Rebuilding - Why should the Suns do it?

[slinslin]

Prelude:

Boston - Paul Pierce , Al Jefferson/Ryan Gomes(Kevin Garnett), Jeff Green (Ray Allen), Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins
Portland - Brandon Roy, Lamarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, Sergio Rodriguez, Jerryd Bayless, Martell Webster
New Orleans - Chris Paul, David West
Orlando - Dwight Howard , Jameer Nelson, Courtney Lee
San Antonio Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker

What do these teams have in common? Everyone built their team through multiple draftpicks making a big impact.

You could also include Cleveland, LA Lakers, Miami who just needed one great pick to build very good teams.
To a lesser extent Atlanta with Smith, Horford, Williams, Houston(Ming,Brooks,Landry,Scola) and Dallas (Dirk, Howard, Harris(Kidd), Barea).

A hybrid like Utah with Deron Williams, Corey Brewer, Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap and some expensive FA like Boozer and Okur.

The only exception really is Detroit with just Prince and the other parts were acquired through good trades or FA signings.

So why should the Suns rebuild this offseason?

1. A mediocre year is a lost year. It's bad for the fans and it is bad for the team to suffer through. A mediocre year means that it will take at least a year longer to get back to a very good level.

2. If they decide not to rebuild this year, they will automatically lose all of the expiring contracts (Shaq,Nash,Amare) which are valueable pieces this year.
If they keep the team together it probably means that they are looking to retool through free agency in 2010 with or without Amare.
But recent history shows that building a team through free agency rarely works. Great players almost never change teams through free agency, Shaq was the only exception over the last 20 years and MAYBE Nash if you want to insist on it (though he was never being looked at as a great player at that time at least).
Also this would prevent us from ever being truly bad so we would never get a high draft pick.

3. No matter what we do, we can't turn it around and expect to be a very good team next season unless we win the lottery and other miracles happen. We could probably make some trades to improve our team for next season but only at the cost of mortgaging the rest of our future and that would be unaccaptable.

But Oklahoma has our pick, we can't rebuild!

Yes we can! It's not worth thinking about the pick anymore, it is gone anyway. Not rebuilding because of that pick only serves one purpose - to hurt Oklahoma.
Wether we trade for that pick or any other equally as valueable pick doesn't make a real difference.
And if you absolutely must get the pick back, just because you don't want to face the possibility of having to give up the first #1 pick in the history of this franchise, then we have to bite the sour apple and trade for it. Oklahoma will certainly listen as they already have 3 top 5 picks on their roster and are on the verge of becomming a very good team, they could use a forward/center or a shooting guard.

Only radical changes will change this team

Getting Porter to change this team didn't work. Beefing up and getting some size didn't change this team except that we were naturally a better rebounding team. Getting some defensive players won't change this team either.

As long as we have a team filled with players who can only play a run and gun style and struggle at a slow pace in the halfcourt like Nash, Barnes, Barbosa for example we will never be able to change our style.

And everyone we draft would be forced to adapt that style and devellop accordingly which makes it even harder to change our style.

That's why we need to purge our roster almost entirely and get new players that a coach with a balanced philosophy can work into his own system.

My Plan

Coaching:
Gentry was a nice pick to try and save this season because he could coach the old style that too many players on this team needed to be effective. Unfortunately ever that didn't work out because of Amare's injury.

I can't see how Gentry could possibly be the Coach of our future unless Kerr breaks his word and goes back to a philosophy of building an entertaining run and gun team with little chance at a title but enough wins to make many people happy.

My target would be:

Flip Saunders!

Why? He can coach a young team, he is a balanced coach who values defense and offense, he is a big name that young players will respect and he has been quite succesful.

