Scouting the NBA releases its final edition

[MastersofCombat]

2008 NCAA Player Evaluations are complete: http://scoutingthenba.com
The player evaluations of 1122 players in NCAA were completed and the final edition has been released for this season of 2008. This was a fantastic year for player evaluations and many players that are not in the mainstream media may have a future at the next level.

The ScoutingGuru is a program that uses physics combined with collegiate production.

2007 Draft
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Changes: Versions
For those of you that have been keeping track and wondering why a player like DJ Strawberry changed from 17 to 18.
It was due to version 4.2 introduction.

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2008 we would like to note a couple changes which led us to 4.2.
We are using the player evaluations (minus) -7.5 for the 2007 season production highs of Roy Hibbert, Jamont Gordon, James Gist, Luc Mbah a Moute, Kyle Weaver, and Brian Butch.
We are using the player evaluations -15.0 for the 2006 season production highs of Joey Dorsey, Shawn James, Ronald Steele, Courtney Lee, and Richard Roby.
It is our belief that if a player can play at NBA standard during any one year with the right type of coaching or offense it should be easier to get that person back to the level they once played at, rather than to teach someone how to get to a level they have never performed at.

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Thanks to those people that have sent the emails over time I tried to respond to everyone of you over the last 3 nites. Hopefully, you'll understand I put nearly 1000 hours into this seasons evaluations and to those skeptics no there is no human influence into these numbers. It is information placed into a computer program and the rankings in tiers are done -200 - +200. Players that break 0 could play somewhere in the world professionally. The higher the number the more likely that player could play in the NBA.

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This is a deep draft based more on potential/physics than actual production. So you can bet there are going to be some big time winners in this draft and big time losers. Especially if fans try to evaluate some of these picks and come to a determination after one or two seasons. Many of these players this season have incredible ceilings but low collegiate production to match. Teams with great player development personel could look like geniuses.
What makes this draft class so special is not the top, because theres just nothing out of the ordinary at the top. What makes it special is TIER VII and VIII being so numerous in players.

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This draft is not going to turn very many teams around initially, but within a few years these players could make gigantic impacts on the league. Even Gordons, Bayless, and Mayo could've done far more for their rookie campaigns in the class of 2009. Those 3 players all need a little more court maturity to make as an immediate impact as they would in the following year. Those three have really high ceilings and any of the three could be number 1 overall next season.
A player like Kevin Love and Joey Dorsey are pretty much what you see is what you get from both ends of the spectrum. Many teams would like to have players like these with NBA bodies ready to play the NBA game even if they are not going to lite the NBA on fire. They are at the very least surefire prospects.

http://scoutingthenba.com


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[YouJustGotSUNSD]

A) I dont get it

B) Any external links to follow your post?

C) No comment or topic discussion to add to your monumental copy-paste efforts?

D) Did I just read "quantum physics?"

 

[nathan]

Link: http://scoutingthenba.com/

No offense, but the color scheme and the use of frames is so 1998.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

So they break down their own tier system, yet have voids in the 2nd and 3rd tiers?

 

[jandaman]

atleast its a more realistic take on the draft.

People expecting most of the first round picks to be starter quality will be dissapointed.

For the Suns, Donten Green is a high risk high reward pick, as mentioned in all draft analysis, his skill set is unique enough and he is fairly athletic. Put him on a team where coaching and developmental is wel preached and he can develop that confidence and attitude... combine that with his skill set and physical traits and abilities... he has a good chance of being a "special" player.

 

[MastersofCombat]

The voids in the 2nd and 3rd are for this season if you go to past seasons on the left hand side youll see a few people are in the 2nd and 3rd Tier since 2004.

Again think of evaluating 1100 players and without any outside influence this program spits out where they should go in the draft based on quantum physics and collegiate production.

This is not for everyone.... mostly for students of the game or people that really like to scout players in the NCAA

 

[MastersofCombat]

Link: http://scoutingthenba.com/

No offense, but the color scheme and the use of frames is so 1998.

