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The Red Sox' nine-game winning streak to close out the first half suddenly makes the second half of the 2026 season much more interesting.
Boston opens the second half with a doubleheader against the Rays on Friday. The Sox are just a half game behind the Mariners and Twins for the third and final AL Wild Card spot.
That’s a remarkable turnaround considering they were 6 ½ games behind with six teams ahead of them for the final spot on July 2.
Boston has a 39.8% probability of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. It had just a 13.4% playoff probability on July 2.
Below are the top 10 storylines (and one extra) heading into the second half.
1. Boston faces a gauntlet to begin the second half
The Red Sox’ first 10 games of the second half — all at home against AL East teams — could determine whether they are buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.
They will host the first-place Rays for four games this weekend starting today. The Orioles and Blue Jays each visit Fenway Park for three games next week.
- BETTING: Red Sox -1.5 run line is listed at +176 on FanDuel for Friday night’s game versus Tampa Bay, the second game of the doubleheader. Our complete FanDuel Sportsbook review provides a helpful guide on how to use their platform. Also, make sure to check out our MLB betting guide if you’re interested in learning more about how to bet on baseball.
This will be an incredibly challenging stretch for Boston, which is 10-17 against AL East foes, including 2-10 against the Rays and Blue Jays.
The Sox are also just 17-27 at Fenway Park. So they will need to do two things they haven’t done this year — play well within the division and play well at home.
2. Craig Breslow’s job security
Questions about chief baseball officer Craig Breslow’s job security have eased with Boston sweeping three straight road series to finish the first half.
But that talk could always pick up again if the Red Sox play poorly coming out of the break.
This 10-game stretch not only could determine whether Boston buys or sells at the trade deadline but it also could determine whether Breslow keeps his job.
What could put Breslow’s job in jeopardy? That will be a debated topic as the second half develops.
Does he need to make the playoffs? If the Red Sox play well but miss the playoffs by one or two games, could that still cost Breslow his job?
Could he keep his job even if the Red Sox finish 10 games out?
3. Can the Red Sox starting rotation match what it did in the first half?
The Red Sox ranked eighth in the major leagues in starter ERA (3.85) during the first half. But Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early and Jake Bennett — Boston’s main five starters during the team’s strong run to close out the first half — combined for a 3.00 ERA (410 ⅓ innings, 137 earned runs) in 74 starts.
Can the Red Sox starting rotation match what it did in the first half? How long Suarez and Early remain on the injured list could answer that question.
4. How long will Suarez and Early be out — and who steps up?
Suarez, an All-Star, landed on the injured list last Thursday with a left groin strain.
Early was placed on the injured list July 1 due to posterior elbow inflammation/irritation.
The Red Sox are hopeful both IL stints will be brief. Early’s imaging and second opinion showed no structural damage to his elbow.
In the meantime, Patrick Sandoval and Brayan Bello should receive an opportunity. Sandoval will start Saturday against the Rays.
The Sox have not yet announced their Game 2 starter for Friday. It is possible they use Bello in a bulk role following an opener.
Bello pitched well piggybacking Tolle on Sunday, allowing one run and striking out five in 4 ⅓ innings against the Mets after being recalled from Triple-A Worcester before the game.
The Red Sox wanted Bello to get back to using his changeup more frequently when they demoted him to Worcester. He used it 29% of the time against the Mets, an increase from 18% this season. He threw it 19 times, generating four swings and misses. It was tied for his most used pitch along with his sinker and sweeper.
5. Will Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony contribute?
Ace Garrett Crochet and left fielder Roman Anthony are “making progress every day, just the slow and steady variety,” according to a team source.
Crochet hasn’t pitched since April 25. He’s on the 60-day injured list with left shoulder inflammation. He hasn’t resumed his throwing program since being shut down in mid-June due to a low grade left lat strain.
Anthony is on the 60-day with torn ligament near the base of his right ring finger. The Red Sox recently sent him to heal at the JetBlue Park complex in Fort Myers. He still hasn’t resumed his hitting progression since feeling discomfort swinging off a tee in late May.