Roster Changes:
Like I said, we need radical changes if we rebuild. It is an absolute must to identify the players in the draft that we like and be as aggressive on draft day as we have ever been to get who we want.
Everyone has to be on the trading block with the exception of Dragic, Lopez, Dudley and Amundson because all of them are cheap, have little value anyway and are young. They could still be had obviously but there is no point going around trying to trade them for something.
Amare and Barbosa are players that could be kept around if there is no good deal available. Though Barbosa would have to shopped pretty hard because he does have good value, he is a good player with a very nice contract. The problem is that he falls into the category of guys on our roster that clearly struggle if we don't play at a high pace, knowing that we shouldn't keep him around only to find out that it is really true and try to trade him when it's too late and his value being down.
We should try to keep Grant Hill if he wants, a veteran like Hill is always a good thing on a rebuilding team.

What we should look for in any trade are:
-draftpicks (as high as possible)

-contracts can be worse than the ones we trade since adding FA to a rebuilding team is not important until you get to a level where you need to add just 1 or 2 role players to get to the final level.
The roster should be much cheaper anyway until your good draftpicks get out of their rookie contracts.

-getting veteran players that are known as hard workers to make sure you create the perfect environment for a very young team to get better. Other players like lets say Eddy Curry could still be acquired to make trade works but should be bought out.

-identify young talented players with low value who are flying under the radar or simply need a chance (like Joe Johnson)

History

In 2004 the Suns had a chance to rebuild. They decided against rebuilding through the draft. They wanted to be competetive immediately after failing to make the playoffs the 2nd time since 1989 or so.
Instead of keeping their #7 pick and their caproom to extend Joe Johnson and keep the rest together down the road they spend everything on Steve Nash and QRich forcing them to give up almost all of their draftpicks until 2010 in cost saving moves later.

Had they done what I advocate them to do they could have had Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Leandro Barbosa and Andre Iguodala in 2004-2005. A likely lottery pick in 2005 could have landed them Chris Paul or Deron Williams and if not high enough it would certainly have been high enough to trade up the remaining few spots.
In 2006 they should have been good enough to be considered a good team for many years to come, but with Amare missing the entire 2005-2006 season due to microfracture they would have likely had another lottery pick to add to that team which could have been used to get Lamarcus Aldridge for example giving them Chris Paul, Andre Iguodala, Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire, Lamarcus Aldridge assuming Barbosa and Marion were traded in some way to possibly move up 1-3 spots or get other pieces before that to trade up at that point.
Of course in 2007 Chris Paul was already good enough to absolutely shatter Nash's MVP seasons.

Not only would this have been the best team in the league, at least on paper, but one of the teams with the best future.
The approach Bryan Colangelo took with Mike D'Antoni brought short term immediate success and a grim future.

 

[lou_skywalker]

I think Gentry would be fine, he knows the basics of defense and has great conection to the players. He is also the cheapest option, and money has highest priority right now!

 

[nashman]

2. If they decide not to rebuild this year, they will automatically lose all of the expiring contracts (Shaq,Nash,Amare) which are valueable pieces this year.
If they keep the team together it probably means that they are looking to retool through free agency in 2010 with or without Amare.
But recent history shows that building a team through free agency rarely works. Great players almost never change teams through free agency, Shaq was the only exception over the last 20 years and MAYBE Nash if you want to insist on it (though he was never being looked at as a great player at that time at least).
Also this would prevent us from ever being truly bad so we would never get a high draft pick.

Yeah right! Like Boston didn't just win a championship by trading for 2 great players! Funny how you have Boston as one of your examples then make a crazy comment like that. I would also point out the Lakers ummm them getting Gasol has changed the face of that franchise instantly, not to mention Nash, Shaq... I am sure if I thought about it there are more examples but to say rarely in 20 years is a huge stretch! This team doesn't need to be blown up it just needs to move some pieces and bring some better, younger defensive pieces back.

 

[slinslin]

And how did Boston get those players?

By trading the draftpicks they made and develloped. They had Pierce, Rondo and Perkins and turned Jefferson and Gomes into Garnett and Jeff Green into Ray Allen.

They built their team through the draft, they spent a buch of years to fill their roster with talent.

Gasol didn't come to the Lakers through free agency either. Maybe you have trouble reading but I am sure you can't find another example of a great player changing teams through free agency.

After Shaq and Nash you already have to reach for players like Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway, Elton Brand, an old Pippen, a young Boozer, Lamar Odom and a big gamble on a young Tracy McGrady.

