Rookie watch

[Errntknght]

Actually I'm just following the first 30 draft picks, of whom 25 have played so far.

The leaders in minutes played (through the games of 11/25) are: Carter-Williams 399; Oladipo 358; Olynyk 315; McLemore 284; Cody Zeller 275; Caldwell-Pope 267; Steven Adams 227. The average minutes for all 25 is 154 - compared to 244 minutes for all 416 players that have played so far.

Among the rookies that have played 100+ minutes the leading FG% are: Mason Plumlee .636; Gobert .458; Antetokoumnpo .457; Adams .455; Hardaway .414; C-W .400; Olynyk .389; Oladipo .386; Goodwin .379. The average for all is .380 - league average is .448.
Leading rebounders (100+ mins) Gobert 16,2/40; Adams 10.6/40; Olynyk and Anthony Bennett 9.6/40; Zeller 9.0/40;
Leading assists: C-W 8.1/40; Schroder 7.2/40; Oladipo 4.9/40
Leading shot blockers: Gorgui Dieng 8.1/40 (Dieng only played 54 minutes but spreading his blocks over 100 minutes he'd still lead.) Gobert 2.8/40; Adams 2.6/40.

The average offensive efficiency rating for the rookies is 75 compared to the league wide 96. Last year the league wide average was 100. The rookies rating has bounced around 75 with no direction. The league wide average started at 93 and has climbed steadily to 96.

 

[Errntknght]

Its interesting the way this draft is shaping up... it may well turn out to be a very good draft for centers and power forwards. Noel we haven't seen yet but he figures to be among the best of them. If Len's ankle problems don't plague him - and they've been reasonably okay - he should live up to my prediction of being the best center the Suns have ever had, at least. Steven Adams has had a productive year with OKC and Mason Plumlee has been a revelation of late. (I wonder if the fact that his brother Miles did zip for Indiana, hurt his stock.) Kelly Olynyk has surpassed expectations - well, except for the guy that predicted he'd be rookie of the year. Cody Zeller has gotten the most minutes of any of them and has pretty good production. Dieng has been wasting away on the bench for Minny but they were forced to start him the last two games and he's gotten double doubles in both and blocked six shots - both were close games and they won them both, so if nothing else he's a good luck charm. Rudy Gobert isn't getting much burn with Utah but he has blocked shots like he was supposed to (3.3/36). Bennett is the closest thing to a flop but he's struggling his way out of the muck as we speak.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'm thinking this past draft was not a good draft for immediate impact players but strong on development players which may turn out to be just as good long term. I don't think Ben McLemore has been that sure thing as many envisioned but there is time for these young players to get better.

 

[elindholm]

I don't think Ben McLemore has been that sure thing as many envisioned

No, he hasn't even been close.

Len is most likely a bust, but it doesn't look as though the Suns made a major error by taking him, since the obvious options, Noel and McLemore, are a long way from being success stories themselves. Of course you can look at the small handful of players taken afterward who are actually contributing and say that the Suns missed on them, but that's not really fair -- no team always finds the best player on the board. I'm certainly no more optimistic about the Len pick now than I was when the Suns made it, but it doesn't look like quite the blunder it used to. The whole draft class pretty much sucks -- I'd say Oladipo, Carter-Williams, and maybe Hardaway are the only ones who look likely to have any sort of career.

 

[Catlover]

No, he hasn't even been close.

Len is most likely a bust, but it doesn't look as though the Suns made a major error by taking him, since the obvious options, Noel and McLemore, are a long way from being success stories themselves. Of course you can look at the small handful of players taken afterward who are actually contributing and say that the Suns missed on them, but that's not really fair -- no team always finds the best player on the board. I'm certainly no more optimistic about the Len pick now than I was when the Suns made it, but it doesn't look like quite the blunder it used to. The whole draft class pretty much sucks -- I'd say Oladipo, Carter-Williams, and maybe Hardaway are the only ones who look likely to have any sort of career.

Eye of the beholder I guess. Len has looked pretty good at moments. Who knows if he'll be able to string those moments together regularly but I've seen nothing from him that suggests he'll be a bust that wasn't in evidence pre-draft. Quite the opposite actually. He is agile and has excellent control over his body for a man his size. He runs the court fairly well and he handles contact very well. He has the frame to add some muscle and has shown a nice touch around the hoop. If I had no concerns over his injury and if I were reseeding this class, he'd go number one AFAIC. That is in part a statement on the mediocrity of last year's draft but not entirely. Others have outplayed him but I don't see anyone from that group that has more potential.

 

[slinslin]

Steven Adams is raw as sushi.

The draft class was overall weak, Archie Goodwin can still be the best player from this draft.

