QBOTF

[gimpy]

I was just wondering what everyone's definition or idea of a QBOTF is?

Every one talks about it and we all want one. But, is there a certain performance and/or time length associated with it or what?

Both Warner and Palmer were here about 5 years(?) each. Were either one or both or neither considered a QBOTF for us?

Just kinda curious.

 

[splitsecond]

Basically, when we don't win a Super Bowl within 1 year of having a veteran take over, a bunch of people think we are doomed to ever win a Super Bowl with that veteran, and want to draft a mythical unicorn who will save us.

At least that's what I have gathered in my time seeing that acronym around here.

 

[JeffGollin]

Def: A young, untested QB expected to be a successful starter in a few years. (No guarantee, but expectations are pretty high).

(Note - Palmer and Warner had too many years under their belt (and were, say, 75% of the way along their development curves) to be considered "future" prospects.

Think of a QBOF as a clean slate and Kurt/Carson as pretty much filled-in blackboards.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Neither Warner nor Palmer were QBOTF by my definition. We’re they both successful retreads? Yes, and wildly so. But getting 5 seasons (or really 3 seasons and 2 partial seasons in Carson’s case) isn’t about the future. “The future” is a QB that you hope to have starting for 8+ years. That’s what the top guys give you. That and more. I look at the teams that have had great consistency and I see franchise QBs that, barring injury, will be there a decade+

Rodgers
Brady
Wilson
Roethlisberger
Flacco
Eli
Rivers

The teams that have young guys that could evolve into that:

Titans
Bucs
Cowboys
Eagles
Rams
Niners
Texans
Chiefs (mahomes)
Colts (if Luck fully recovers)
Raiders (if Carr can reverse this year)
Bears

Guys like smith, the red rifle and the skins QB (name all of a sudden escapes me) are the in between guys.

Lots of teams searching.

 

[slanidrac16]

Neither Warner nor Palmer were QBOTF by my definition. We’re they both successful retreads? Yes, and wildly so. But getting 5 seasons (or really 3 seasons and 2 partial seasons in Carson’s case) isn’t about the future. “The future” is a QB that you hope to have starting for 8+ years. That’s what the top guys give you. That and more. I look at the teams that have had great consistency and I see franchise QBs that, barring injury, will be there a decade+

Rodgers
Brady
Wilson
Roethlisberger
Flacco
Eli
Rivers

The teams that have young guys that could evolve into that:

Titans
Bucs
Cowboys
Eagles
Rams
Niners
Texans
Chiefs (mahomes)
Colts (if Luck fully recovers)
Raiders (if Carr can reverse this year)
Bears

Guys like smith, the red rifle and the skins QB (name all of a sudden escapes me) are the in between guys.

Lots of teams searching.

I think Cousins could be an instant qbotf without the wait.

 

[Solar7]

I think a QBOTF is a young guy that we can confidently start for the majority of his career. Someone who can potentially find himself in the top 10, if not top 5, at the position year-to-year. He may not be the league's absolute best, but the conversation about replacing him won't really happen. The focus will be on building a team around this guy.

However, I think the majority of the board looks at is as "the next Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers."

 

[Stout]

Basically, when we don't win a Super Bowl within 1 year of having a veteran take over, a bunch of people think we are doomed to ever win a Super Bowl with that veteran, and want to draft a mythical unicorn who will save us.

At least that's what I have gathered in my time seeing that acronym around here.

LOL That's certainly a myopic way of interpreting it.

@Solar7 said it pretty well.

 

[Jetstream Green]

With the way this franchise has reacted to drafting a young guy, they might need a Delorean to go back and get it right lol

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I think Cousins could be an instant qbotf without the wait.

Isn’t he 29? He’s older than many of us think he is. He’s no Brady either. I doubt he’s playing at 39.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I think a QBOTF is a young guy that we can confidently start for the majority of his career. Someone who can potentially find himself in the top 10, if not top 5, at the position year-to-year. He may not be the league's absolute best, but the conversation about replacing him won't really happen. The focus will be on building a team around this guy.

However, I think the majority of the board looks at is as "the next Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers."

The latter would be optimal, but I think the majority of us would be 100% fine with the former given our history. Since the cards moved to az whats the longest starting tenure any QB has had? We would jump at a guy that we could build around for 10 years.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I think Cousins could be an instant qbotf without the wait.

Blegh.

NFL Franchises dont let QBOTF hit FA, guys. If he’s on the market, there’s a good reason.

 

[oaken1]

The latter would be optimal, but I think the majority of us would be 100% fine with the former given our history. Since the cards moved to az whats the longest starting tenure any QB has had? We would jump at a guy that we could build around for 10 years.

I think that was Jake.

the way the rules have changed I see the QBOTF as a 15-17 year guy... look at all the guys playing to 40,...it used to be just warren moon...and who..DeBerg, Flutie,...testeverde...all played until 43 or 44 right?
But more recently Favre and Brunell both played to 40... now Brady and Brees

I think it is realistic to expect a franchise QB to play until 38-40 years old... the rules are protecting them more,...and they say the athletes are getting better.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I think that was Jake.

the way the rules have changed I see the QBOTF as a 15-17 year guy... look at all the guys playing to 40,...it used to be just warren moon...and who..DeBerg, Flutie,...testeverde...all played until 43 or 44 right?
But more recently Favre and Brunell both played to 40... now Brady and Brees

I think it is realistic to expect a franchise QB to play until 38-40 years old... the rules are protecting them more,...and they say the athletes are getting better.