 

[nashman]

Your assuming this FO can even draft good players...hasn't worked out to well in recent years! FA and trades oh I am sorry huge difference this team in not going to pick up high priced FA's I think thats a given but we have some players that we could trade for younger more defensive minded players and develop them, don't need to start from scratch with draft picks that we are unsure the FO can even get right!

 

[green machine]

The problem is a lot of the teams you mention had either the top pick in a draft where there was a franchise talent available or at least a top 5 pick.

The Suns, on the other hand, are likely going to have the last lotto pick possible, which significantly decreases the odds of landing a franchise-type talent.

But I agree it needs to be blow up, just like I agree that Nashman apparently needs to learn how to read.

 

[slinslin]

Well most of those teams didn't get all these players in one offseason.

We are talking about rebuilding, which would most likely mean 3 seasons minimum and 3 lottery picks.
Why have the Suns never had a #1 pick? Could it be that they have traditionally tried for quick fixes instead of healthy periods of rebuilding? Could it be that it is one of the reasons we haven't won a championship?
Sure we lost 2 coin flips for Kareem and David Robinson, but we also didn't have too many good chances to win a #1 pick either.

Yes we only have a #14 pick most likely unless we hit the jackpot, but we have enough pieces to acquire a higher pick also or maybe even two.

Oh and please nashfan, if you can't draft you simply won't be a good team as there are virtually no teams who have built a successful team without great draft picks.

Also how many teams have traded for young players that turned into corner stones for their teams? It's very hard to find too many. As you can see in my original post, almost all of the key players of good teams were also drafted by those teams.

You can't just go and trade for players like that because their teams don't want to trade them. And you can't go and acquire young defensive players , put them in a run and gun system with Nash and expect to change the style of the team. It absolutely works against Nash's strength to play him with offensively limited defensive players.

 

[devilalum]

Truth

There will be a star player available when the Suns pick at #14.

Truth

The Suns will not select this player.

 

[nashman]

Ok slim you want to let this FO try and get Great draft picks huh? Like Robin Lopez? Tucker? Strawberry? Can't even remember the last good draft pick probably Stat or Barbs. Sorry I think blowing this team up with the FO that is now in place just means years and years of sucking and possibly not even getting better with these fools running the show. This team is not that bad they need to make changes definately but don't feel they need to blow it up, and quite frankly thats not going to happen this FO don't want to lose money.

 

[slinslin]

They will lose more money by keeping an expensive team of 36 year old starters and adding overpaid mediocre FA's through free agency.

Staying in a cycle of mediocrity is what you seem to be advocating and that is by far the worst they could do. Good enough to fight for a playoff spot or maybe even a playoff win, but not good enough to win a championship and not bad enough to get a high enough draftpick to build around.

This team isn't even close to winning a championship let alone playoff series.

That's why they need to absolutely focus on the draft. Just because they haven't made great picks lately is no reason to not go this route as it is the only promising route anyway.

Strawberry - Was a very late pick and for that a pretty good one actually.

Dragic - Was a very good pick that late in the draft, it is only a bit questionable that they say he supposedly was #2 on their PG ranking

Tucker - Well, didn't work out, D'Antoni wanted an experienced college player instead of going for a diamond in the rough.

Lopez - Remains to be seen, he has been a bust so far but he is very young and none of the big guys drafted later are world beaters either.
People on here have a hard one for Speights and co but afterall Speights is averaging only 7/3 too.
McGee and DeAndre Jordan aren't that much better either.

 

[green machine]

Ok slim you want to let this FO try and get Great draft picks huh? Like Robin Lopez? Tucker? Strawberry? Can't even remember the last good draft pick probably Stat or Barbs. Sorry I think blowing this team up with the FO that is now in place just means years and years of sucking and possibly not even getting better with these fools running the show. This team is not that bad they need to make changes definately but don't feel they need to blow it up, and quite frankly thats not going to happen this FO don't want to lose money.

You realize this team is 14-12 since the coaching change right? Not exactly dominance.

