NFC West Thoughts

Mitch

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Arizona Cardinals:

In just his third season as GM, Steve Keim has built such a deep roster that not only are rookies no longer expected to come right in and start, one gets the sense that Keim and the coaches value every one of the current 90 players on the roster. In other words, if other players are to be added over the next few months, it is going to be difficult to let some of the current players go.

The real buzz coming out of the OTA's and mini-camp is the rejuvenation of QB Carson Palmer. Clearly, the coaches, the players and Palmer himself recognize that if he can stay healthy, the Cardinals are legitimate NFC West and Super Bowl contenders. Palmer has been rehabbing with a vengeance and a hunger that speaks of tremendous urgency and determination. This is a man on a mission and a team on a mission.

There was much talk this off-season about the Cardinals wanting to make a trade for RB Adrian Peterson or at least wanting to add a big power RB option who can pound the ball between the tackles the way the Seahawks do with Marshawn Lynch and 49ers have done with Frank Gore.

Curiously, after realizing that trading for Peterson would not be an option, the Cardinals opted to draft an all-purpose, versatile, finesse-type RB in David Johnson of Northern Iowa.

Adding Peterson most likely would have changed the whole dynamic of Bruce Arians' offense---which might have been a good thing---but yet it also might have not. Why? Because, while BA understands the importance of running the football, at the end of the day, he is a pass happy OC who believes it is important to get his QB in a rhythmic groove. Focusing too much on the run can detract from a QB's rhythm---just ask Kurt Warner.

Thus, when one looks beyond the fact that David Johnson is not a quintessential power RB---he is a perfect fit for BA's offense because of his versatility and his dual-threat capabilities.

Most importantly, Steve Keim has been doing two very significant things to turn the offense into a potential juggernaut---he has been building up a potentially formidable offensive line and he has been adding speed at the skill positions.

On defense, the talent and depth is impressive. First year DC, James Bettcher, appears to have the trust of the players---which he will be able to build on if he shows he can make the right calls and adjustments during the games.

With the talent and depth that Bettcher has been endowed with, he and his coaches should be able to create specialized roles for a number of players. For example, while Matt Shaughnessy likely won't start at 34DE, he could be a key inside rusher on passing downs. Same with Cory Redding, who can rush inside and outside.

Because of the depth in the secondary, Bettcher should be able to create quite a multi-dimensiola role for Tyrann Mathieu as one would expect him to line up at various spots in coverage and in blitz packages.

As for the return Daryl Washington---as long as a healthy Kevin Minter starts to thrive in his role as inside thumper on running downs and a revitalized Sean Weatherspoon emerges as the standout player and leader the coaches envisioned when they went after him in free agency, Washington won't be as sorely needed as some people think.

The Cardinals need a big bounce-back year on special teams---and it appears the message has been sent to the players and STC Amos Jones. It was symbolic of sorts, therefore, that Patrick Peterson was seen returning punts in mini-camp, as it appears BA plans to turn to Peterson when the team needs a big-time punt return.

St. Louis Rams:

On paper the Rams are now about as talented across the board as any team in the NFL. They are scary good on defense with All-Star caliber players in Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers, Robert Quinn, Alec Ogletree, Janoris Jenkins and T.J. McDonald. They added Nick Foles to be the QB who pushes them over the hump. Foles has size and talent, but he's recently taken some steps backward in production and there is a sense that hard charging defenses can rattle him.

The key for the Rams is how well and quickly they can assemble their offensive line wherein they expect to start two rookies in 2nd round tackle Rob Havenstein and 3rd round guard Jamon Brown.

While in the long run their selection of RB Todd Gurley at pick #10 in the 1st round could be dynamic, one has to wonder whether the Rams should have put the horses in front of the cart first as they passed on Ts Andrus Peat, Cedroc Ogbuehi, D.J. Humphries, Donovan Smith and Jake Fisher.

What the Rams have done is taken a number of college tackles who seem to project better in the NFL at guard---including previous draft picks Greg Robinson and Rodger Saffold. The same can be said about Havenstein and Brown. While these players should be solid opening holes in the running game, one has to wonder how well they will be able to protect Foles, particularly from the edges and from speed blitzers up the middle.

