Playoff Picture 2021

[TheCardinal]

How come we are listed as the 4th seed. We have the same record of the Bucs, yet the Saints beat them twice. Our conference record is 4-1. Shouldn't we be the 3rd seed?

Cards and Bucs have the same conference record at the moment. Division record wouldn’t apply. The Bucs lead on common games, which would eventually include DAL/IND/LAR/CRL/CHI (they are 3-1 and we are 2-2, each team with 2 such games remaining). However, some analyses would only include common games already played, which would technically only include LAR/CHI (we haven’t yet played DAL/IND while they haven’t yet played CRL); versus LAR/CHI we are 2-1 and they are 1-1, but fails to reach the minimum of four. The next step is strength of victory, which the Bucs led as of last week (I haven’t recalculated through this week yet, I believe their lead was 6 last week).

 

[AustrianCardFan]

Cards and Bucs have the same conference record at the moment. Division record wouldn’t apply. The Bucs lead on common games, which would eventually include DAL/IND/LAR/CRL/CHI (they are 3-1 and we are 2-2, each team with 2 such games remaining). However, some analyses would only include common games already played, which would technically only include LAR/CHI (we haven’t yet played DAL/IND while they haven’t yet played CRL); versus LAR/CHI we are 2-1 and they are 1-1, but fails to reach the minimum of four. The next step is strength of victory, which the Bucs led as of last week (I haven’t recalculated through this week yet, I believe their lead was 6 last week).

So division rivals count aswell for common games? That seems a bit unfair to me, I mean (at least if you are not the Cardinals lol) playing the Panthers twice seems a lot easier than facing the Rams twice...

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

So division rivals count aswell for common games? That seems a bit unfair to me, I mean (at least if you are not the Cardinals lol) playing the Panthers twice seems a lot easier than facing the Rams twice...

It wouldn’t be for us.

 

[TheCardinal]

So division rivals count aswell for common games? That seems a bit unfair to me, I mean (at least if you are not the Cardinals lol) playing the Panthers twice seems a lot easier than facing the Rams twice...

Yes, both meetings would count towards common games.

 

[AustrianCardFan]

Yes, both meetings would count towards common games.

Wow, imo they should change that, why would you give the team with the easier division an advantage there?

 

[TheCardinal]

Wow, imo they should change that, why would you give the team with the easier division an advantage there?

I don’t disagree with your point. The problem would be which game to drop (home, away, neither, both), and still satisfying the “minimum of four.” Some college basketball tie-breakers use a modified common opponent format where 1-0 doesn’t beat 1-1 (if the teams COULD’VE been tied had they played the opponent the same number of times). I suppose the NFL could say “2-0 beats 0-1” or “1-0 beats 0-2,” and give the team with the advantage one point towards the tie-breaker step, otherwise that opponent isn’t counted.

However when this step is usually applied, it is between two teams where the TOTAL number of games is equal (even if not equitably distributed).

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Cards have--by far--the most difficult last three games of all of the current top 7 in the NFC....if playoffs started today they'd face the Rams in the Wild card l...

 

[Cheesebeef]

Cards have--by far--the most difficult last three games of all of the current top 7 in the NFC....if playoffs started today they'd face the Rams in the Wild card l...

nah. After tomorrow's win over Seattle, the Rams still have to go to the Vikings and Baltimore and play the Niners (who own them). That's three teams in the thick of the playoff race in their final 3 with 2 road games. We have two teams in the thick of the playoff race with the Colts and Cowboys and a bad Seattle team, with 2 home games. The Seattle game is what makes our schedule easier once we're tied up. There's no bad team in the bunch that the Rams still have to face. They'll lose at least one of those three, if not more.

remember, before they played the Arizona Choking Cards on MNF, they were getting just drilled by anyone with a pulse for a month previous. They're not all of a sudden gangbusters because we choked a game away to them.

 

[TheCardinal]

Vikings beat the Bears. No clinching scenarios left for us in Week 15.

Tomorrow night, a WSH/PHI tie is still best since it wipes out both teams in terms of catching us. However, short of a tie, a loss by PHI (instead of WSH) gives us more clinching options next week since it takes away a favorable 3-way tie-breaker for MIN (the Vikings can now only overtake us if they have PHI or NO also at 10-7).

Obviously, we’d root against the Rams in the other game. A loss by LA also opens up other clinching scenarios for Week 16 and clearly helps us in the division race.

 

[sdscard4]

Last time I checked we still have the 2nd best record in the NFC. Have we sucked to holy hell the last 2 weeks? Yes...but I've also seen us adapt and win. Who actually thought we could beat SF and Seattle without nuke and kyler? We did...which means you acknowledge we are a good team since we did win those games...we may get these Colts and have a great xmas

 

[82CardsGrad]

Last time I checked we still have the 2nd best record in the NFC. Have we sucked to holy hell the last 2 weeks? Yes...but I've also seen us adapt and win. Who actually thought we could beat SF and Seattle without nuke and kyler? We did...which means you acknowledge we are a good team since we did win those games...we may get these Colts and have a great xmas

Where have you seen this team “adapt and win” with Kyler playing? I think I missed that feature of the Kliff and Kyler show…

 

[sdscard4]

Where have you seen this team “adapt and win” with Kyler playing? I think I missed that feature of the Kliff and Kyler show…

I've just seen lots of wins...guess I'm old school . I've seen bad Cardinal teams...BAD. I'm thankful it's Xmas time and we're playing for the playoffs...don't get much of that around these parts.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I've just seen lots of wins...guess I'm old school . I've seen bad Cardinal teams...BAD. I'm thankful it's Xmas time and we're playing for the playoffs...don't get much of that around these parts.

not in the playoffs yet!