 

[Errntknght]

I know for unbridled pessimism one need look no further than Eric, but only three guys!

At any time there are about 450 players in the league; 150 of them are starters and another 150 are second on the depth charts. For the purposes of this I'm going to say that those 300 have some sort of a career in the NBA and the other 150 don't. Assuming an average tenure in the league of 10 years for players having some sort a career, so an average of 30 players per year make it to that level.

Another way to look at it: 30 players per year making means 1 per team per year. With an average tenure of 10 years and average roster of 15 people that means that on a typical team 10 guys will have some sort of a career and 5 won't. That doesn't seem out of line with my experience.

The league drafts 60 players a year and every year there are undrafted guys that get a shot as well. Lets say 70 per year get some sort of a trial. If 30 have some sort of a career thats a success rate of 43%... so 30 per year seems to be about in line with that measure.

A year in which only 3 new players reach that level is extremely, extremely unlikely. I would bet that at least 15 make it. I'd bet that all the bigs I mentioned except Gobert make it if they don't suffer a debilitating injury.

 

[elindholm]

I've seen nothing from him that suggests he'll be a bust that wasn't in evidence pre-draft.

I'd go along with that.

 

[Superbone]

Len is most likely a bust...

It doesn't make me vomit but it does makes me laugh. Way too early to make a statement like that. BTW, what's your definition of a bust? Also, would I be safe in making the assumption that you didn't watch the last game or very many games at all this year for that matter?

 

[Mainstreet]

No, he hasn't even been close.

Len is most likely a bust, but it doesn't look as though the Suns made a major error by taking him, since the obvious options, Noel and McLemore, are a long way from being success stories themselves. Of course you can look at the small handful of players taken afterward who are actually contributing and say that the Suns missed on them, but that's not really fair -- no team always finds the best player on the board. I'm certainly no more optimistic about the Len pick now than I was when the Suns made it, but it doesn't look like quite the blunder it used to. The whole draft class pretty much sucks -- I'd say Oladipo, Carter-Williams, and maybe Hardaway are the only ones who look likely to have any sort of career.

If Len can stay healthy, I think he will improve each season. I am happy with the potential he has shown already considering he is underweight and not developed. It's clear he has not grasped the intricacies of the NBA. He has a chance to be a complete center who can rebound, score inside, block/alter shots and hit the mid-range shot. Also he seems to have a bit of a temper. I didn't expect much from him this season coming off injury. IMO, his game has the potential resemble Jonas Valanciunas but only time will tell. Again, he needs to stay healthy.

 

[SirStefan32]

I think it's about 2-3 years too early to declare Len a bust. We all knew he was a long-term project. Health is the biggest concern, but even if he stays healthy, I don't think he'll be a regular contributor for another 3 years.

 

[elindholm]

Len has looked pretty good at moments.

But that's not the issue. The issue is whether he can be better than a typical guy trying to make an NBA rotation as a center. Take any backup or deep-bench center in the league, they all have skills, and they all can look "pretty good at moments." That isn't the standard. To make it, he'll have to look better than "pretty good," and a lot more frequently than "at moments." I haven't seen every minute of him this season, nor did I see the (relative) highlight reel that he apparently put together in garbage time against the Magic. But from what I've seen, his instincts are so poor that the odds against him becoming a bona fide NBA player -- keeping in mind the level of competition -- are very long.

Keep in mind, I was one of the few on this board who thought the Suns quit too soon on Robin Lopez, so I'm not prone to impatience. I thought Lopez as a rookie showed a lot more than Len has shown so far.

 

[Phrazbit]

So far the draft class as a whole is what it was billed to be; one of the worst in recent memory. Carter-Williams looks good but not great, and really only because of his stat stuffing, his shooting and defense are both pretty bad. I liked and still like Oladipo but IMO he is a complimentary piece, not something to build around. After those two the pickings get pretty slim.

Not sure how you can come away thinking it looks like a good draft for bigs, I think measured against what we have seen from bigs in other draft this year's crop is behind the curve. We have a variety of guys who look like they will have careers as reserves but so far its hard to peg any of them as looking like a potential starter on a decent team.

Hope I am wrong on Len but he has spent 95% of his time on the court looking awful, a few put back dunks in garbage time against a tanking team is not enough to convince me he is a decent player. And as Eric said, Lopez looked MUCH better at the same stage of his career. I have not seen much to drive off what I said about Len before the year, he reminds me of Timofey Mozgov. Which isnt to say he is awful, Mozgov is a decent reserve, but I've yet to see anything from Len to make me think he is beyond that.

As for the class as a whole, I know rookies typically shoot below the league average but this class seems especially awful at putting the ball in the basket. The guards who have seen the court are almost all shooting under 40%, the only big who has been serviceable on offense is Mason Plumlee.