 

[Duke of Oysters]

Prelude:

Boston - Paul Pierce , Al Jefferson/Ryan Gomes(Kevin Garnett), Jeff Green (Ray Allen), Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins
Portland - Brandon Roy, Lamarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, Sergio Rodriguez, Jerryd Bayless, Martell Webster
New Orleans - Chris Paul, David West
Orlando - Dwight Howard , Jameer Nelson, Courtney Lee
San Antonio Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker

What do these teams have in common? Everyone built their team through multiple draftpicks making a big impact.

The Lakers are a glaring exception to the top pick build a championship

When the Lakers won their recent championships, they were led by a number 13 draft pick (the Suns are looking at #14 probably this year?) and some free agent center that they did not draft.

 

[nashman]

green apparently YOU need to learn how to read (had to do it since you rudely stated the same earlier)! I never said keep the same team in this thread I said you can make some trades for YOUNGER defensive minded players and mix them into some of the current roster and probably have a damn good team. Never said they were dominant but they have shown flashes of brilliance in a very short time under Gentry we just need to address some defense you don't have to blow your team up to do that!

And slin Strawberry was a terrible pick and not even in the league right now, Dragic I did not even mention because he may pan out but this team has NOT shown the ability to be able to draft in recent years. Expecting this to miraculously happen is about like expecting us to be the #1 ranked defense next season!

 

[slinslin]

The Lakers are a glaring exception to the top pick build a championship

When the Lakers won their recent championships, they were led by a number 13 draft pick (the Suns are looking at #14 probably this year?) and some free agent center that they did not draft.

They weren't led by Kobe, they were led by a prime Shaq who I mentioned before is the lone exception in the last 20 or 30 years to change teams via free agency as a superstar.

Also they had the luxury that Kobe Bryant threatened the teams before #13 not to pick him. Bynum will be a factor if they are going to win it anytime soon. So a lot of their success now is based on that, and getting Pau Gasol basically for free which is another exception to the rule doesn't hurt either.

 

[slinslin]

And slin Strawberry was a terrible pick and not even in the league right now.

Seriously get a clue, it isn't even worth discussing with you anymore.

DJ Strawberry was the #59 pick in the draft. It's a good pick just because he could stay in the league for more than a year and generate enough interesst from another team to be traded for the #42 pick in the following season.

 

[Covert Rain]

You realize this team is 14-12 since the coaching change right? Not exactly dominance.

I am leaning towards Gentry is not the answer. At the same time, I don't think this team has the defensive players to play good defense either. Switching back to the running Suns just made a bad defensive team play even worse defense.

It's a crap shoot with Gentry. If you keep Gentry, I think the hope is that he was just catering to the talent this team had. If given more defensive minded players...he could coach. Having said that, this team was playing .500 basketball under Gentry going back to a system that was suppose to cure all of our problems.

My vote would be for getting a good defensive minded coach with a track record like Timmy T. from the Celtics. Not someone like Porter who didn't have a good track record to begin with. Then give that coach free reign to help mold the team (like Phil or Pop did). That is the only way this team ever changes things around here.

 

[elindholm]

It's useful to remember that the NBA is about competition. Assembling a team with "good" players who get "better" is useless if other teams have players who are better to start and improve more. There's nothing magical about acquiring young talent and letting it develop, because the young talent still has to develop to an elite level.

Look at the Bulls of a few years ago, who had good young players coming out their ears. Everyone assumed that they would either cash those young players in at the right time for a superstar, or else let the group develop together. But neither plan panned out, in spite of the team having been graced with several high draft picks.

When the Suns signed Nash, they had four good young players (Stoudemire, Johnson, Marion, Barbosa) and a bunch of cap room. They were in pretty good position. Their strategy didn't pay off with a title, but it worked out pretty well; overall the Suns were probably the third or fourth best team in the league during the Nash/Marion era.

To be a great team, you need to beat the other teams along the critical dimensions: drafting, contract valuation, and timing. The Spurs are a great team not just because they got to draft Robinson and Duncan, but because they got Parker and Ginobili late in the draft and later signed them to reasonable extensions. With last year's Celtics, it was more a matter of timing: Two big stars were on the market at the same time, ready to play complementary roles around the Celtics' current best player, and they happened to have the right assets to acquire both.

