NFL Draft Picks by Long-Term and Surplus Value (Nerd Post)

[cardinals2025]

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This guy always makes great videos. Basically the teams at the top are rolling the dice correctly in terms of risk/reward and the cost difference between the picks made and how much they would cost in FA. Its more complicated than that, but he breaks down why SEA drafting Zabel could have been a bad decision if he can’t switch to Tackle. (15 minute mark)

Part showing the charts below start around (16:20)

Just found this interesting that we got something possibly showing we are drafting correctly for the long term.

 

[BACH]

The wideleft.com website does extensive analysis of draft value as well. Measures perceived value of the player, value of the position vs. slot picked. Super interesting and nerdy. The biggest flaw is that foundation of the dataset is the consensus board, which isn't exactly exact science