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CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JANUARY 10: Ben Johnson of the Chicago Bears smiles prior to an NFL wild card playoff football game against the Green Bay Packers at Solider Field on January 10, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Last week, we brought you the data that the Chicago Bears had the sixth hardest strength of schedule (SOS) in the National Football League when applying the 2026 betting lines for the over/under team wins. It’s a newer way to look at SOS, but it’s not the most common that fans think of. The traditional method is to calculate the 2025 winning percentages of all the teams on the 2026 schedule and rank them accordingly.
Using that method, the Chicago Bears have the NFL’s toughest SOS by facing opponents who played .550 ball a seaosn ago.
The Bears’ first-place schedule obviously plays a part in that, as they face three more teams that finished first in their respective divisions, in addition to their normal divisional rotation.
Having the toughest SOS is surely a daunting task for the Bears to overcome in 2026, but did you know that last year, with the Bears coming off a last-place schedule, they faced the second-toughest SOS in the NFL?
One year ago, Ben Johnson’s team was staring at a slate of teams coming off a winning percentage of .571 (second-highest).
But that’s even tougher than this year’s schedule strength!
Oh no!
They’ll never be able to overcome the predictive nature of the math!
Teams with the toughest SOS, like the Bears, do this year (.550), have regressed by an average of four games since 2021.
You can’t fight the statistical regression!
The 2026 season is doomed!
If only there were some recent precedent showing a team facing a hard schedule (like maybe .571) bucking the odds to improve.
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