Lol its ok Im a Cobol Language writer that still will write in DOS sometimes. So not very "hip" on all the latest trends of formatting frames beyond what Ive done.

Appreciate the bearing with me on that....

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

Well if they use "quantum physics" for their analysis, I'm sold!

Excuse me now, I have to apply my daily dose of snake oil before I sign a deal for this Florida swampland real estate venture.

 

[tobiazz]

Not to rip on it too much, but Chris Paul was marked as third tier--right next to Sean May. Watching them play in the NCAA it was apparent Paul would be a stud at the NBA level and Sean May would be a borderline starter. Is there a random number thrown in somewhere that lead to the quantum physics reference?

 

[tobiazz]

I think these rankings, both current and past, seem much more in line with reality than the usual mocks.

 

[MastersofCombat]

Not to rip on it too much, but Chris Paul was marked as third tier--right next to Sean May. Watching them play in the NCAA it was apparent Paul would be a stud at the NBA level and Sean May would be a borderline starter. Is there a random number thrown in somewhere that lead to the quantum physics reference?

Wow.. Truth be known Chris Paul was the 4th overall pick in the draft. I rated Chris in Tier III that season. However the program did rank him in Tier II the season before. Without having stats in front of me the year of college at some play in that ranking also. With all of that being said Chris Paul went number 1 on our board.
That was also due that the program was programmed that any 7ft player would be a center unless there was prove positive he wouldnt play that position. That caused Andrew Bogut to go 5th overall on our board.
The thing that bugs me most about that draft is not Chris or Andrew it is Deron Williams going 8th overall or (6-12 if going by Tiers). Even with that being said the program places players in Tiers for private workouts. That way something is off +/- a private workout might help to answer.

To be honest Sean May is still very productive his biggest problem has always been food and the effects it has on his body. Now he is a victim of one problem after another which has kept him off the court.

Although what I did feel like a find on was Danny Granger whom I had ranked 3rd and maybe while that was a little high. It is still closer to the type of player he is today than the 17th pick from which he was chosen at..

I do get ya though...and thanks for comments

 

[tobiazz]

To be honest Sean May is still very productive his biggest problem has always been food and the effects it has on his body.

Hehe. I think the tiers are a great reminder that most of the players drafted will not be very effective. It is silly to trade a productive player, like Barbosa, unless you can get a very high pick in return.

 

[MastersofCombat]

Yea this is one of the biggest POTENTIAL drafts of all time, however theres not alot of instant impact here, without taking away from a teams chemistry. Dont get me wrong if your a horribad team any help immediately would be appreciated and applied.
The crazy thing is some team drafting in the late 20s is going to steal some player that might one day be an animal in this league if they develop him correctly. Maybe quite a few players at that....But there really isnt any help immediately after the first 8 picks.

 

[Irish]

Math systems are only as good as the underlying assumptions. I was impressed with some of the things the WIN system does in adjusting for the level of opposition.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/2008-Win-Scores-NBA-Draft-Preview-2932/

IMHO Ranking Thompson at #11 based on stats is crazy considering he played for Rider. Likewise, George Hill at #19 played for the Indiana University Purdue University Initute (IUPUI), and Reggie Williams #26) is from Virginia Military Institute (all offense and no defense team) are open to question. Thompason is generally viewed as bubble guy and the others are mid second rounds on most mocks.

Rush is rumored to be a lottery pick (the Cavs want to trade up), yet he's ranked #33 and is ranked below Shan Foster at #29 who may not get drafted. (Shan is one dimensional shooter who has not made an impact at either Portland or the Combine).

If I was working on a project like this, I'd want to know why there are so many unintuitive results. Either the model is wrong or it is picking up stuff not being recognized by anyone else (if so, why aren't they?) I work as a financial analyst, so I've had a lot of experience with dealing with models that produce "odd" results. I don't just reject the results, but I know I've got to give an indepth explantion of every oddity.

 

[MastersofCombat]

Irish:
All I can say is every player there has far more put into the compilation than their offensive stats. Otherwise JJ Redick and Adam Morrison both were the most lethal collegiate players that the game has known for quite some time. One barely made the grade to be a starter, the other will forever ride the pine with spot duty.

