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All 30 teams are in action on Saturday, April 4, and I'm poring over the odds to make moneyline predictions for all 15 games.
My MLB picks are especially bullish on the Toronto Blue Jays, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Seattle Mariners.
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 4-3.
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Cardinals win probability: 43%
Let's open with a slight upset, as the St. Louis Cardinals can make life miserable for former Redbird Jack Flaherty. The Detroit Tigers right-hander has been extremely uneven over his career, including last season, when he posted a 4.64 ERA over 31 starts. He also issued four walks in just over four innings in his first start, and I like the young St. Louis lineup to step up on the road.
Blue Jays win probability: 61%
Even though the Toronto Blue Jays haven't announced their starter as of this writing, I'm taking the visitors because of how the lineup rakes against left-handed pitchers like Chicago White Sox starter Anthony Kay. Toronto boasted the third-highest wRC+ against southpaws in 2025, highlighted by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ernie Clement, and George Springer, all of whom recorded an OPS north of .800 in these matchups.
Dodgers win probability: 73%
Washington Nationals starter Jake Irvin had the highest ERA (5.70) among all qualified starters in 2025. The Los Angeles Dodgers haven't quite turned on the offensive jets this season, but this isn't an advisable position to back the underdog.
A's win probability: 51%
This is mostly a fade of Houston Astros starting pitcher Tatsuya Imai, who looked very shaky in his MLB debut and now has to contend with the poor pitching conditions at Sutter Health Park against an A's team that has dangerous power up and down the lineup.
Pirates win probability: 49%
While no one would expect Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski to maintain a 40% strikeout rate, he looked exceptional in his season debut against the Yankees. But his success shouldn't be a surprise. He has a career 3.27 ERA over 190 innings split between the bullpen and rotation, and I like him to keep the Baltimore Orioles guessing.
Red Sox win probability: 57%
This is a combination of preferring starter Connelly Early to Randy Vasquez and how the Boston Red Sox lineup ultimately matches up against the right-hander. Vasquez racked up the strikeouts in his season debut, but that's not his bread and butter, as he fanned just 13.7% of batters last season.
Brewers win probability: 50%
Expect a better performance from Milwaukee Brewers rookie Brandon Sproat than what we saw in his first start. He issued four walks in three innings, and while he never had pinpoint command in the minors, this was far worse than anything he was accustomed to.
Reds win probability: 42%
The Texas Rangers haven't announced a starter, and the Cincinnati Reds lineup is an exciting one from top to bottom. More importantly, we're getting an extremely good price here, especially if Sal Stewart, Eugenio Suarez, and Elly De La Cruz get the bats going early.
Marlins win probability: 38%
Like with the Reds, I'm taking the Miami Marlins as significant road underdogs largely due to the value at +163. The Marlins have hit lefties like New York Yankees SP Ryan Weathers well in the early going, and this isn't the same perennial loser Miami team as we've grown accustomed to.
Rays win probability: 50%
The Minnesota Twins are a disaster in 2026, and while the Tampa Bay Rays may not be much better, I'll fade Mick Abel, who has often struggled with command throughout his career in the majors and minors.
Cubs win probability: 53%
Of all of the Cleveland Guardians starting pitchers, Slade Cecconi is the least impressive/daunting. He doesn't overpower anyone, rarely misses bats, and surrenders a ton of hard contact. He lives in the zone, and the Chicago Cubs will make mincemeat of his offerings, giving ***** Imanaga enough of a cushion in case he doesn't have his best stuff.
Diamondbacks win probability: 51%
Even after a sharp first outing of the season, I don't trust Atlanta Braves right-hander Bryce Elder, especially against an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup featuring Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo.
Rockies win probability: 35%
This is my biggest underdog pick of the day. Philadelphia Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo was snakebitten by the long ball in his season debut, and while I don't expect that to become a new norm for him, a game at Coors Field doesn't bode well.
Giants win probability: 47%
The New York Mets haven't looked quite right at the plate so far, and I don't expect that to immediately change against San Francisco Giants starter Landen Roupp at Oracle Park.
Mariners win probability: 60%
I'm not on board the Emerson Hancock train after one start, but I still expect the Seattle Mariners to knock Los Angeles Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz around enough for the right-hander to secure a win for the visitors.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.
Continue reading...
All 30 teams are in action on Saturday, April 4, and I'm poring over the odds to make moneyline predictions for all 15 games.
My MLB picks are especially bullish on the Toronto Blue Jays, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Seattle Mariners.