Getting a bunch of mid-tier young talent isn't going to do the Suns any good at all, unless at least some of the players prove to be diamonds in the rough (e.g. Kevin Johnson). The Suns haven't drafted well since they took Stoudemire, they don't play the financial game well, and they spend so much time wriggling in quicksand that they have no intuition for their own timing. Declaring a rebuild will merely exchange one kind of futility for another; what the Suns really need is to get much better at the strategic aspects of long-term asset management and positioning. It has already been years since they were good at that, and frankly, I don't see how they can improve with the current power structure.

 

[devilalum]

The free agent signing of Tom Chambers led to one of the biggest win turnarounds in NBA history.

 

[green machine]

green apparently YOU need to learn how to read (had to do it since you rudely stated the same earlier)! I never said keep the same team in this thread I said you can make some trades for YOUNGER defensive minded players and mix them into some of the current roster and probably have a damn good team. Never said they were dominant but they have shown flashes of brilliance in a very short time under Gentry we just need to address some defense you don't have to blow your team up to do that!

And slin Strawberry was a terrible pick and not even in the league right now, Dragic I did not even mention because he may pan out but this team has NOT shown the ability to be able to draft in recent years. Expecting this to miraculously happen is about like expecting us to be the #1 ranked defense next season!

Tell me, how do you plan on adding young, desensive-minded players while keeping the team together?

 

[slinslin]

Look at the Bulls of a few years ago, who had good young players coming out their ears. Everyone assumed that they would either cash those young players in at the right time for a superstar, or else let the group develop together. But neither plan panned out, in spite of the team having been graced with several high draft picks.

Of course there are bad examples like the Bulls or Warriors or Clippers.

They made some not so good picks with their choices and if they did they traded them away for a bust like Brand for example.

But now the future looks pretty bright for the Bulls, they have a franchise player in Derek Rose. The only thing that might hurt them is that they aren't bad enough to add another great player through the draft unless they find one later.
Thank god we didn't give them Amare for Tyrus Thomas and their #15-16 pick...

The advantage of acquiring a lot of draftpicks and young players is this. If they turn out great you simply keep them. If they are just average you look to cash them in for some value at some point to add to your "great" picks.
And the amazing thing is that there are enough teams who still value these young players even if they haven't shown much and there will usually be a team that actually gives up a good player for the chance that maybe the young player will work out for them. Their value isn't declining too quickly.
Minnesota got lucky that Jefferson did breakout when they acquired him for KG, whoever takes Tyrus Thomas won't have that luck and Crittenton and whatever Memphis took for Gasol.. well..

But still you can build a good team with just draftpicks. Look at the Spurs with Duncan, Parker and Ginobili it hardly matters what they put around them.

Boston is the opposite of the Bulls as they cashed in at the right time and made quality picks even with late picks like Jefferson, Perkins, Rondo, Gomes, West, Allen etc.

As I said most of the good teams are completely build around their own draft picks, the other parts are exchangable.

Getting draftpicks and sucking for a couple of seasons is the best thing they can do to start rebuilding and then I agree with you. Once they have done that it comes to strategically managing salaries and assets.
Right now there is no point for that since our team has no future anyway.

 

[TBaslim]

It's useful to remember that the NBA is about competition. Assembling a team with "good" players who get "better" is useless if other teams have players who are better to start and improve more. There's nothing magical about acquiring young talent and letting it develop, because the young talent still has to develop to an elite level.

Look at the Bulls of a few years ago, who had good young players coming out their ears. Everyone assumed that they would either cash those young players in at the right time for a superstar, or else let the group develop together. But neither plan panned out, in spite of the team having been graced with several high draft picks.

When the Suns signed Nash, they had four good young players (Stoudemire, Johnson, Marion, Barbosa) and a bunch of cap room. They were in pretty good position. Their strategy didn't pay off with a title, but it worked out pretty well; overall the Suns were probably the third or fourth best team in the league during the Nash/Marion era.

