- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 467,027
- Reaction score
- 44
TAMPA — A humble suggestion for your Rays viewing pleasure:
Stop obsessing over the scoreboard. While you’re at it, ignore the standings, too.
It’s been more than six weeks since the Rays were last above .500. It’s been almost two years since they had a winning streak longer than five games. Numbers like that can make a soul loony, if you choose to live and die with every pitch.
I’m not suggesting that winning doesn’t matter, but we’re still two months away from the All-Star break, which means the story of this season is far from completion. And while early returns have not generated much enthusiasm, there are hints of better days ahead.
The lineup is diverse. The pitching staff has underperformed. The American League East is not looking very beast-like. There is a path to the postseason that cuts through Steinbrenner Field but, like anything associated with Dale Mabry Highway, it may take some time to generate speed.
Here, then, are five possibilities of a playoff team hiding inside of Tampa Bay’s mediocre record.
Since beginning the season with a hideous-looking 6.88 ERA, Littell has been Tampa Bay’s most consistent pitcher.
He’s got a 3.13 ERA in his last six starts, and the Rays have won four of those games. Littell is looking more and more like the control-artist who quietly posted some of the better numbers in baseball since converting to a starter’s role in 2023. Need proof? Tyler Glasnow made 43 starts in 2023-24 and had a 3.51 ERA. Littell also made 43 starts and had a 3.56 ERA in that role.
So, it’s undoubtedly good news that Littell has rediscovered his mojo.
Because he might be Tampa Bay’s best trade chip in July.
Why would the Rays trade someone who has been so consistent? Several reasons. No. 1, Littell is one of the older (29) and more highly paid ($5.7 million) members of the rotation. And, it’s probably fair to say, his ceiling is not as high as Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz or Drew Rasmussen. Also, the Rays still have Shane McClanahan working his way back from a nerve issue and Joe Boyle smoking hitters at Triple-A Durham.
They say you can never have too much starting pitching, but it could be a luxury on a team that could use more offensive punch.
By now, most fans are aware of the discrepancy between Tampa Bay’s home/road records.
But are we focusing too much on the wrong end of the equation?
The Rays are 11-17 (.393) at Steinbrenner. No getting around it, that’s a horrible record. But the Rays went into Friday night’s game with a 9-6 record away from home, which was the second-best winning percentage (.600) on the road in Major League Baseball. And that included a six-game West Coast trip and three games at Yankee Stadium.
That suggests the Rays are a better team than their overall record would indicate. Now, is it possible I’m viewing this backward? Maybe the road record is the fluke, and Tampa Bay’s performance at Steinbrenner is more indicative of the team’s strength.
It’s possible, but I doubt it.
The Rays made one of their largest free-agent investments in franchise history by signing Ha-Seong Kim to a two-year, $29 million deal in January.
It obviously wasn’t a long-term commitment — Kim can even opt out after this season — but the front office deemed it a unique opportunity. It was a chance to get a valuable commodity at a lower price because Kim was still rehabbing after shoulder surgery, and the Rays had a hole at shortstop.
All of that remains true, but if anything Kim’s potential impact looms even larger.
After finishing near the bottom of the league in OPS in 2024 at .604, Rays shortstops are providing even less offense in ’25. Taylor Walls and Jose Caballero have combined for a .538 OPS. Walls remains an elite defender, but the current lineup cannot afford to devote too many plate appearances to such a weak bat.
Kim potentially could return from the injured list in the next 3-4 weeks.
A little earlier, I mentioned the pitching staff has underperformed.
Here’s why:
The Rays are giving up a ton of home runs.
They are currently on pace to give up 234 homers, which would be 19 more than they allowed in 2002 when they lost a franchise-worst 106 games. Going into the weekend, nearly 52% of every run Tampa Bay allowed crossed the plate due to a home run.
Some of that is entirely logical. Littell, for instance, is always in the strike zone and doesn’t have a ton of velocity. If he misses his spot, there’s a decent chance it will leave the park. And Steinbrenner Field plays very short in rightfield (even though the Rays have given up a higher rate of homers on the road), which could become even more troublesome as the weather turns hotter.
But even with those caveats, the number of home runs are still out of whack.
And this staff would seem to be too talented to continue on that pace, although Bradley makes you wonder.
Before going too far, I’ll acknowledge this is the hardest case to justify.
The Rays had a poor offense last season (3.73 runs per game), and they have been only marginally better this season (3.95) through 44 games. But there are significant differences.
By replacing Jose Siri and Randy Arozarena among others, the Rays have reduced their strikeout rate to near league average. By replacing Harold Ramirez, Amed Rosario and others, they’ve increased their walk rate. This is a team that puts the ball in play with greater frequency and, thus far, a higher exit velocity.
It’s not a great offense by any means, but it can score in different ways. They have speed, they have a modest amount of power, and with Jonathan Aranda, Chandler Simpson and Jake Mangum getting more at-bats, they can put more pressure on defenses by moving the ball around. Theoretically, that should cut down on extended slumps, although the first seven weeks of the season have challenged that notion.
So, is all of this enough? Can a team that has been below .500 for the better part of a year and a half turn itself into a legitimate contender?
Stay tuned. And try not to obsess.
• • •
Sign up for our Sports Today newsletter to get daily updates on the Bucs, Rays, Lightning and college football across Florida.
Every weekday, tune into our Sports Day Tampa Bay podcast to hear reporter Rick Stroud break down the biggest stories in Tampa Bay sports.
Never miss out on the latest with your favorite Tampa Bay sports teams. Follow our coverage on X and Facebook.