So, I cant rip McDonough for the Len pick, because IMO it was a poor player in a see of lousy players. Its true what others are saying, it is too soon to write the obituary on the 2013 draft class, but so far its shaping out to be a very short reading.

 

[Gaddabout]

Len kind of reminds me of Nick Vanos, and Vanos didn't come on until the final 28 games of the season when he got playing time.

 

[Catlover]

So far the draft class as a whole is what it was billed to be; one of the worst in recent memory. Carter-Williams looks good but not great, and really only because of his stat stuffing, his shooting and defense are both pretty bad. I liked and still like Oladipo but IMO he is a complimentary piece, not something to build around. After those two the pickings get pretty slim.

Not sure how you can come away thinking it looks like a good draft for bigs, I think measured against what we have seen from bigs in other draft this year's crop is behind the curve. We have a variety of guys who look like they will have careers as reserves but so far its hard to peg any of them as looking like a potential starter on a decent team.

Hope I am wrong on Len but he has spent 95% of his time on the court looking awful, a few put back dunks in garbage time against a tanking team is not enough to convince me he is a decent player. And as Eric said, Lopez looked MUCH better at the same stage of his career. I have not seen much to drive off what I said about Len before the year, he reminds me of Timofey Mozgov. Which isnt to say he is awful, Mozgov is a decent reserve, but I've yet to see anything from Len to make me think he is beyond that.

As for the class as a whole, I know rookies typically shoot below the league average but this class seems especially awful at putting the ball in the basket. The guards who have seen the court are almost all shooting under 40%, the only big who has been serviceable on offense is Mason Plumlee.

So, I cant rip McDonough for the Len pick, because IMO it was a poor player in a see of lousy players. Its true what others are saying, it is too soon to write the obituary on the 2013 draft class, but so far its shaping out to be a very short reading.

I think time has shaded your memory a bit. Unless you're just strictly looking at a calendar and ignoring playing time, they both looked like long term projects to me at similar points in their NBA career. Robin was horrible until they moved him into the starting lineup, prior to that he was comedy fodder for this and every other message board. He looked a little more ready for prime time than Len did but he wasn't rehabbing from ankle surgery either. And IMO Len's quality moments, few as they are, have been far more impressive to me than anything I saw from Robin his first season. They didn't all come against scrubs either.

 

[PhxGametime]

I wanted the Suns to Draft either Lopez brother, until a day before Draft day and choose Mario Chalmers for backup role to Nash. However I wasn't as impressed with Robin his first year, at all and from memory this messageboard wasn't excited about him. Too slow to rebound/react, no shot, hunched over in defensive stance, etc. is what I remember most on here...

He improved after Rookie year but never seemed to get respect from fans and I would've kept Marcin Gortat over Lopez too, as Suns eventually did. Thought he was solid though. Gortat after second year took a lot of heat, as Plumlee/Len may sometime soon face but hopefully the Suns don't give up on either too early.

Really started to like Andrew Lang's game (though solid Trade) but also Big Jake, Robin, Gortat, etc. weren't ever as bad as the criticism they received and were all Traded at peak of their game.

I like to armchair GM as much as anybody on here but I try to make criticism of players/Prospects before they become Phoenix Sun; and take all frustration yelling at refs during/after game lol. After constantly making fun of Rex Chapman's lack of defense to anybody that listened; I ended up seeing him at grocery store heh. Referees however I feel much better about myself unleashing fury!

 

[Superbone]

Len kind of reminds me of Nick Vanos, and Vanos didn't come on until the final 28 games of the season when he got playing time.

That's an interesting comparison. I would have loved to see how Vanos would have progressed from there. RIP.

 

[Neo]

If you go by Win Shares then the rookies with the most impact this season are Mason Plumlee (3.1), Tim Hardaway (2.5), Steven Adams (2.2), Kelly Olynyk (2.1), and Ryan Kelly (1.8).

Len is 16th with a 0.4 Win Share and Goodwin is -0.1, but that does not worry me since we all knew that they were both pretty raw. I think that Eric's prediction that Oladipo, Carter-Williams, and maybe Hardaway are the only ones who look likely to have any sort of career is overly pessimistic unless the definition of "any sort of career" means being a borderline all-star or better at some point in their career. I think that I am having a pretty good career, even though I know that I'll never be in the top of my organization.

Interestingly the #1 pick, Bennett, and Schroeder, who I seem to recall someone saying could be better than Dragic, are tied for last in Win Share at -0.4

 

[FutureSuperstar]

I think some of you guys are being way too harsh just in evaluating Len's play this year. He has not looked awful 95% of the time ...

