OT: Kyler Murray Debacle Thread
- Thread starter Weenus O'Baggins
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OP
OP
This is an outrageous burn and I won't stand for it
OP
OP
Nope the owner said to stay home and he said sure.
SoonerLou
ASFN Addict
Dante Moore would be getting bust talk.
Ty Simpson would be getting can he be saved by the next coach talk.
Scary if the Cards keep JG.
602 Native
ASFN Addict
Dear lord
WisconsinCard
Herfin BIg Time
Don't you fall into both of these? So you might have just said I'm atrocious and I deserve this.
SECTION 11
vibraslap
I think we’ve all done our part here.Don't you fall into both of these? So you might have just said I'm atrocious and I deserve this.
And what an absolute waste of time it was.
WisconsinCard
Herfin BIg Time
It's been entertaining to say the least. Worst part for me is I drug the whole family into this mess.
This year not so much.
punchoutnd
Newbie
That idea really doesn’t hold up historically.
Draft position matters for opportunity, not talent. Plenty of great QBs were taken outside the top 3 — or even outside the first round entirely — and turned into franchise guys.Just a few examples:
- Tom Brady – 6th round
- Joe Montana – 3rd round
- Brett Favre – 2nd round
- Drew Brees – 2nd round
- Aaron Rodgers – late 1st, passed over by a lot of teams
- Russell Wilson – 3rd round
- Dak Prescott – 4th round
- Kirk Cousins – 4th round
- Jalen Hurts – 2nd round
- Brock Purdy – literally the last pick of the draft
QB success is way more about development, coaching, fit, and patience than draft slot. Being taken early just means a team hopes you’re good — it doesn’t guarantee anything. And being taken later doesn’t cap a player’s ceiling.
If drafting outside the top 3 meant “no good,” the NFL record books would look very different.
what's the percentage of successful quarterbacks drafted by round? everybody touts the same list of non first round qbs but honestly to me it shows the rarity of scoring a qb in the later rounds - if we're gambling on our future i want the best odds
Wow that Tom Brady fella was in the 6th round, had no idea!!!!!11!!!1!
What's their career starts in college? Did they start in the NFL immediately?
Any pick is a crapshoot, and QB even more so,but higher rounds is just higher odds, not guaranteed
There was a video/interview Brady earlier in the season and said they don't really develop QB's in the NFL anymore (perhaps don't know how?) This was in regards to Caleb Williams, OC's, and leashes, but applied overall.
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OP
OP
Google AI says "solid starter"
Round 1 38%
Round 2 15.6%
Round 3 13%
Round 4 8%
Round 5-7 3%
Now that isn't a pro bowl level player. That is just someone who starts for a few years.
To get to that you are:
Top 5 pick: 61.2%
Top 10 pick: 56%
Picks 11 - 32 44.2%
QBs outside of round 1 13.3%
And to paint that into further perspective, Murray would be considered a "Hit" so to get to really elite the numbers would taper off incredibly.
The problem with this theory is nobody is in desperate need of a Qb ( like we are) and can afford to wait until the 6th round.
Purdy would have been run out of Arizona by now playing for this lame organization. Take a look at all the Qb’s mention. What do they have in common?
Winning organizations.
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
Why do people keep doing this? It’s obviously wrong. Cmon.
OP
OP
Because you should use AI whenever possible if you intend to stay in any white collar job.
OP
OP
It did provide a range on that data as it is pulling from several sources. I just pulled the lower end and stayed consistent with it.
Why? Use it, sure. But also, check the results as often as possible.
AI results, while super fast, are as reliable as a kid right out of school.
OP
OP
This seems to be the primary source though
www.bigblueview.com
That’s 19 out of 49 drafted quarterbacks currently in the ‘solid starter’ or above category, a hit rate of 38.8%. If you are looking for Hall of Fame or absolute franchise quarterback as your standard, that’s 12 of 49, or 24.5%. Take out the five incompletes, those percentages are 44.1 and 27.2.
The disappointments category has 18 names or 36.7%. Combine that with the seven quarterbacks in the ‘low-end’ category and that is 51% who did not or have not yet given teams what they hoped to get out of a first-round quarterback.
How successful are quarterbacks drafted in Round 1?
Here are the numbers since 2010, and they are not encouraging
www.bigblueview.com
That’s 19 out of 49 drafted quarterbacks currently in the ‘solid starter’ or above category, a hit rate of 38.8%. If you are looking for Hall of Fame or absolute franchise quarterback as your standard, that’s 12 of 49, or 24.5%. Take out the five incompletes, those percentages are 44.1 and 27.2.
The disappointments category has 18 names or 36.7%. Combine that with the seven quarterbacks in the ‘low-end’ category and that is 51% who did not or have not yet given teams what they hoped to get out of a first-round quarterback.
OP
OP
If you use Google AI, the various sources are next to the output.
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
Do you really believe. That it’s a better than one in ten shot you get a guy who is going to start for “at least a few years” in the third round of the draft?
Buddy. Let’s not just copy and paste garbage here.
OP
OP
Well it is probably due to the low volume of QBs drafted in round 3
I feel like message board “etiquette” calls for me to point out that few really wear white collars anymore.
:BIM:
:BIM:
OP
OP
AI went back pretty far but I just went to 2010 and only one QB was drafted, Colt McCoy, who started 36 games. So that one hit will skew many years of data
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