cheesebeef said:
Man - if the top 6 QB's in the league(Manning, Brady, Favre, Culpepper, McNabb, Pennington) weren't successful right off the bat in their first(Culpepper) or second years(everyone else) - you might have an argument there. Hell - I could throw Marc Bulger and Trent Green in there as well and even Mike Vick . . . and even then looking back on the past - I could throw Drew Bledsoe, Dan Marino, John Elway and Joe Montana in there - but why continue - you already ignored the previous debunking of this flawed theory last week.
The best QB's in the game get the game by the time they start their second season - or at least begin their 3rd.
I'm not sure what it is you are trying to prove here.
Payton Manning... No. 1 pick in 1998 draft.
1998 - Team Record = 3 wins, 13 losses Set a number of Rookie QB records...passes(575), completions(326), and yards(3,739) He was sacked 22 times. BTW his completion rate was 56.7%
"In his first 9 starts, Manning appeared indecisive and forced some throws. The result was 12 touchdown passes and 18 interceptions. But in his final 7 games, he made better decisions and quit forcing the action. The result: 14 TD's and 10 int's." -- Sporting New Football annual, 1999
He also had the luxury of Marshall Faulk in the backfield, and a decent offensive line, and oh by the way.....Marvin Harrison.
The offensive scheme, under Tom Moore, he played under was one that utilized short drops, keeping most of the offensive options involved, which he fit comfortably with.
1999 - Team Record = 13 wins, 3 losses. Manning picked up his game even a notch more. QB rating 90.7. 26 TD passes. 4, 135 yds passsing. Cut ints to 15.
Rookie Edgerrin James filled in for the departed Faulk nicely.
2000 - Team Record 10-6. Lost wild card game to Miami. Set team record 4.413 passing yards and 33 TD's breaking Johnny Unita's club record.
Tom Brady..... 6th round, 2000
2000 - wasn't even listed on preseason roster for 2001 and those not enamored with Bledsoe were generally clamoring for Michael Bishop to be his replacement.
Brady played one game, threw 3 passes, completing one for 6 yards and a QB rating of 42.4.
2001 - T eam Record = 11 wins, 5 losses. Super Bowl champs. Bledsoe started the first 2 games, and never played again. Brady took over from there.
He also had the good fortune to have Bill Belichick as HC and Charley Weiss as OC. New England's offense was primarily based on a power running game with short, quick conservative passing game.
Brett Favre...Aquired in trade with Atlanta 1992 for a 1st Round draft pick. Originally drafted 2nd round by Atlanta Falcons, 1991
1991 - played in 2 games, 5 pass attempts, 0 completions, 2 interceptions. QB rating = 0
1992- played under new Packers HC Mike Holmgren. Got his first start in game 3 after Don Majkowski was hurt.
The 1993 sporting news football annual: "A year in Holmgren's system should make Favrea better QB and prevent the wrong formations he called and ill-advised passes he threw.
Dante Culpepper...1st Round 1999 (#11)
1999 - Played in 1 game, 0 passes.
2000 - Team Record 11-5 , 1-1 in playoffs losing to Giants 41-0 Culpepper had a great year with a 98 rating.
2001 - Team Record 5-11, and the wheels fell off, Green got fired with 2 games remaining, although Culpepper himself, dropped off, playing only 11 games, still played OK, nothing to write home about.
Donovan McNabb ...1st Round 1999 (#2)
1999 - played in 12 games, started 6. 216 attempts/ 106 completed (49.1%). 8 TD, 7 Int. Rating 60.1
2000 - Team Record= 11wins, 5 losses, 1-1 in playoffs losing to the Giants 20-10. 58% completion rate, 21 TD, 13 ints, 77.8 Rating.
Chad Pennington....1st Round 2000 (#18)
2000 - played in 1 game, 5 passes, 2 completions for 67 yds. 1 TD.
2001 - played in 2 games, 20 passes, 10 completions for 92 yds, 1 TD
2002 - Played 15, started 12, 68.9 comp %, 22 TD, 6 ints, 104.2 rating. He didn't start until the 5th game of the season.
Marc Bulger - signed as free agent in 2001
2001 - did not play in any games
2002 - played and started in 7 games. 214 passes, 138 completed, 1826 yds, 14 TD, 6 int. 101.5 rating
2003 - 15 games. 22 TD, 22 int, 81.4 rating
Trent Green 8th Round 1993(Chargers); free agent Redskins 1995; Free agent Rams 1999; Traded to Chiefs in 2001.
1993 - did not play
1994 - did not play
1995 - did not play
1996 - did not play
1997 - played 1game, 1 pass, 0 comp. 39.6 rating (Redskins)
1998 - 15 games 14 starts, (Redskins), 54.6% completion rate. 23 TD, 11 int
1999 - did not play (Rams)
2000 - played in 8 started 5. 16 TD, 5 int. 60% completion, 101 rating
If you go back and check my posts the last 3 years you will see I have ALWAYS maintained that the "norm" or ideal situation is to work a young QB in gradually and not start on a regular basis until sometime into their 3rd year.
I maintained that all along with Josh. Go back and check (you and 11 seem good at that these days
)
The only QB on your initial list to start regularly their Rookie year was Payton Manning, and he blew away a lot of rookie records and is now already challenging some of Marino's marks. A classic case of the exception to the rule....which your list really is.....taking the prime QB's many of them 1st rounders and using them as your reference point. '
But even those top draftee's hardly ever played their 1st year and the ones that played their 2nd, usually didn't really hit their stride until their 3rd yr.
The only one that even comes close to making a case for a lower round drafted QB to have any success early in their career is Brady.
And...some of those QB's who did play much their 2nd year, often did it because the starter got hurt and there wasn't much choice in the matter.
Most coaches, if they can don't usually plan on a QB making a consistant impact until their 3rd year AS THE NORM.
There will always be the exception. Especially if you start citing hall of fame QB's like Marino, Montana, Elway, and soon to be Favre, etc.
These guys are uniquely talented individuals, even for the pro game.
Pennington is what I would call the "model" situation. He wasn't rushed into the starting job right away, but allowed to develop, not starting until the 5th game of his 3rd year.
And Trent Green?
You evidently missed a little homework. He never played in a game until his 5th year, and then he only played in 1 game and threw 1 pass.
On the other side of the coin look at some of the recent high drafted QB's who have been rushed into starting "too soon".
Kyle Boller
Carson Palmer
Drew Brees
Akili Smith
Tim Couch
Chris Weinke...was old to begin with
Joey Harrington....started but left a lot to be desired and showed he needed more time to develop
David Carr..started his rookie year, but didn't exactly set the world on fire
Byron Leftwich..same same
And again these guys were the "cream of the crop", high draft picks.
Certainly not lower round picks who suddenly became NFL stars.
The list goes on and on....so back to the original point....to expect a 6th round pick like John Navarre to do it, on this team and its given circumstances right now, is not very realistic at all. Impossible...no, probably not....but you bet your money on it.....I'm certainly not betting any of mine.