The other issue is Jeff Fisher's questionable clock management tendencies late in games on both sides of the ball. His defense can be dominating all game and then with the game on the line, Fisher backs them off into his prevent, and suddenly the aggressiveness that makes them so good is compromised, and they give up quick scores. On offense, Fisher has screwed up situations where with a 1 or 2 point lead all the offense has to do is take a knee for three plays and punt the ball back with under 30 seconds left inside the opponents' 20 yards line---with the opponents having to go 50 yards in 23 seconds with no timeouts left.

Eventually the Rams' talent should be able to make things much easier for Fisher. He gets his teams well prepared and they come ready to hit people week after week.

San Francisco 49ers:

This is going to be a team to be reckoned with, no matter what the pundits are saying about their apparent demise. While Jim Tomsula wasn't a sexy choice as head coach, this guy will have his team jacked up on game days in ways that his predecessor did not.

Plus, the pressure is off the 49ers, as few people expect them to win this year because of all the attrition and changes---which may work very well in their favor, because this should allow them to play loose and free.

Obviously, their success will depend a great deal on the improvement of QB Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick has been working very diligently this off-season for he knows his career is at a crossroads of sorts. The key will be how well Geep Chryst can retool the offensive line after the defection of All-Pro G Mike Iupati to Arizona and the sudden retirement of RT Anthony Davis. RBs Carlos Hyde and Reggie Bush form a nice thunder and lightning combo and the addition of WR Torrey Smith should improve a passing game that will continue to feature WR Anquan Boldin and TE Vernon Davis.

But, if the line struggles, it could mean that Kaepernick will flush out of the pocket quicker than ever which at times he can capitalize on with his prolific running ability, while at others could lead to punishing hits and hurried throws.

On defense, there are numerous question marks following the retirements of DE Justin Smith and LBs Patrick Willis and Chris Borland. The interior of their defense will need to be shored up by Darnell Dockett, Glenn Dorsey and Arik Armstead/Quinton Dial---LB Navarro Bowman needs to return to form and LB Michael Wilhote needs to remain solid, if this team is going to be able to stop the run. In the secondary, the CBs Tremaine Brock and Shareece Wright are smallish ballhawks, while Ss Antoine Bethea and Eric Reid are big hitters who struggle at times in coverage. Reid has said he too considered retirement because of concussion issues. However, if Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks can be the tandem they were two years ago on the edges, it should make the pass defense effective.

Seattle Seahawks:

It appears the Seahawks are going to make QB Russell Wilson play out his 3rd round rookie contract---and suddenly this feel-good Cinderella story is now hinting at bad karma. Unquestionably, the Seahawks got the steal of this century when they drafted Wilson in the 3rd round and inserted him as their starting QB to find that he has outstanding improv skills and uncanny ice water in his veins under pressure.

However, Wilson got bailed out of an uncharacteristically poor showing in Green Bay (5 TOs), thanks to a near miraculous set of errors on the Packers' part...and then Pete Carroll, in insisting that Wilson be the Super Bowl MVP, calls a pass play on 1st a goal from the 1 yard line that Malcolm Butler reads perfectly and picks off...and Wilson suddenly looks more human than ever.

Now the Seahawks ironically re-sign RB Marshawn Lynch to a 3 year $31M deal---the player who should have gotten the 1st and goal at the 1 yard line call and MVP with it---and yet they are stringing Wilson out and want him to continue to be the ultimate bargain.

Wilson and his agent appear miffed and with good reason. Meanwhile, will Lynch be able to withstand another year of Beast Mode poundings? Yes, they traded for All-Pro TE/WR Jimmy Graham, but at the expense of weakening what has already become a weakened offensive line when they traded All-Pro center Max Unger to get Graham.