Continue reading...
Stop obsessing over the scoreboard. While you’re at it, ignore the standings, too.
It’s been more than six weeks since the Rays were last above .500. It’s been almost two years since they had a winning streak longer than five games. Numbers like that can make a soul loony, if you choose to live and die with every pitch.
I’m not suggesting that winning doesn’t matter, but we’re still two months away from the All-Star break, which means the story of this season is far from completion. And while early returns have not generated much enthusiasm, there are hints of better days ahead.
The lineup is diverse. The pitching staff has underperformed. The American League East is not looking very beast-like. There is a path to the postseason that cuts through Steinbrenner Field but, like anything associated with Dale Mabry Highway, it may take some time to generate speed.
Here, then, are five possibilities of a playoff team hiding inside of Tampa Bay’s mediocre record.
The Littell factor
Since beginning the season with a hideous-looking 6.88 ERA, Littell has been Tampa Bay’s most consistent pitcher.
He’s got a 3.13 ERA in his last six starts, and the Rays have won four of those games. Littell is looking more and more like the control-artist who quietly posted some of the better numbers in baseball since converting to a starter’s role in 2023. Need proof? Tyler Glasnow made 43 starts in 2023-24 and had a 3.51 ERA. Littell also made 43 starts and had a 3.56 ERA in that role.
So, it’s undoubtedly good news that Littell has rediscovered his mojo.
Because he might be Tampa Bay’s best trade chip in July.
Why would the Rays trade someone who has been so consistent? Several reasons. No. 1, Littell is one of the older (29) and more highly paid ($5.7 million) members of the rotation. And, it’s probably fair to say, his ceiling is not as high as Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz or Drew Rasmussen. Also, the Rays still have Shane McClanahan working his way back from a nerve issue and Joe Boyle smoking hitters at Triple-A Durham.
They say you can never have too much starting pitching, but it could be a luxury on a team that could use more offensive punch.
The Steinbrenner factor
By now, most fans are aware of the discrepancy between Tampa Bay’s home/road records.
But are we focusing too much on the wrong end of the equation?
The Rays are 11-17 (.393) at Steinbrenner. No getting around it, that’s a horrible record. But the Rays went into Friday night’s game with a 9-6 record away from home, which was the second-best winning percentage (.600) on the road in Major League Baseball. And that included a six-game West Coast trip and three games at Yankee Stadium.
That suggests the Rays are a better team than their overall record would indicate. Now, is it possible I’m viewing this backward? Maybe the road record is the fluke, and Tampa Bay’s performance at Steinbrenner is more indicative of the team’s strength.
It’s possible, but I doubt it.
The Kim factor
The Rays made one of their largest free-agent investments in franchise history by signing Ha-Seong Kim to a two-year, $29 million deal in January.
It obviously wasn’t a long-term commitment — Kim can even opt out after this season — but the front office deemed it a unique opportunity. It was a chance to get a valuable commodity at a lower price because Kim was still rehabbing after shoulder surgery, and the Rays had a hole at shortstop.
All of that remains true, but if anything Kim’s potential impact looms even larger.
After finishing near the bottom of the league in OPS in 2024 at .604, Rays shortstops are providing even less offense in ’25. Taylor Walls and Jose Caballero have combined for a .538 OPS. Walls remains an elite defender, but the current lineup cannot afford to devote too many plate appearances to such a weak bat.
Kim potentially could return from the injured list in the next 3-4 weeks.
The home run factor
A little earlier, I mentioned the pitching staff has underperformed.
Here’s why:
The Rays are giving up a ton of home runs.
They are currently on pace to give up 234 homers, which would be 19 more than they allowed in 2002 when they lost a franchise-worst 106 games. Going into the weekend, nearly 52% of every run Tampa Bay allowed crossed the plate due to a home run.
Some of that is entirely logical. Littell, for instance, is always in the strike zone and doesn’t have a ton of velocity. If he misses his spot, there’s a decent chance it will leave the park. And Steinbrenner Field plays very short in rightfield (even though the Rays have given up a higher rate of homers on the road), which could become even more troublesome as the weather turns hotter.
But even with those caveats, the number of home runs are still out of whack.
And this staff would seem to be too talented to continue on that pace, although Bradley makes you wonder.
The lineup factor
Before going too far, I’ll acknowledge this is the hardest case to justify.
The Rays had a poor offense last season (3.73 runs per game), and they have been only marginally better this season (3.95) through 44 games. But there are significant differences.
By replacing Jose Siri and Randy Arozarena among others, the Rays have reduced their strikeout rate to near league average. By replacing Harold Ramirez, Amed Rosario and others, they’ve increased their walk rate. This is a team that puts the ball in play with greater frequency and, thus far, a higher exit velocity.
It’s not a great offense by any means, but it can score in different ways. They have speed, they have a modest amount of power, and with Jonathan Aranda, Chandler Simpson and Jake Mangum getting more at-bats, they can put more pressure on defenses by moving the ball around. Theoretically, that should cut down on extended slumps, although the first seven weeks of the season have challenged that notion.
So, is all of this enough? Can a team that has been below .500 for the better part of a year and a half turn itself into a legitimate contender?
Stay tuned. And try not to obsess.
• • •
Sign up for our Sports Today newsletter to get daily updates on the Bucs, Rays, Lightning and college football across Florida.
Every weekday, tune into our Sports Day Tampa Bay podcast to hear reporter Rick Stroud break down the biggest stories in Tampa Bay sports.
Never miss out on the latest with your favorite Tampa Bay sports teams. Follow our coverage on X and Facebook.
Continue reading...
