Michigan State hockey considered 'lock' to reach NCAA Tournament

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There's still about a month left in the regular season, but one probability metrics system has the Spartans as a lock to reach the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan State hockey is part of a small group of teams that have locked up a spot in the NCAA Tournament, according to College Puck NXT. The notable college hockey social media account posted a graphic that referenced PlayoffStatus.com's algorithm and noted Michigan State essentially has a 99% chance to reach the NCAA Tournament, even if they were to lose their remaining six games left in the the regular season.

Other teams considered locks to reach the NCAA Tournament includes Michigan, North Dakota, Western Michigan, Providence, Penn State and Quinnipiac. The NCAA Tournament for college hockey consists of 16 teams, with the selection process based on the NPI rankings -- which replaced Pairwise rankings this year. At the moment, Michigan State is ranked No. 1 in the NPI rankings, which means the Spartans would be the automatic top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today.

Michigan State is 22-6-0 on the season and currently holds a slight edge over rival Michigan in the Big Ten title race. The Spartans have been one of the top teams all year so it should come as no surprise that they are a lock to reach the NCAA Tournament, but it's still refreshing to see them heading to a third straight NCAA Tournament. Hopefully, this will be the year they breakthrough and reach their first Frozen Four since 2007.


2026 NCAA Hockey Tournament Probability Percentage!

While some teams have assured berths into the tourney, most others will have some work to do in the next month plus...

What pops off the most to YOU with these updated percentages?!

Source pic.twitter.com/NhMUKKWp5i

— College Puck NXT (@CollegePuckNXT) February 9, 2026

Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Michigan State news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Robert Bondy on X @RobertBondy5.

This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: Michigan State hockey considered 'lock' to reach NCAA Tournament


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