As far as Rush goes remember there are some teams that wont even ask him to try out. He had a severe rupture of the ACL and it docked him a little amount of points in the durability factor. I think late first round early second is far more reasonable than a late lottery pick. However, that is simply because this draft is deep. I like Rush and think without a blown knee he shouldve been a late lottery pick. Your gambling millions on a player that is operating on 75-80pct of a knee. I heard it is believed he lost 3 inches on his vertical alone if you want to try and understand how it has affected him.

Jason Thompson is a stud and by year two will be producing heavy for some team. Make no mistake about national media and what Ive been doing. I had DJ Strawberry as a mid-late first round pick. National media felt the Suns last pick was a waste. I actually had DJ higher than Alando and looked who was on the roster longer.

George Hill is a stud I dont care if he went to IUPUI, scouting this player you will see the media has simply decided to overlook him as they did Rodney Stuckey whom I had number 5 overall in last seasons draft.

Shan Foster is the best pure shooter in the draft hands down. He may not go high but I dont place players in drafting order I simply list players ranking per evaluation.

Theres always one media outlet copying another... I swear theres very little originality in scouting players in the nba. There are some decent scouts that carry the weight of the entire draft. Everyone else ponys up behind their work claiming it as their own. I just dont get how you can claim to be a scout and not view at least 100 players or more.
I evaluated over 1100 this season, im sure as numbers guy you can appreciate that time spent. Which was just over 962hours according to the program.

 

[MastersofCombat]

Lets do this as of this date no drafting site has Jason Thompson in the first round.
If this doesnt turn out to be a stud then everytime I come in boom headshot....lol

But I believe Jason is a top 15 player coming in and yes I also believe he will be quicker to adapt to the NBA than 90pct of the rest of the rookies. Maybe 5 or 6 will have as good of a rookie / sophmore campaign.

If Im right does it ever right the ship this computer is on? I think he would be the best pick for the Suns for that matter at 15 hows that...
He will be a man next to Amare this guy is a bruiser waiting for the next stop...

Put me down as drafting Jason Thompson for the Suns

 

[Irish]

Here is what draftexpress says of Shan Forster

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Shan-Foster-434/

NBA Pre-Draft Camp, Day Two
May 29, 2008
Shan Foster was a big disappointment once again, continuing the same trend we saw in the morning and the day before. He looks completely out of his element mentally, forcing bad shots and even air-balling one 3-pointer by about five feet, which is completely uncharacteristic of the player widely considered the top shooter in this draft class. He got chased off the 3-point line way too easily, getting caught into the trap of being forced to use his ball-handling skills, which he is much less effective at than just spotting up from behind the arc. He looks like he’s putting way too much pressure on himself, and will need to settle down a bit and remember what got him here. He unfortunately doesn’t bring enough else to the table besides his shooting to be able to be as cold as he’s been thus far.

Weaknesses:

• Frame
• Strength
• First step
• Explosiveness
• Ball-handling skills
• Left hand
• Ability to get to free throw line
• Lateral quickness
• Fighting through screens
• One-dimensional?
• Streaky

His profile scremes Kopono. He may be useful, but without any characteristics of a top defender.

Thompson strikes me as just another big project.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jason-Thompson-594/

At the same time, he played little to no defense, lost his focus and failed to box out his opponents for rebounds on some key possessions, and showed an all-around awareness, toughness and basketball IQ that leaves a lot to be desired. At times he seems too comfortable just blending in, not appearing to be very comfortable trying to dominate his weak opponents, and being all too happy being the nice guy who feeds his teammates on the perimeter rather than trying to help his team by carrying them offensively.


Weaknesses

• Didn’t always dominate against weak competition
• Gives up position in the post
• Struggles guarding perimeter
• Extremely poor all-around defender
• Lacks focus
• Suspect Basketball IQ/Awareness
• Doesn’t know his limitations
• Settles for bad shots
• Lacks toughness/Not always physical enough
• Needs to add strength

Since when I evalute centers my first criteria is defense and toughness, guys like this turn me off big time.