To be a great team, you need to beat the other teams along the critical dimensions: drafting, contract valuation, and timing. The Spurs are a great team not just because they got to draft Robinson and Duncan, but because they got Parker and Ginobili late in the draft and later signed them to reasonable extensions. With last year's Celtics, it was more a matter of timing: Two big stars were on the market at the same time, ready to play complementary roles around the Celtics' current best player, and they happened to have the right assets to acquire both.

Getting a bunch of mid-tier young talent isn't going to do the Suns any good at all, unless at least some of the players prove to be diamonds in the rough (e.g. Kevin Johnson). The Suns haven't drafted well since they took Stoudemire, they don't play the financial game well, and they spend so much time wriggling in quicksand that they have no intuition for their own timing. Declaring a rebuild will merely exchange one kind of futility for another; what the Suns really need is to get much better at the strategic aspects of long-term asset management and positioning. It has already been years since they were good at that, and frankly, I don't see how they can improve with the current power structure.

Great points.

The Suns went through the 'rebuild through the draft' phase of things back in 1999-2002. That's when they got Marion, Amare, Barbs, and made a great trade for Joe Johnson.

What they needed in 2004, after the fun of Starbury and Frank Johnson, was some veteran leadership to take them to the next level. Hence the move for Steve Nash and Q. Now, Q can be debated, along with the trade of the #7 pick, but signing Nash was EXACTLY what a team of stud, fast, young players needed.

Since then, yes, the team has made a bunch of bad decisions to try to move from one of the best teams in the league to the best team in the league. The worst of these, by far, was not signing Joe Johnson (never let great young talent get away like that). The close second worse was trading/selling away so many draft picks (aaaarrgghhh!!).

Both of those problems, plus the inevitability of age and mileage, got us to where we are now. It had nothing to do with the decision to sign Nash.

Further, every team has a window, and in pro basketball that window is short for most teams. Usually there are a handful of dominant players at any given time in the league. If built right, their teams stay competitive during the peak of those players careers (anywhere from 4-8 years). Some exceptions have decade long runs of dominance (Magic, Bird, Jordan, Shaq, Duncan), but most have ups and downs (Barkley, Malone, Kobe, KG, etc).

My guess is that the Suns had hoped that they could get two 'cycles' out of Amare's career. The first paired up with 'vets' like Nash and Marion - and Nash turned out to be far better than expected in the run-n-gun. The second 'cycle' with Amare would have been with younger players, starting about now. They got 4 great years out of the first cycle. Injuries and bad planning leave much in question for the second.

My point is that it's not a failure of the team that was - the time is just coming to rebuild again for the next 'cycle' of success. The key is that there is a strategic vision for what that looks like and a good plan to get there. We will see...

 

[slinslin]

You can't call 1999-2002 rebuilding... We were never rebuilding with Kidd and backcourt 2000 etc..

In fact we have never rebuild in the last 20 years. We only missed the playoffs 3 times including this year.

I also wouldn't call Malone's run or Kobe's run having ups and downs and another thing is that all the players you mentioned had these runs for the teams that drafted them with like I said the exception of Shaq and since you mentioned him KG although clearly past his prime and well Barkley although he was a contender in only one season of his career.

Next thing is most of these teams had own allstar quality draftpicks to go along with these players, Pippen (technically not a Bulls pick but still), Kobe to Shaq, Stockton to Malone, Parker/Ginobili to Duncan, Worthy to Magic (and a Shaq-like exception in Kareem), McHale to Bird etc

Worthy was a number #1 pick and McHale was a #3 pick, Boston had the #1 pick and traded it with another first round pick for #3 McHale and Parrish...

It would have been smart to plan on 2 cycles with Amare as you said, but if they actually did plan on that... Why would you recklessly trade away your draftpicks which would have been fundamental for that cycle?
Why would you extend Nash now when he would have to make room if the rumors are indeed true.

Basically the Suns have Barbosa, JRich, Amundson, Dudley, Dragic and Lopez who they could keep for the entire 2nd cycle so to say, but you wouldn't keep Nash and Shaq. You would be the same team then, only worse.