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Playoff Odds Offer Glimmer Of Hope For Red Sox After Blue Jays Sweep originally appeared on NESN. Add NESN as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The Boston Red Sox fell further down the American League standings by losing all three games to the Toronto Blue Jays. While their playoff aspirations are standing on thin ice following the home sweep, a projection model suggests they shouldn't raise the white flag either.
Boston is last in the American League East at 29-43, and only the Los Angeles Angels trail them in the AL's wild-card standings. Yet the Red Sox remain 6.5 games away from the league's final playoff spot, which the Blue Jays and Athletics currently share at 37-38.
A wide-open playoff picture leaves hope for the Red Sox and just about every MLB team to make a run this summer. FanGraphs still gives the Red Sox a 9.7 percent chance to make the postseason.
Of course, Boston still faces an uphill climb to play October baseball. The Kansas City Royals (4.9%) and Angels (0.4%) are the only AL teams with a lower probability of reaching the playoffs, and the Detroit Tigers (15.5%) are the only other club below 23 percent.
Already trailing the New York Yankees by 15.5 games, the Red Sox have a minuscule 0.1 percent chance of winning the division. They're projected to finish the season with 75.4 wins, the lowest estimation in the AL East.
FanGraphs doesn't project increased parity to yield an out-of-the-blue champion. At 0.6 percent, the Red Sox are one of 19 teams with less than a 2 percent chance of winning the World Series.
The season isn't over, but the Red Sox are running out of time to make up lost ground. They'll try to begin their climb up the standings when they begin a three-game road series against the Seattle Mariners on Friday.
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