As for Hill, I think he's a real sleeper in the mid second round but not first round. In any case, the system DX suggests makes it clear that Hill's effectivenss was far lower against top 100 teams.
http://xlssports.googlepages.com/2008NCAAProspectTableDX.htm

 

[MastersofCombat]

First off remember this that evaluation was done by an individual that if you look at those weaknesses and take them to heart Jason Thompson should never play basketball ever again. What your not understanding about scouting is what are the hurdles with any recruit.
No one outside the top pick or two is going to waltz into the nba and put up collegiate numbers. You find the mode and you say can we teach him the rest in a hurry or will it be a project.
Remember the reason he is at Rider is he was 6-7 in high school he grew 4 inches and gained 30 lbs to 6-11 250lbs.

Everyone one of those areas of weakness are correctable even though some are highly opinionated.

Again that site makes drafting Jason Thompson horrible and I have no idea in the world what that crap is DX has for computer rankings. That makes zero since cause it has their projected player ratings 1-60 then it has random numbers that dont align with players position nor does it suggest most of those players can play.


Look bottomline we will see soon how this turns out. my guess after I have sent over 45emails to places for scouts to view this season youll see JT run up the chart. I have been doing this for 5 years now you can track every year I have done it by the side bar area.
Please remember 100 people can watch a game and youll have alot of different stories about the game and the teams they are rooting for and against. WIth a computer it shows no favoritism by popularity

 

[MastersofCombat]

UPDATE:

Every site out there had Jason Thompson 2nd round

Every Site had Mario Chalmers outside of lottery


Now it appears Mario Chalmers may go as early as 12th according to CHad Ford
Jason Thompson may go 14th to the Golden State Warriors.


Seriously the only person missing: scouting report on Jamont Gordon 13-22 Tier.

Also have Kevin Love barely jumping passed OJ Mayo and Jerryd Bayless.

Roy Hibbert I have in before the teens.

All of these things are starting to happen to make the site that much more accurate.

Put in almost a 1000 hours on this since February scouting 1100 players. Made sure there was no outside influence. The program did this all on its own.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is in my first round would be nice to see that happen. Im betting on Boston Celtics drafting Richard to add to their defense.

 

[MastersofCombat]

1 more thing is I released this final edition on 6-19 about 7pm. Look at the website hit count. CRAZY!!!


These are hits to the websites mainpage

06/17... 06/18.... 06/19.... 06/20....... 06/21..... 06/22.... 06/23
..19.... .. 56 ....... 532 .... 1,124 .. .... 494 ...... 605........ 822.. as of 2:30pm

No advertising so I figured it was all right to state this...I believe it will go off the charts the day of the draft

 

[MastersofCombat]

Math systems are only as good as the underlying assumptions. I was impressed with some of the things the WIN system does in adjusting for the level of opposition.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/2008-Win-Scores-NBA-Draft-Preview-2932/

IMHO Ranking Thompson at #11 based on stats is crazy considering he played for Rider. Likewise, George Hill at #19 played for the Indiana University Purdue University Initute (IUPUI), and Reggie Williams #26) is from Virginia Military Institute (all offense and no defense team) are open to question. Thompason is generally viewed as bubble guy and the others are mid second rounds on most mocks.

Rush is rumored to be a lottery pick (the Cavs want to trade up), yet he's ranked #33 and is ranked below Shan Foster at #29 who may not get drafted. (Shan is one dimensional shooter who has not made an impact at either Portland or the Combine).

If I was working on a project like this, I'd want to know why there are so many unintuitive results. Either the model is wrong or it is picking up stuff not being recognized by anyone else (if so, why aren't they?) I work as a financial analyst, so I've had a lot of experience with dealing with models that produce "odd" results. I don't just reject the results, but I know I've got to give an indepth explantion of every oddity.

ooh well looks like someone believes in it.. Jason Thompson wasnt invited to the green room but he will be playing for Sacremento this season as a first round pick #12 overall