On defense the talent remains elite---although one has to wonder in light of how beat up the defense was sown the stretch last year how well they will be able to continue to hold up after what has been three years of deep playoff runs to the tune of 18, 19 and 19 games (56 games). Kris Richard takes over as DC for Dan Quinn---which with Pete Carroll as head coach should be a relatively smooth transition. But it will be interesting to see how well this defense will hold up physically. The DTs Tony McDaniel and Brandon Mebane are now past their primes, DE Michael Bennett feel he is being short-shrifted by the FO and ILB Bobby Wagner needs to play all 16 games, as he is a key. Moreover, UFA CB Cary Williams will need to hold up in place of Byron Maxwell.
 

AZCrazy

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Nice write up. Thanks for the work.

Regarding the quarterbacks, I think a case could be made for Carson Palmer being the leagues MVP. Not necessarily as the 'best' player, but certainly the most valuable. If he can hold together, our depth will make us a top team this year.

Kaepernicks true self will show this year. With his roster becoming undone, he will either rise to the occasion and maturity and intelligence will win out, or he will become a petulant kid and the blame game will start heating up and become toxic by the end of the year.

Foles to the Rams will be a nice upgrade for them, but that team can't seem to fire on all cylinders at the same time. Their D is remarkable but now their O line is likely going to struggle and Foles isn't exactly beefy.

The Seahawks are walking a tightrope right now with Wilson. A lot of noise will be made this year about his supposed bitterness and being disrespected by being made to still play on his relatively miniscule original contract. I don't think the Hawks are disrespecting him at all, but just trying to remain relevant and win in this current window. Sure, they could bid against themselves and give Wilson $18 million per year for no reason, but it would cost them two other superstars to do so. When he gets paid, the team will necessarily regress toward the mean and have to strike gold with other rookies to still lead the pack.
 

Snakester

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Nice write up Mitch. I think we will take the division if Palmer stays healthy. I see it finishing like this.
Cards 12-4
Hags. 11-5
Rams. 9-7
49ers. 8-8
The Hags have been lucky staying healthy. I think it's their turn for some bad luck.
I think this is the year the Rams take a step forward. Nick Foles should give them stability at QB to go with two very good running backs. Their defense is just scary good. All the pieces are coming together for them.
Although the 49ers still have a lot of good players still, you don't lose a coach as good as Harbaugh as well as all those players and keep winning. I feel at best they are a 500 team.

As for our Cards I think we take a step forward on offense. We can beat anybody with Palmer. Our depth is solid across the board and bringing in David Johnson and Mike Iupoti to me is huge for our running game.
 

Ronin

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Down year for the 49ers, but I don't think it's going to be that bad as the experts make it out to be....That's if the o-line and d-line play decent for the year. I'm excited to see how the zone blocking scheme will look.
 

LoyaltyisaCurse

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I trust Minter to be as mediocre as ever... We will continue to sorely miss DWaste whether he deserves to return to the team or not. He is they key to our defense being truly elite and has cost this team dearly. What a jackass he's been.
 

LoyaltyisaCurse

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Down year for the 49ers, but I don't think it's going to be that bad as the experts make it out to be....That's if the o-line and d-line play decent for the year. I'm excited to see how the zone blocking scheme will look.

Floor 4 wins; ceiling 7 wins... Accept it, they're going struggle at least the next 2 seasons...

Your owner is a lot like the Warriors former owner, Chris Cohan (I'm a Warriors fan). If ownership stinks it permeates the team.
 

Dude

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That was well done Mitch. Don't have anything to add. Great read.
 

TJ

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Counting on Minter being anything more than a special teams guy at this point is like counting on Phoenix getting snow in July. He's just not a talented NFL linebacker.

Even his apex is a two-down run stuffer who's a liability in pass protection. Washington has been sorely missed, particularly against athletic quarterbacks. Think Minter at his best can run sideline-to-sideline with those guys? The sooner Washington returns, the better.
 