 

[TheCardinal]

The short version preview for the Week 16 clinching scenarios going into Tuesday night’s games.

If Washington loses, we need:
ARI win OR a loss by 2 out of 4: NO/SF/MIN/PHI.

If Philly loses, we need:
ARI win OR NO loss OR a loss by 2 out of 3: SF/MIN/WSH. The difference here is that a Saints loss alone gets us in (since it also kills off the Vikings in the process)

If WSH/PHI tie, we need:
ARI win OR NO loss OR SF loss OR MIN loss.

If Rams lose:
Adds a couple of scenarios involving SF ties. Also would clinch tie-breaker by us over LA.

 

[ajcardfan]

Where have you seen this team “adapt and win” with Kyler playing? I think I missed that feature of the Kliff and Kyler show…

Every time they won a game???

 

[TheCardinal]

Your unofficial Week 16 clinching scenarios:

ARI win/tie

OR

Any two of the following:
a) SF loss
b) NO loss/tie
c) MIN loss/tie
d) PHI loss/tie

In fact, these hold true for the rest of the season. Any 49ers loss, or any loss/tie by the Saints, Vikings, or Eagles would remove them from the list. Kill off two of them and we clinch. Or just win/tie any of our remaining games. For us to be eliminated, the Rams would also have to win one more game.

 

[Russ Smith]

Your unofficial Week 16 clinching scenarios:

ARI win/tie

OR

Any two of the following:
a) SF loss
b) NO loss/tie
c) MIN loss/tie
d) PHI loss/tie

In fact, these hold true for the rest of the season. Any 49ers loss, or any loss/tie by the Saints, Vikings, or Eagles would remove them from the list. Kill off two of them and we clinch. Or just win/tie any of our remaining games. For us to be eliminated, the Rams would also have to win one more game.

Thanks that's a lot of work to figure those out

 

[Hoodhero]

Rams vs Vikings, 49ers vs Titans both this weekend. Vikings vs Packers next week & 49ers @ Rams to end season. Eagles got 3 remaining games against each team in division. Cards are going to make playoffs. The big question is it as division winner or bottom seed barely running on fumes just happy to show up.

 

[TheCardinal]

For those who are interested in deeper details:

As far as the Cardinals are concerned, a loss by PHI or NO carries more weight than a loss by SF or MIN. That is because SF and MIN still have to play the Rams. If the Eagles or Saints lose a game, to keep us out of the playoffs, it forces BOTH the Vikings and 49ers to win out (49ers can tie one), handing the Rams two more losses. Then, to knock us out, the Rams would HAVE TO either beat the Ravens, or have their game against SF finish exactly in a tie.

There is also a very unlikely scenario where PHI/MIN/ARI finish 10-7 for the last two spots, and we sneak in, but would require the Eagles to overcome a massive strength of victory deficit against MIN.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Rams vs Vikings, 49ers vs Titans both this weekend. Vikings vs Packers next week & 49ers @ Rams to end season. Eagles got 3 remaining games against each team in division. Cards are going to make playoffs. The big question is it as division winner or bottom seed barely running on fumes just happy to show up.

It’s looking likely to Rams/Cards matchup in first round unless one of them gets the 3rd seed.

 

[TheCardinal]

As for the NFC West race, the one scenario where the Rams can win the tie-breaker over us is still in play.


Essentially, if the Cards/Rams get through next week still tied (both win or both lose), then we CANNOT clinch the division the following week even if we build a one-game advantage (with a win over Dallas and a Rams loss to Baltimore). That sets up the only scenario where the Rams could beat us in a tie-breaker where they then beat SF and we lose to SEA to finish with the same record.

 

[TheCardinal]

49ers lose to the Titans; they can no longer win the NFC West.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are extremely close to clinching a playoff spot. We would need any ONE of the following:

a) any ARI win/tie
b) any PHI loss/tie
c) any MIN loss/tie
d) any NO loss/tie
e) losses by LAR in the final two games (BAL/SF)

 

[TheCardinal]

Well, you know the drill. . .

If either the Vikings or Eagles lose (or tie) Sunday, we back-in to the playoffs. Same if the Saints lose (or tie) on Monday. Any one of those three gets us in.

A few more specifics on the NFC West race:

If Rams beat MIN: we clinch at least a wildcard, though the Rams take a one-game lead in the West. However, we will have clinched tie-breakers over the Rams in all potential tied scenarios.

If Rams lose to MIN: Cards and Rams tied at 10-5. We could still lose tie-breakers but ONLY if we both go 11-6 AND our win is against Dallas AND their loss is to BAL. Any other tied scenario and we win the West.

 

[TheCardinal]

With the loss to the Colts, we actually have a better chance of beating the Bucs in a tie-breaker. The trick will be to first win the division and then to catch TB in the win column.

Mathematically, we can still get the 1-seed, though it is laughably unlikely. Would need to have a 3-way tie with GB and TB, where TB’s loss is to the Jets, and for us to make up a massive deficit in the strength of victory tie-breaker. And also Dallas can’t get to 12 wins.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

10-7 here we come