NCAA baseball tournament bracket projections, national seeds after Week 11

[ASFN Admin]

A little less than one month from selection Monday, the NCAA baseball tournament bubble is starting to take shape.

Projected at the top are season-long stalwarts like UCLA and Georgia Tech. However, several bubble teams could serve as litmus tests for what the committee values.

Would the committee put in a team that is below .500 in Sun Belt play but has a strong RPI, like Texas State or Arkansas State? What about a traditional SEC powerhouse with good conference performances but a poor RPI, such as Vanderbilt? Or a Kentucky team with a better RPI but six straight series losses, including to three conference bottom-feeders?

With a 10-11 conference record and No. 69 RPI, the Commodores currently are projected as the first team out, but a series win over Alabama April 30-May 2 likely would move them into the field. No team with an above-.500 SEC record has ever been left out of a regional.

Kentucky is also projected out despite a No. 39 RPI due to its 9-12 SEC record and series losses to Missouri, South Carolina and LSU. The Tigers, the defending national champions, aren't anywhere near the field after a nine-game SEC losing streak.

There is also some intrigue with the final host spots. Alabama (No. 7) and Southern Cal (No. 9) have top-10 RPIs, but those teams were left out of hosting in this projection — Alabama due to having a below .500 SEC record and the Trojans due to being 0-8 in Quadrant 1 games, and getting swept by UCLA and Nebraska.

These projections are done as if the season ended today. The 2-seeds were seeded and bracketed in groups of four to maintain geography and avoid same-conference matchups, while the 3- and 4-seeds were bracketed based primarily on geography and conference affiliation. Automatic bids were selected based on each conference's current leader, with RPI used as a tiebreaker.

Last four in: UAB, NC State, Texas State, Virginia Tech

First four out: Vanderbilt, Kentucky, UTSA, Arkansas State

2026 NCAA baseball tournament projections​

*Denotes automatic bid

Los Angeles Regional​

(1) UCLA*

(32) Oklahoma State

Gonzaga*

Cal Poly*

Tallahassee Regional​

(16) Florida State

(18) Alabama

UAB

Bethune Cookman*

Auburn Regional​

(8) Auburn

(27) West Virginia

Pittsburgh

Binghamton*

Oxford Regional​

(9) Ole Miss

(24) Boston College

Saint Joseph's*

Bucknell*

Austin Regional​

(4) Texas

(29) East Carolina

TCU

Tarleton State*

Starkville Regional​

(13) Mississippi State

(20) Cincinnati

Liberty

Murray State*

Chapel Hill Regional​

(5) North Carolina

(28) Tennessee

High Point*

Campbell*

Lincoln Regional​

(12) Nebraska

(21) Virginia

Southeast Missouri State*

Oral Roberts*

College Station Regional​

(3) Texas A&M

(30) Miami

Texas State

Southeastern Louisiana*

Conway Regional​

(14) Coastal Carolina*

(19) Oklahoma

NC State

Rider*

Corvallis Regional​

(6) Oregon State

(25) Oregon

UC Santa Barbara

Nevada*

Lawrence Regional​

(11) Kansas

(22) Missouri State

Virginia Tech

Creighton*

Athens Regional​

(7) Georgia*

(26) UCF

Jacksonville State*

Penn*

Hattiesburg Regional​

(10) Southern Miss

(23) Wake Forest

Miami-Ohio*

Fairleigh Dickinson*

Atlanta Regional​

(2) Georgia Tech*

(31) Arkansas

Western Carolina*

North Florida*

Gainesville Regional​

(15) Florida

(17) Southern Cal

Arizona State

Wright State*

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at [email protected] or on X @aria_gerson.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: NCAA baseball tournament bracket projections after Week 11

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