Jetstream Green

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Our defense still has me concerned. We have a DC who has never been a DC I believe and is now going to be one on the NFL level. Dan Williams is gone, can we plug the middle as good as he was able to do. Minter will be the same disappointment to me but I think Weatherspoon will stay healthy and we will find probably an ex Steeler managing the position after Minter cannot. My big fear is this, Peterson gets hurt and has to miss some time. Powers is a stud nickel corner and Bethel is a great special teamer but how the hell are we going to split between the two and expect good coverage if one has to be the number one. That is the nightmare scenario not many people are talking about. If Palmer or Peterson goes down, we are screwed in my opinion. Many fans would be begging for the 'overrated' CB with the 21 on the jersey if he had to miss significant time... we need to sign a veteran corner :)
 

Harry

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I expect the Niners and the Rams to lose several games early trying to put the pieces together. I'm not a big Foles fan, but he's still an upgrade. The Rams D is solid, so I think 8-8 or 9-7. The Niners have too many holes on defense, but a softer schedule should keep them near 8-8. They'll have a tough time winning games in the West.

The Seahawks still look like the team to beat. They've got the assets to cover their loses and they will be tougher in the Red Zone. They should win 11 or 12.

I like the Cards but you can't win the West blitzing 50% of the time. Cards will be better on offense if they don't let Palmer get killed. They figure to win 9-11 games. Beating the Seahawks will be tough especially if the Cards can't figure how to cover tight ends.

This is still the best NFL division.
 

football karma

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Very curious to see how Nick Foles plays.

He just wasn't very good last year - and how often do you see an organization give up on a young, affordable QB who started a bunch of games and presumably has upside.
 

Buckybird

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Very curious to see how Nick Foles plays.

He just wasn't very good last year - and how often do you see an organization give up on a young, affordable QB who started a bunch of games and presumably has upside.

You mean the crazy HC who gave away all his offensive playmakers including Foles & McCoy then gave a boatload of $$$ for Murray?

Considering Bradford can't stay healthy, I'd say the Lambs are in a better position to compete in the long run.
 

Buckybird

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I expect the Niners and the Rams to lose several games early trying to put the pieces together. I'm not a big Foles fan, but he's still an upgrade. The Rams D is solid, so I think 8-8 or 9-7. The Niners have too many holes on defense, but a softer schedule should keep them near 8-8. They'll have a tough time winning games in the West.

The Seahawks still look like the team to beat. They've got the assets to cover their loses and they will be tougher in the Red Zone. They should win 11 or 12.

I like the Cards but you can't win the West blitzing 50% of the time. Cards will be better on offense if they don't let Palmer get killed. They figure to win 9-11 games. Beating the Seahawks will be tough especially if the Cards can't figure how to cover tight ends.

This is still the best NFL division.

Well said Harry. I think the Cards O will be explosive with another RB in the mix & a healthy CP. My question is like Mitch said, can Bettcher come up with the formula on defense despite zero DC experience.
 

82CardsGrad

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Counting on Minter being anything more than a special teams guy at this point is like counting on Phoenix getting snow in July. He's just not a talented NFL linebacker.

Even his apex is a two-down run stuffer who's a liability in pass protection. Washington has been sorely missed, particularly against athletic quarterbacks. Think Minter at his best can run sideline-to-sideline with those guys? The sooner Washington returns, the better.


Totally agree!

Also, regarding Palmer and the offense... Mitch, your points about AP and the drafting of Johnson are spot on. In fact, the focus on speed and versatility is so great such that BA had the offense running the No-Huddle for a large portion of OTA's and Mini-Camo! Clearly, if the Cards due take the next step and progress thru the playoffs, it will not be with an offense that features a Lynch-type RB... They will do it their way... The BA way... Which I'm very cool with!!
 

don7031

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Jim Haubaugh lost the Niners' locker room last year. The Niners may have made a humongous mistake by not going outside of the organization for a totally new coaching staff. The personnel losses pale in significance if their locker room is poisoned.

Take the indomitable Russell Wilson off Seattle and they are a 4-12 team. Outside of Wilson they have three high quality players on offense (Okung, Lynch and Graham) and diddly squat. They should have been trading for another Pro-Bowl level offensive lineman instead of sending one packing.

