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We spent the last weeks on the best and worst basestealers and gloves. This one focuses on real fantasy baseball value. These are the ten hitters who’ve actively cost you in fantasy so far, ranked on real 5×5 production: runs, homers, RBI, steals, average, with the average weighted by playing time, so a bad line over 300 plate appearances counts for more than a bad line over 200. The advanced metrics don’t decide the order; they explain it, sorting the busts from the buy-low. Counting stats are what happened, but contact quality is what should’ve. Let’s get into it.
MORE: MLB Power Rankings: All 30 teams ranked worst to first to begin July
Jun 22, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Cleveland Guardians first baseman Rhys Hoskins (8) hits a single RBI against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images
To start the top 10, we look at Cleveland Guardians’ first baseman Rhys Hoskins, whose 7 homers and 27 RBI are ownable, but a .174 average with 25 runs and zero steals torches the rest. And there’s no rescue coming, because a .283 xwOBA under a .300 wOBA means the contact backs the ugly line. That’s just what he is right now.
Another level of bad comes with Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Adolis Garcia, whose .195 buries 7 homers and 21 RBI, but the contact screams misfire. His .294 xwOBA against a .269 wOBA on 48% hard-hit shows he’s hitting the ball harder than the results show. He will be out for the remainder of the season, though, so he has no chance to improve.
The Boston Red Sox second baseman’s .220 comes with almost nothing around it. He only has 3 homers, 22 RBI, and is quiet everywhere else. The expected stats don’t offer a lifeline either. It shows a .259 xwOBA sitting under the .267 wOBA, with only 6.1% barrels. This is soft contact producing a soft line, not bad luck waiting to break.
St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Gorman’s 7 homers and 26 RBI are the only things going for him. He has a low .194 average with zero steals, which sinks everything else. There’s a slight chance of improvement, as he has a .278 xwOBA over a .267 wOBA, but on 43.8% hard-hit and 9.2% barrels, the rebound tops out at ordinary, not startable.
Apr 18, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Cincinnati Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson (37) looks to the dougout before a pitch against the Minnesota Twins in the seventh inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images
Here’s a name to buy. Tyler Stephenson’s .218 and empty line landed him here, but the contact is loud: a .334 xwOBA against a .295 wOBA, 46.7% hard-hit, 10.7% barrels. He’s earned far more than he’s shown, so this is the clearest rebound case on the board.
Brice Matthews checks every box you don’t want with a .199, six homers, and a 33% strikeout rate. And the contact confirms it: a .262 xwOBA basically dead-on his .259 wOBA. Nothing here says the average climbs. It’s a rookie getting exposed, not a rookie getting robbed.
Six steals is the one useful thing, but a .205 average and a 30% strikeout rate drown Miami Marlins first baseman, Connor Norby. A .282 xwOBA, actually below his .293 wOBA, shows he’s actually been slightly lucky. No hard-contact base to bounce off of.
Apr 8, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians center fielder Steven Kwan (38) rounds third base en route to scoring during the second inning against the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
A big surprise on this list comes in Steven Kwan’s .213 over a heavy 302 plate appearances. His .305 xwOBA nudges past the .273 wOBA, but on 0.4% barrels and 9.6% hard-hit, that’s the weakest contact in the pool. The upside is a slightly less-empty average.
The second-worst fantasy hitter is Cal Raleigh, with his eight homers and 21 RBI. His .165 average bleeds a category by itself, and the runs and steals never show up to cover it. The .289 xwOBA over .261 wOBA says he’ll hit better, and the homers keep him rosterable while you wait it out.
The worst fantasy hitter is none other than Milwaukee Brewers’ third baseman Luis Rengifo. A .205 average, zero homers, 19 runs, 19 RBI, and three steals scream empty in all five. There’s mild regression buried in a .296 xwOBA over a .244 wOBA, but 4.8% barrels mean it corrects toward ordinary, not useful.
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MORE: MLB Power Rankings: All 30 teams ranked worst to first to begin July
10. Rhys Hoskins
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Jun 22, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Cleveland Guardians first baseman Rhys Hoskins (8) hits a single RBI against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images
To start the top 10, we look at Cleveland Guardians’ first baseman Rhys Hoskins, whose 7 homers and 27 RBI are ownable, but a .174 average with 25 runs and zero steals torches the rest. And there’s no rescue coming, because a .283 xwOBA under a .300 wOBA means the contact backs the ugly line. That’s just what he is right now.
9. Adolis García, Philadelphia
Another level of bad comes with Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Adolis Garcia, whose .195 buries 7 homers and 21 RBI, but the contact screams misfire. His .294 xwOBA against a .269 wOBA on 48% hard-hit shows he’s hitting the ball harder than the results show. He will be out for the remainder of the season, though, so he has no chance to improve.
8. Marcelo Mayer, Boston
The Boston Red Sox second baseman’s .220 comes with almost nothing around it. He only has 3 homers, 22 RBI, and is quiet everywhere else. The expected stats don’t offer a lifeline either. It shows a .259 xwOBA sitting under the .267 wOBA, with only 6.1% barrels. This is soft contact producing a soft line, not bad luck waiting to break.
7. Nolan Gorman, St. Louis
St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Gorman’s 7 homers and 26 RBI are the only things going for him. He has a low .194 average with zero steals, which sinks everything else. There’s a slight chance of improvement, as he has a .278 xwOBA over a .267 wOBA, but on 43.8% hard-hit and 9.2% barrels, the rebound tops out at ordinary, not startable.
6. Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati
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Apr 18, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Cincinnati Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson (37) looks to the dougout before a pitch against the Minnesota Twins in the seventh inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images
Here’s a name to buy. Tyler Stephenson’s .218 and empty line landed him here, but the contact is loud: a .334 xwOBA against a .295 wOBA, 46.7% hard-hit, 10.7% barrels. He’s earned far more than he’s shown, so this is the clearest rebound case on the board.
5. Brice Matthews, Houston
Brice Matthews checks every box you don’t want with a .199, six homers, and a 33% strikeout rate. And the contact confirms it: a .262 xwOBA basically dead-on his .259 wOBA. Nothing here says the average climbs. It’s a rookie getting exposed, not a rookie getting robbed.
4. Connor Norby, Miami
Six steals is the one useful thing, but a .205 average and a 30% strikeout rate drown Miami Marlins first baseman, Connor Norby. A .282 xwOBA, actually below his .293 wOBA, shows he’s actually been slightly lucky. No hard-contact base to bounce off of.
3. Steven Kwan, Cleveland
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Apr 8, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians center fielder Steven Kwan (38) rounds third base en route to scoring during the second inning against the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
A big surprise on this list comes in Steven Kwan’s .213 over a heavy 302 plate appearances. His .305 xwOBA nudges past the .273 wOBA, but on 0.4% barrels and 9.6% hard-hit, that’s the weakest contact in the pool. The upside is a slightly less-empty average.
2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle
The second-worst fantasy hitter is Cal Raleigh, with his eight homers and 21 RBI. His .165 average bleeds a category by itself, and the runs and steals never show up to cover it. The .289 xwOBA over .261 wOBA says he’ll hit better, and the homers keep him rosterable while you wait it out.
1. Luis Rengifo, Milwaukee
The worst fantasy hitter is none other than Milwaukee Brewers’ third baseman Luis Rengifo. A .205 average, zero homers, 19 runs, 19 RBI, and three steals scream empty in all five. There’s mild regression buried in a .296 xwOBA over a .244 wOBA, but 4.8% barrels mean it corrects toward ordinary, not useful.
— Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories on The Big Lead —
Continue reading...