He was sent to Florida because of a “crowded clubhouse due to the other injured players.”
6. Can the Red Sox offense be better?
The Red Sox ranked 23rd in the majors in OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage) with a .701 mark during the first half. They have been much better in July, posting a .757 OPS while going 9-1.
The Sox will need to hit much better at Fenway Park where they are batting just .238 with a .308 on-base percentage, .372 slugging percentage and .680 OPS.
Boston’s 34 home runs at Fenway Park are the fewest by any team at home this season.
7. Play better at Fenway Park
Since the start of the 2019 season, the Red Sox are just five games over .500 (283-278) at Fenway Park.
During that stretch, Boston has had a home winning record in only three years (2021, 2024 and 2025). In two of those three seasons (2021 and 2025), the Sox made the playoffs.
It’s pretty simple: They need to play well at Fenway Park during the second half to make the playoffs.
In addition to being 17-27 at Fenway, the Sox have a negative-24 run differential at home. Conversely, they are 29-21 with a positive-51 run differential on the road.
8. Do the Red Sox go all-in at the trade deadline (either way)?
The Red Sox needed to add a starting pitcher at the 2025 trade deadline. Acquiring Dustin May was a last-minute fallback option after failing to acquire Joe Ryan or another top of the rotation starter. May ended up posting a 5.40 ERA in six outings (five starts).
Boston didn’t go all-in and it came back to bite them in the AL Wild Card series when it lacked the starting pitching to match up with the Yankees.
If the Red Sox are buyers, they need to go all in and trade for a legitimate right-handed slugger, not another Danny Jansen like they did before the 2024 deadline.
They also need to go all in if they sell.
If they sell, they shouldn’t go half-in like they did in 2022 when they traded Christian Vázquez but kept J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi and Xander Bogaerts, who were all on expiring contracts.
Willson Contreras said he won’t waive his no-trade clause. But the Red Sox should deal Sonny Gray if he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause and trade Aroldis Chapman.
9. Devers returns
It should be interesting to see the reaction Rafael Devers receives from fans when he returns to Fenway Park on Aug. 21 for the first time since Boston traded him last June 15.
Fans weren’t pleased when Devers immediately began working out at first base for the Giants after he refused to do it for Boston following Triston Casas’ season-ending surgery to repair a patellar tendon.
The Red Sox did a poor job communicating with Devers. But he didn’t help the situation at all. He chose to stay mad at the Red Sox instead of doing what was best for the team after a teammate’s season-ending injury.
10. What to do with Story and Mayer
The Red Sox are 13-2 since Marcelo Mayer went on the 10-day injured list with a bone stress reaction to the left ulna.
Might the Red Sox option Mayer to Worcester if he is activated from the IL in the heat of a Wild Card race? Mayer is batting .223 with a .278 on-base percentage, .346 slugging percentage and .625 OPS in 114 major league games. He’s slugging just .312 with a .594 OPS and -0.1 fWAR in 70 games this year.
Trevor Story also is working his way back from hernia surgery but how much does he deserve to play when he returns? He has the worst fWAR (-0.5) among Red Sox players.
Bonus: Can Ceddanne Rafaela keep it up in the second half?
Ceddanne Rafaela made the AL All-Star team with an impressive first half. He batted .281 with a .328 on-base percentage, .433 slugging percentage, .761 OPS, eight home runs, 26 doubles and three triples in 90 games. He posted the second-highest fWAR (2.9) among Red Sox players behind only Suarez (3.0).
That said, he has not been a good second-half hitter during his career. He has a career .617 OPS in the second half compared to a .747 OPS in the first half.
More Red Sox coverage
- Red Sox roster: Lefty reliever appointed Boston’s 27th man for doubleheader
- Red Sox’ 2027 schedule includes familiar Opening Day location, four trips out west
- Red Sox owner John Henry reveals why he doesn’t talk to reporters
- Aroldis Chapman ‘turned the page’ on wanting apology from Yankees
- Fenway Insider Live: Chris Cotillo on Red Sox’ trade deadline plans, Jarren Duran and more
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