I'll just go over his last 9 games here:

Vs. ORL: 11m - Looked good, minimal mistakes
vs. Nets: 8m - Made 2-3 "rookie mistakes" (dropping rebound, faked out by Blatche, TO) ... But was a +3 in his time, and stopped Blatche 2/3 times he posted up, so I don't agree he was "awful"
vs. TOR: 8m ... Didn't do much ,but was +8 and had a presence defensively
vs. BOS: We all know he played well ...
vs. LAC: 3 m ... Had a dunk, not enough PT to evaluate
vs. GSW: 15m - 3/3/1 block , -3 +/- ... Alright showing - Provided good rim protection to start game against Bogut
vs. OKC: 11m - 6/3/5 fouls ... Had moments, but looked inexperienced - Wouldn't say it was "awful" though
vs. LAC: 19m - 6/6 , 3-8 FG ... Not good w/ his low %, dropped a few passes, but at least he got open around the basket ... Probably his worst game out of the bunch, but it was his 1st career start

So, I don't agree with the assessment that he's looked awful 95% of the time this season ... It seems some of you think if Len doesn't fill the stat sheet in (only) 7 minutes, then he didn't play well. I just don't think he's gotten enough minutes, so it's hard to remember his "good moments"

 

[JCSunsfan]

Lopez also regressed. Lopez got twice the minutes in his rookie year, that Len has gotten this year. Its just apples and oranges.

Len is hardly at any "stage." He had no summer league, no training camp, no early season, and virtually no playing time . It would be wise to treat this season as an injury loss and look at him as a rookie next year.

I am sure there were alot of people in Indy calling Plumlee a bust last year. Good grief, just a little patience. Remember, big men just take time. It has always been that way.

 

[BC867]

Really started to like Andrew Lang's game (though solid Trade)

I liked what Andrew brought to the Center position . . . except for one thing.

Whenever he snagged a rebound, he crouched and brought the ball down to his knees, where every opponent on the court could snatch it away from him.

The thing that was frustrating was that he never adjusted.

 

[FutureSuperstar]

Lopez also regressed. Lopez got twice the minutes in his rookie year, that Len has gotten this year. Its just apples and oranges.

Len is hardly at any "stage." He had no summer league, no training camp, no early season, and virtually no playing time . It would be wise to treat this season as an injury loss and look at him as a rookie next year.

I am sure there were alot of people in Indy calling Plumlee a bust last year. Good grief, just a little patience. Remember, big men just take time. It has always been that way.

To add to this, I don't think a lot of you guys know - But Len missed the summer before his Freshman year of College too

Len was a late signing by Maryland, did NOT practice with the team at all during the summer, and was suspended for the 1st 10 games of his freshman year (NCAA violation, so not an injury) - I don't even think he practiced with the team during that time, then he got thrown into the fire during ACC play ... His "freshman year" was Turgeon's 1st year at Maryland too - That was really the definition of a "lost season" or "1/2 season" for him (Much like this year for him actually)

So literally the only time he's been with a team for an offseason and/or healthy enough to work out was in between his 1st and 2nd year at Maryland ... And that offseason he put on 30+ pounds and was a completely different player in his 2nd year

So not only is Len only 20, but he's a young 20 - Started playing basketball late in his life and basically only 1.5 seasons of college basketball (w/ only 1 summer) ...

I am very confident based off how much he improved his summer at Maryland, that Len will improve a ton this summer in the weight room and moves on the court

 

[Superbone]

Len is hardly at any "stage." He had no summer league, no training camp, no early season, and virtually no playing time . It would be wise to treat this season as an injury loss and look at him as a rookie next year.

I am sure there were alot of people in Indy calling Plumlee a bust last year. Good grief, just a little patience. Remember, big men just take time. It has always been that way.

This exactly. It was very silly for Eric to make that proclamation. He was going for shock value I guess. I'd be surprised if he's even watched a minute of his play this season.

 

[Mainstreet]

That's an interesting comparison. I would have loved to see how Vanos would have progressed from there. RIP.

I liked Nick Vanos but I don't think he had as much upside as Len. IMO, the only question about Len is whether he can stay healthy. If you or anyone else wants to do the thread tonight, please feel free to do so. I do it because I like to talk about the game when it starts. The more that get involved the better.

 

[Superbone]

I liked Nick Vanos but I don't think he had as much upside as Len. IMO, the only question about Len is whether he can stay healthy. If you or anyone else wants to do the thread tonight, please feel free to do so. I do it because I like to talk about the game when it starts. The more that get involved the better.

You've got to do it, Main. You've got a streak going. I rarely am able to watch a game live. I won't be able to watch until later tonight after I get off work.