Out of the hundreds of QBs that have played in the league during the decades you just covered you just named 8 guys. Three or four of whom weren’t starting regularly late in their careers and certainly not for their original teams. I don’t think we are going to see multitudes of guys playing that long.

 

[oaken1]

Out of the hundreds of QBs that have played in the league during the decades you just covered you just named 8 guys. Three or four of whom weren’t starting regularly late in their careers and certainly not for their original teams. I don’t think we are going to see multitudes of guys playing that long.

I just looked it up and there were lots of guys back in the day... then it tapered off...
but it looks like it is making a comeback

didnt realize george Blanda played until he was 48...damn...
here are the guuys who played at 40... others were higher...

-40-
Darren Bennett P 2005 Minnesota Vikings January 9, 1965
Tom Brady* QB 2017 New England Patriots August 3, 1977
Charlie Conerly QB 1961 New York Giants September 19, 1921
Len Dawson QB 1975 Kansas City Chiefs June 20, 1935
Vince Evans QB 1995 Oakland Raiders June 14, 1955
Joe Ferguson QB 1990 Indianapolis Colts April 23, 1950
Jim Hart QB 1984 Washington Redskins April 29, 1944
Matt Hasselbeck QB 2015 Indianapolis Colts September 25, 1975
Mike Horan P 1999 St. Louis Rams February 1, 1959
Brad Johnson QB 2008 Dallas Cowboys September 13, 1968
Sonny Jurgensen QB 1974 Washington Redskins August 23, 1934
Dave Krieg QB 1998 Tennessee Oilers October 20, 1958
Pat Leahy K 1991 New York Jets March 19, 1951
Nick Lowery K 1996 New York Jets May 27, 1956
Bruce Matthews OL 2001 Tennessee Titans August 8, 1961
Clay Matthews LB 1996 Atlanta Falcons March 15, 1956
Phil Nesser G-T-WB 1921 Columbus Panhandles December 10, 1880
Sav Rocca P 2013 Washington Redskins November 20, 1973
Junior Seau LB 2009 New England Patriots January 19, 1969
Bruce Smith DE 2003 Washington Redskins June 18, 1963
Jim Thorpe HB 1928 Chicago Cardinals May 28, 1888
Johnny Unitas QB 1973 San Diego Chargers May 7, 1933
Jeff Van Note C 1986 Atlanta Falcons February 7, 1946
Wade Wilson+ QB 1999 Oakland Raiders February 1, 1959


Most of the old guys were kickers... but it surprises me to see linebackers and olinemen in the mix

 

[Garthshort]

I think that Cousins is pretty good but not $30M good. Congrats to him and his agent for putting himself in a position to earn the really big bucks. Just hope that it's another team that pays him. Of course if does get $30M or close to it, it will mean that more QB's will get more $$$.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Great thread gimpy---made me organize my thinking on a QBOTF and can get the forum on some common ground.

Part of the OBOTF MYTH is that there is one or more QB available in every draft who will come in and not only (1) Be the key guy to start winning immediately, (2) Become the face of the franchise for years to come, (3) Will take the team on his back and elevate everyone—even the D and a lousy O playbook and coaching to greater heights, and most importantly (4) Will lead the team to not just one but several SB wins. The myth lives on because there are the very rare instances where the stars and planets all align and a QB does all of the above and becomes an actual unicorn siting.

Central to the myth is that we can get that ‘unicorn’ if only the GM and front office were as smart as the average fan in drafting players. Teams with top draft choices really get hammered if they make a mistake and pick a QB who falls flat and doesn’t live up to the hope and hype. Next in line for GM sins is to not trade up to get that guy—stand pat and let other teams make their move. What will really burn a fan base against a GM is when a QB gets passed over and is drafted in later rounds who becomes the guy for another team—case in point is Russell Wilson and to a lesser extent Derek Carr, Prescott.

The difference in the college game compared to the pro makes it more-and-more difficult to evaluate a QB----some of the guys coming out of college have never taken a snap under center and have to be taught this basic skill. Some have never made pre-snap adjustments or stepped to the line and instantly read the D and go through a progression. Way too many don’t have the rare capacity to recode the brain on how to play the pro game. Consider the thousands of jet plane pilots and brain surgeons and realize there are less than 20 good-to-superior NFL QBs.

Forget the QBOTF myth and focus on a QB who has shown he can play vs NFL defenses. A successful young vet is a much safer bet vs that draft choice simply because he has done it. Too many teams are going for that superstar myth when they have a legitimate player already on the roster----Cousins and Smith come to mind. Sure, we all want a Brady or a Rogers—when what we need is a competitive QB who can implement the playbook, not make mistakes, and mesh with the rest of the team, make that special play when needed. There are legitimate superstars on the Cards O—we got a HOF RB in AD and a HOF WR in Larry—we got an emerging star in DJ—we got some grinders like KW. Cards had an 8-8 record with our O with QB Gabbert and Stanton under center. Upgrade that QB position with an above average guy like Cousins or Smith and we are in the playoffs. Eagles have rallied around Foles (who was available to the Cards) and are going to the SB.

We need a QB for the HERE-AND-NOW. We have an older roster—to get a drafted unicorn will require some draft/trade capital that will leave us with the next couple of drafts to restock the roster—exposing a young QB to the misery of not having a supporting cast.