TheCardinal
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No elimination scenarios yet for the Cardinals for Week 14. Obviously no clinching scenarios yet for us either. You can cue Jim Mora about our chances of making the post-season, but for those keeping score at home, here is how things shape up for the Cardinals in potential tie-breakers. Most of what follows gets down into the weeds and relies on unlikely scenarios, but I've highlighted the most important parts.
New Orleans (10-2): We can only catch the Saints at 10-6. Should that occur, we would have matching conference records (8-4) and matching records in common games (3-2). It would come down to strength-of-victory, where we currently lead by the razor-thin margin of 50.5 vs 49. (including the forced outcomes in the above assumptions, but not counting the Sunday/Monday/Tuesday games from Week 13, still pending).
Green Bay (9-3): If the Packers' only remaining win is against TEN (a "cheaper" AFC win), we would beat them in a 10-6 tie. Anything else at 9-7 or 10-6, and it would come down to common games where we would have to beat PHI/SNF while they would have to lose to DET/CRL to tie things up at 3-2. Then it's down to strength-of-victory (too many possibilities to work these out at this time). Incidentally, NOS and GBP have the same common games with us (PHI/DET/CRL/SNF) even in a 3-way tie.
Los Angeles (8-4): A win by the Cardinals in the season finale would even up H2H and at worst force a tie in division games. We would beat them in common games record. They would, however, escape us only in a 3-way tie with SEA should the Rams beat them in Week 16 (H2H 3-1 vs 2-2 vs 1-3). Oddly enough, a Rams' sweep over the Cardinals doesn't automatically clinch tie-breakers over us, as we could still use a 3-way tie with SNF (or 4-way tie at 9-7), to come out on top. A SNF loss to BUF Monday night eliminates this possibility as SNF would be forced into 8 losses.
Seattle (8-4): H2H is 1-1. Divisional records are 2-2 currently. If we end up with the same divisional records, the Cardinals would win the tie-breaker on common games.
Tampa Bay (7-5): The Bucs are guaranteed the better AFC record, which means the Cardinals have clinched the better NFC record should the teams wind up tied, regardless of from where our remaining wins come. Thus, the Cardinals have clinched tie-breakers against the Bucs.
Minnesota (6-6): The Vikings did win their remaining "cheaper" AFC game against JAC, so the Cardinals and Vikings WILL finish with the same NFC record should they finish tied overall. Next would be common games, where MIN leads 2-2 vs 2-3 (DET/CRL/DAL/SEA). For the Cardinals to have any chance to win a 1-on-1 tie-breaker over MIN, one of the Vikings' remaining losses would have to be at DET in Week 17 to push things to strength-of-victory. In any other scenario, the Cardinals would lose 1-on-1 tie-breakers with them.
San Francisco (5-6): If the Cardinals sweep, the 49ers cannot sneak past us in a tie (2-way, 3-way, or 4-way). If we split, the divisional records would be 3-2 for them, 2-3 for us. If we end up tied there, common games are also guaranteed to be tied. Conference record is next, and if one of their wins is against the "cheaper" AFC opponent, BUF, we would win that step. If they replace that potential win with an NFC win, it would go to strength-of-victory.
Chicago (5-7): In a tie, at best we could only match their conference record, and the Bears have now clinched common games over us, thus they would win any 1-on-1 tie-breaker against us. I suppose there is still an out, with a 3-way tie involving wild-card NYG, DAL, or CRL to negate the common games step and push it to strength-of-victory, but even I won't spend the time working those out just yet. A more realistic scenario would involve MIN and CHI finishing with the same record, with the Vikings covering up the Bears so that we won't face them in a tie-breaker (only the highest-ranked tied team within a division faces off against tied teams from other divisions at each wild-card tie-breaker step).
Detroit (5-7): The Lions beat us, so they would win any 1-on-1 tie-breaker against us. There are potential scenarios where we could still pass them on tie-breakers, but it would require them winning their "cheaper" AFC game against TEN, and forcing a 3-way tie with DAL or maybe wild-card NYG with everyone winning specific games. Again, not going to spend more time on this one yet.