MLB moneyline picks for April 4
Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
|
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Cardinalsvs
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Tigers |
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+133 |
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Blue Jaysvs
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White Sox |
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-156 |
|
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Dodgersvs
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Nationals |
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-270 |
|
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Astrosvs
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A's |
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-104 |
|
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Oriolesvs
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Pirates |
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+104 |
|
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Padresvs
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Red Sox |
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-133 |
|
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Brewersvs
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Royals |
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+100 |
|
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Redsvs
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Rangers |
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+138 |
|
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Marlinsvs
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Yankees |
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+138 |
|
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Raysvs
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Twins |
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+100 |
|
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Cubsvs
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Guardians |
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+113 |
|
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Bravesvs
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Diamondbacks |
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-104 |
|
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Philliesvs
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Rockies |
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+186 |
|
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Metsvs
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Giants |
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+113 |
|
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Marinersvs
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Angels |
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-150 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 4-3.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for April 4
Cardinals vs Tigers: Cardinals (+133)
Cardinals win probability: 43%
Let's open with a slight upset, as the St. Louis Cardinals can make life miserable for former Redbird Jack Flaherty. The Detroit Tigers right-hander has been extremely uneven over his career, including last season, when he posted a 4.64 ERA over 31 starts. He also issued four walks in just over four innings in his first start, and I like the young St. Louis lineup to step up on the road.
Blue Jays vs Team: Blue Jays (-156)
Blue Jays win probability: 61%
Even though the Toronto Blue Jays haven't announced their starter as of this writing, I'm taking the visitors because of how the lineup rakes against left-handed pitchers like Chicago White Sox starter Anthony Kay. Toronto boasted the third-highest wRC+ against southpaws in 2025, highlighted by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ernie Clement, and George Springer, all of whom recorded an OPS north of .800 in these matchups.
Dodgers vs Nationals: Dodgers (-270)
Dodgers win probability: 73%
Washington Nationals starter Jake Irvin had the highest ERA (5.70) among all qualified starters in 2025. The Los Angeles Dodgers haven't quite turned on the offensive jets this season, but this isn't an advisable position to back the underdog.
Astros vs A's: A's (-104)
A's win probability: 51%
This is mostly a fade of Houston Astros starting pitcher Tatsuya Imai, who looked very shaky in his MLB debut and now has to contend with the poor pitching conditions at Sutter Health Park against an A's team that has dangerous power up and down the lineup.
Orioles vs Pirates: Pirates (+104)
Pirates win probability: 49%
While no one would expect Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski to maintain a 40% strikeout rate, he looked exceptional in his season debut against the Yankees. But his success shouldn't be a surprise. He has a career 3.27 ERA over 190 innings split between the bullpen and rotation, and I like him to keep the Baltimore Orioles guessing.
Padres vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-133)
Red Sox win probability: 57%
This is a combination of preferring starter Connelly Early to Randy Vasquez and how the Boston Red Sox lineup ultimately matches up against the right-hander. Vasquez racked up the strikeouts in his season debut, but that's not his bread and butter, as he fanned just 13.7% of batters last season.
Brewers vs Royals: Brewers (+100)
Brewers win probability: 50%
Expect a better performance from Milwaukee Brewers rookie Brandon Sproat than what we saw in his first start. He issued four walks in three innings, and while he never had pinpoint command in the minors, this was far worse than anything he was accustomed to.
Reds vs Rangers: Reds (+138)
Reds win probability: 42%
The Texas Rangers haven't announced a starter, and the Cincinnati Reds lineup is an exciting one from top to bottom. More importantly, we're getting an extremely good price here, especially if Sal Stewart, Eugenio Suarez, and Elly De La Cruz get the bats going early.
Marlins vs Yankees: Marlins (+163)
Marlins win probability: 38%
Like with the Reds, I'm taking the Miami Marlins as significant road underdogs largely due to the value at +163. The Marlins have hit lefties like New York Yankees SP Ryan Weathers well in the early going, and this isn't the same perennial loser Miami team as we've grown accustomed to.
Rays vs Twins: Rays (+100)
Rays win probability: 50%
The Minnesota Twins are a disaster in 2026, and while the Tampa Bay Rays may not be much better, I'll fade Mick Abel, who has often struggled with command throughout his career in the majors and minors.
Cubs vs Guardians: Cubs (-113)
Cubs win probability: 53%
Of all of the Cleveland Guardians starting pitchers, Slade Cecconi is the least impressive/daunting. He doesn't overpower anyone, rarely misses bats, and surrenders a ton of hard contact. He lives in the zone, and the Chicago Cubs will make mincemeat of his offerings, giving ***** Imanaga enough of a cushion in case he doesn't have his best stuff.
Braves vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks (-104)
Diamondbacks win probability: 51%
Even after a sharp first outing of the season, I don't trust Atlanta Braves right-hander Bryce Elder, especially against an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup featuring Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo.
Phillies vs Rockies: Rockies (+186)
Rockies win probability: 35%
This is my biggest underdog pick of the day. Philadelphia Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo was snakebitten by the long ball in his season debut, and while I don't expect that to become a new norm for him, a game at Coors Field doesn't bode well.
Mets vs Giants: Giants (+113)
Giants win probability: 47%
The New York Mets haven't looked quite right at the plate so far, and I don't expect that to immediately change against San Francisco Giants starter Landen Roupp at Oracle Park.
Mariners vs Angels: Mariners (-150)
Mariners win probability: 60%
I'm not on board the Emerson Hancock train after one start, but I still expect the Seattle Mariners to knock Los Angeles Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz around enough for the right-hander to secure a win for the visitors.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.
Continue reading...