Over the last two years the Rams have hit the reset button on their offensive line and traded for an enigma at quarterback. I'd make a season prediction for the Rams, but I never called Dionne Warwick so I'm not a member of the Psychic Friends Network.

IMO, the Cardinals, Niners and Seahawks have all taken a step back.
 

Brak

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Niners, 4-12. MAYBE 5-11, tops. MARK IT!
 

Russ Smith

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I think the big risk Seattle has is Marshawn Lynch. NOt only is his health an issue, the back isn't going to magically get better, but they have to deal with him not being happy the way the Super Bowl ended.

Probably the best way to use him is limit his carries a bit so he rests the back and lasts the season, the problem is he would HATE that, he doesn't want to be a part time player. It's a real dilemma for them IMO.

Not sold on Foles, I suspect he looked better in Philly than he really was and that once they started losing some of those key pieces to injury or because they were let go(DeSean Jackson) his holes started to show up. Rams have talent but unless Gurley is ready to go early on they're going to need Foles to do more than I think he's capable of.
 

Cbus cardsfan

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I think the big risk Seattle has is Marshawn Lynch. NOt only is his health an issue, the back isn't going to magically get better, but they have to deal with him not being happy the way the Super Bowl ended.

Probably the best way to use him is limit his carries a bit so he rests the back and lasts the season, the problem is he would HATE that, he doesn't want to be a part time player. It's a real dilemma for them IMO.

Not sold on Foles, I suspect he looked better in Philly than he really was and that once they started losing some of those key pieces to injury or because they were let go(DeSean Jackson) his holes started to show up. Rams have talent but unless Gurley is ready to go early on they're going to need Foles to do more than I think he's capable of.
I was going to post something similar on Lynch. He reportedly almost retired after last season because of his back. I also think their OL is not going to be as good and they'll have underestimated the loss of Unger. I still don't see Jimmy Graham as a good fit in that offense and he has health concerns as well.

Seattle is still going to be good but a couple of fluke plays in the NFC Championship has covered up the atrocity that was Russell Wilson playing QB that day.

Arizona 11-5
Seattle 9-7
LA Rams 9-7
SF 6-10
 
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Krangodnzr

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Seattle is still going to be good but a couple of fluke plays in the NFC Championship has covered up the atrocity that was Russell Wilson playing QB that day.

I know a lot of people are shocked that the Seahawks aren't in a hurry to pay Russell Wilson, but I think there is legitimate concern on whether Russell Wilson will ever truly be a top ten QB.

Sure he wins and is a great runner when plays break down, but the parts of his game that are unique to the QB position (ie standing in the pocket and making plays with his arm) are severely lacking.

One of these years Marshawn Lynch is going to retire and it's going to expose just how average Russell Wilson is. He wins by making timely plays and leaning on Lynch and that defense. Remove Lynch or bring down the defense closer to league average and I think we start to see more of the average game manager that Wilson really is.

I hope the Seahawks pay Wilson like he is the top QB in the league, and it causes a cascade effect on their roster. Outside of early successes like Wilson, Sherman, and Wagner, the Seahawks have not drafted well lately and I would love to see the team have to rely on the draft to fill holes.
 

WildBB

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I expect the Niners and the Rams to lose several games early trying to put the pieces together. I'm not a big Foles fan, but he's still an upgrade. The Rams D is solid, so I think 8-8 or 9-7. The Niners have too many holes on defense, but a softer schedule should keep them near 8-8. They'll have a tough time winning games in the West.

The Seahawks still look like the team to beat. They've got the assets to cover their loses and they will be tougher in the Red Zone. They should win 11 or 12.

I like the Cards but you can't win the West blitzing 50% of the time. Cards will be better on offense if they don't let Palmer get killed. They figure to win 9-11 games. Beating the Seahawks will be tough especially if the Cards can't figure how to cover tight ends.

This is still the best NFL division.

Still the best, yes. But the Packers may be the best team.

We should be able to take one from Seattle this year, who knows if Palmer can stay healthy, it makes a big difference. We get them earlier this season, right?

We certainly have the talent and the staff to give them everything and more.
 
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