. Improving their def is a big deal. This is how they were playing before our game last year.

Bryce Young was performing as a top 15 QB before even playing us. And it was their running game that hurt us as well.

We probably overlooked them to say the least especially on defense.

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This is not indicative of a horrible team. This looks even better than how AZ was competing in 2023.

I think they can win 6-7 games this year and while I still expect us to beat them in AZ, they are going to beat someone in our division.

Then you have the Bucs who had a win expectancy over 11.5. They are going to win some games vs our division.

Same goes for HOU who we all have to play. JAX is a dark horse candidate to be .500 this year. Lawrence is back and they had the best rookie WR last season.

Many of their games were close, including a 12-7 loss to the Vikings. People think SF is gonna get some automatic wins with a supposedly "easy schedule" but their def will hurt them.

 

[kerouac9]

People think SF is gonna get some automatic wins with a supposedly "easy schedule" but their def will hurt them.

You keep saying this, but what makes you think their 29th scoring defense ranking is more indicative of their real potential than their 8th ranked yardage defense?

 

[oaken1]

You keep saying this, but what makes you think their 29th scoring defense ranking is more indicative of their real potential than their 8th ranked yardage defense?

It's almost like their opponents were playing on a short field...which usually is not the defenses fault.

 

[cardinals2025]

You keep saying this, but what makes you think their 29th scoring defense ranking is more indicative of their real potential than their 8th ranked yardage defense?

Here is an interesting comparison...AZ defense suffered from being 32nd in time of possession. SF defense suffered from being 31st in average field position.

When your average starting field position is horrible on def, you give up less overall yards. SF allowed 57 more pts. They were 30th in rushing TD's allowed.



Look even if we give them that the Pythagorean win total says they should have won 9 games, for some reason they didnt. Just like we didn't.

So there obviously deficiencies, not so much the offense scoring pts, compared to the decline of their offensive line which is a new problem for them.

The fact that we scored 75 pts in two games vs them would be one among many reasons.

Also the fact that their EPA was 22nd.

The San Francisco 49ers defense's Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) has shown a mixed performance in recent seasons.

They have declined from 4th in 2022 to 14th in 2024.

Also, all you have to do is track who they lost in free agency on defense.


DVOA and EPA are often considered more important than yardage allowed and ppg for a defense.

Last time they were 6-10, their offense was not as good and they played the same strength of schedule.

OSRS 0.9 in 2024

OSRS 0.2 in 2020

Which means their offense performed on a higher level vs similar competition.

This was their worst defensive performance since 2018.

Compare their PA to the last 4 seasons. From 3rd last year to 29th is a massive change.

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Here

 

[kerouac9]

They have declined from 4th (in defensive DVOA) in 2022 to 14th in 2024.

You understand that this is evidence that their defense was better than that scoring ranking last year?

And that DVOA is more predictive of future performance than this other jumble of stats you’re chaffing into the thread?

 

[cardinals2025]

You understand that this is evidence that their defense was better than that scoring ranking last year?

And that DVOA is more predictive of future performance than this other jumble of stats you’re chaffing into the thread?

Don't imply I only have one reason and then get upset when I give you more data.

I put my main point in bold for a reason.

When your average starting field position is the worst in the league, you give up less overall yards.

EPA is incredibly predictive.

The 2021 Arizona Cardinals are an example of this on offense and defense.

Why the Arizona Cardinals are struggling down the stretch yet again

The Arizona Cardinals are faltering down the stretch of the regular season, but who deserves the blame? PFF's Arjun Menon dives in.

www.pff.com

 

[cardinals2025]

Seahawks were 6-2 in games decided by 7 points or fewer last year and won 10 games against a win expectancy of 8.7.

The NFC South and AFC South are the real variables here. If they stink again, each team in the division should have a baseline of 5-7 wins before accounting for division play and the rest of the schedule.

I'm in no hurry to return to the time of the NFC Worst.

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This is why SEA started so hot.

QB's they played:

Bo Nix, in his first start ever.

Jacoby Brissett, backup to Drake Maye.

Skylar Thompson, backup to Tua


They had the easiest possible schedule to start and that accounts for 2 of those wins you bring up.

6 weeks thru the season, the opponents they played had the least amount of wins compared to any other NFL schedule.

Which SEA fans conveniently seem to have forgot about.

8.7 is more accurate than the end result of 10 in SEA's case.

Especially when you add on the 6-3 win vs CHI in CHI. Which is so incredibly lucky I don't think I need to go into any detail.

 

[cardinals2025]

You understand that this is evidence that their defense was better than that scoring ranking last ye

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So which is it then? Are the 49ers better than their 6-11 record or are the Rams not as good as their 10-7 record implied?

If you are going to stake it all on this statistic, both can't be true.

I think there is a disconnect because Stafford is a very good playoff QB, substantially better than during the last few regular seasons.

That is where he shines much more, but they still have to get there.

 

[kerouac9]

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So which is it then? Are the 49ers better than their 6-11 record or are the Rams not as good as their 10-7 record implied?

If you are going to stake it all on this statistic, both can't be true.

I think there is a disconnect because Stafford is a very good playoff QB, substantially better than during the last few regular seasons.

That is where he shines much more, but they still have to get there.

Both are true. Those aren’t dependent results.

i don’t understand why this is hard.

 

[cardinals2025]

Both are true. Those aren’t dependent results.

i don’t understand why this is hard.

You are supposed to be showing how DVOA is relavant and my other stats are jumbled.

We don't learn anything with DVOA about the 49ers and Rams that a pessimistic Cardinals fan wouldn't already claim to know.


It sure looks like Seattle was not a typical 10 win team and is more so playing for the wildcard this year unless Darnold is somehow lights out.

1. The hot start vs the easiest record until week 6, almost blowing 2 games to two different backup QB's in the process.

2. Fortunate win vs CHI and a 16 point comeback to beat NYJ

3. Loss to NYG and a 2-5 record vs teams over .500 in 2024.

4. Sweeping the Cardinals