Also, not going to work out tie-breakers with the NFC East, Atlanta, or Carolina at this time.
New Orleans (10-2): We can only catch the Saints at 10-6. Should that occur, we would have matching conference records (8-4) and matching records in common games (3-2). It would come down to strength-of-victory, where we currently lead by the razor-thin margin of 50.5 vs 49. (including the forced outcomes in the above assumptions, but not counting the Sunday/Monday/Tuesday games from Week 13, still pending).
Green Bay (9-3): If the Packers' only remaining win is against TEN (a "cheaper" AFC win), we would beat them in a 10-6 tie. Anything else at 9-7 or 10-6, and it would come down to common games where we would have to beat PHI/SNF while they would have to lose to DET/CRL to tie things up at 3-2. Then it's down to strength-of-victory (too many possibilities to work these out at this time). Incidentally, NOS and GBP have the same common games with us (PHI/DET/CRL/SNF) even in a 3-way tie.
Los Angeles (8-4): A win by the Cardinals in the season finale would even up H2H and at worst force a tie in division games. We would beat them in common games record. They would, however, escape us only in a 3-way tie with SEA should the Rams beat them in Week 16 (H2H 3-1 vs 2-2 vs 1-3). Oddly enough, a Rams' sweep over the Cardinals doesn't automatically clinch tie-breakers over us, as we could still use a 3-way tie with SNF (or 4-way tie at 9-7), to come out on top. A SNF loss to BUF Monday night eliminates this possibility as SNF would be forced into 8 losses.
Seattle (8-4): H2H is 1-1. Divisional records are 2-2 currently. If we end up with the same divisional records, the Cardinals would win the tie-breaker on common games.
Tampa Bay (7-5): The Bucs are guaranteed the better AFC record, which means the Cardinals have clinched the better NFC record should the teams wind up tied, regardless of from where our remaining wins come. Thus, the Cardinals have clinched tie-breakers against the Bucs.
Minnesota (6-6): The Vikings did win their remaining "cheaper" AFC game against JAC, so the Cardinals and Vikings WILL finish with the same NFC record should they finish tied overall. Next would be common games, where MIN leads 2-2 vs 2-3 (DET/CRL/DAL/SEA). For the Cardinals to have any chance to win a 1-on-1 tie-breaker over MIN, one of the Vikings' remaining losses would have to be at DET in Week 17 to push things to strength-of-victory. In any other scenario, the Cardinals would lose 1-on-1 tie-breakers with them.
San Francisco (5-6): If the Cardinals sweep, the 49ers cannot sneak past us in a tie (2-way, 3-way, or 4-way). If we split, the divisional records would be 3-2 for them, 2-3 for us. If we end up tied there, common games are also guaranteed to be tied. Conference record is next, and if one of their wins is against the "cheaper" AFC opponent, BUF, we would win that step. If they replace that potential win with an NFC win, it would go to strength-of-victory.
Chicago (5-7): In a tie, at best we could only match their conference record, and the Bears have now clinched common games over us, thus they would win any 1-on-1 tie-breaker against us. I suppose there is still an out, with a 3-way tie involving wild-card NYG, DAL, or CRL to negate the common games step and push it to strength-of-victory, but even I won't spend the time working those out just yet. A more realistic scenario would involve MIN and CHI finishing with the same record, with the Vikings covering up the Bears so that we won't face them in a tie-breaker (only the highest-ranked tied team within a division faces off against tied teams from other divisions at each wild-card tie-breaker step).
Detroit (5-7): The Lions beat us, so they would win any 1-on-1 tie-breaker against us. There are potential scenarios where we could still pass them on tie-breakers, but it would require them winning their "cheaper" AFC game against TEN, and forcing a 3-way tie with DAL or maybe wild-card NYG with everyone winning specific games. Again, not going to spend more time on this one yet.
Also, not going to work out tie-breakers with the NFC East, Atlanta, or Carolina at this time.
