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A baby craps table is seen at the Four Queens on Friday, May 31, 2024, in Las Vegas. (Madeline Carter/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
We welcomed
The lines
- D-backs Wins: 80.5 (2070-1200) – 90, OVER
- Lovullo ejections: 2.5 (1490-0) – 0, UNDER
- MLB Debuts: 4.5 (2500-0) – 9, OVER
Steady as the team goes for wins: fifteen at the first check-in, fifteen since then. But the kinder, gentler Torey continues, probably courtesy of ABS, meaning there’s no longer a reason to bitch about balls and strikes. Some managers will still find a way: there have been 34 so far in 2026. But there were 174 in the regular season last year, so pace is about forty percent down this year. Debuts is also looking good for the over, with Ryan Waldschmidt and Tommy Troy joining Jose Fernandez as the players to reach the Big Show for Arizona so far. Only two more needed, and this will be locked in as a win.
- Carroll Hits – 138.5 (850-0) – 165, OVER
- Carroll SB – 33.5 (900-0) – 21, UNDER
- Carroll HR – 22.5 (1200-600) – 21, UNDER
- Carroll RBI – 80.5 (0-0) – 84, OVER
- Carroll Runs – 100.5 (600-0) – 102, OVER
No change in any of the actual lines, but some have moved closer to, or further away, from the line. The pace for hits has increased from 150, and homers has crept up from 18 to 21. On the other hand, SB have dropped from 24 to 21, and RBI is now only barely over the line, having dropped from 102. Runs? Completely unchanged. Like the win tally, Carroll crossed home-plate the same number of times on the first lap, as the second. His value so far sits at 2.8 bWAR, good for 6th among position players in the NL (if you combine Ohtani’s value on the mound). fWAR has him at 2.7 wins – but that leads all position players. Not bad at all, I’d say.
- Marte Hits – 139.5 (390-0) – 168, OVER
- Marte HR – 27.5 (300-900), 27, UNDER
- Marte RBI – 79.5 (250-300), 96, OVER
- Marte BA – .280 (600-300), .273, UNDER
- Marte Runs – 89.5 (0-0), 102, OVER
Ketel is back, in no uncertain form. It hasn’t made much of a difference to the lines so far. Having driven in 22 runs in the last 27 games, RBI is now above the line. But from the house’s viewpoint, that doesn’t make much difference, since betting was close to even on that wager. HR and BA, which were bereft and adrift after 27 games (Marte’s average was just .238 at that point), are now closing in on going from under to over. Bit of a mixed blessing for the SnakePit Casino: if both move, that’ll give us about S$300 more profit. More importantly, a hot Ketel = a hot Diamondbacks. So long may it continue!
- Perdomo HR – 17.5 (1200-600) – 6, UNDER
- Perdomo RBI – 68.5 (2400-0) – 57, UNDER
- Perdomo BA – .275 (1500-0) – .220, UNDER
- Perdomo Runs – 80.5 (900-0) – 66, UNDER
The Perdomo perplexity persists. These are the kind of numbers we might have expected from him before his MVP caliber campaign in 2025. For example, Gerry had six home-runs and drove in 47 in 2023. But even there, he batted .246. He has hit just .194 on this lap, though has still been getting more walks (18) than he has strikeouts (15). Bases on balls are not lines, unfortunately. Home-runs are, however, and Perdomo needs to hit sixteen of them over the remaining 108 games for that to hit the over. Based on last year, that would still be perfectly plausible. It is not last year, and having hit just two HR thus far, the omens are not good.
- Kelly Wins – 10.5 (450-750) – 15, OVER
- Gallen Wins – 11.5 (850-600) – 9, UNDER
- Gallen K’s – 170.5 (0-150), 120, UNDER
- Pfaadt Wins – 10 (1200-300), 0, UNDER
- Saves leader: 14.5 (1050-1800), 39, OVER
The pitching staff has certainly turned things around, being one of the best outfits in baseball for the month of May. Going into play yesterday, they have collectively put up a 2.89 ERA, third-best in the majors. Been a long time since you can say that. However, the only change this has made is to push Merrill Kelly over, having picked up four wins since we last checked in. Zac Gallen continues to underwhelm, although he has won his last pair of outings, and Brandon Pfaadt remains in the bullpen. Paul Sewald continues to sprint for the line, and after the save yesterday (not included above), just needs one more before A.J. Puk returns, to lock in the over. That is looking pretty good with Puk looking at a mid-June return.
The standings
To summarize the above, there have been two changes in lines since we checked a month or so ago. The pace for Marte RBI and Kelly Wins have both gone from Under to Over. Those changes have proven particularly devastating to Diamondhacks, who had bet the Under on both those lines. Consequently, he slumps from -300 to the maximum possible loss of -1,500 and last place in the standings. Ask and ye shall receive, ‘Hacks:
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Here are the full standings.
- Xerostomia 1000
- smurf1000 900
- Hannibal4467 900
- Imstillhungry95 300
- EdTR99 300
- Sirhute 300
- RickDD 0
- 1AZfan1 -300
- joecb1991 -300
- justin27 -300
- ercil -580
- Mike Verr -600
- BTBaseball -600
- Snake_Bitten -900
- Sighborg -900
- Makakilo -900
- DbacksEurope -900
- gzimmerm -900
- Diamondhacks -1500
Previous leaders Smurf1000 and Hannibal4467 did not trouble themselves with the two lines which changed, so remain at +900. However, they are overtaken by Xerostomia, who took advantage of Marte’s surge to profit from the over there, jumping up from +500 to take over the lead at +1000. But overall, the house is now slightly further ahead than it was, the edge currently going to the SnakePit Casino by S$4,980, which is up by 780 SnakePit Dollars from last time. Next update will follow in late June, when we may well have our first lines signed, sealed and delivered!
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