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Mexico has been thriving in their role as co-hosts at the World Cup. El Tri kicked off the tournament back on June 11th in Mexico City, sweeping aside a lacklustre South Africa by two goals to nil after strikes from Julián Quiñones and veteran striker Raúl Jiménez. They would then beat South Korea by a solitary Luis Romo goal to nil, confirming top spot in Group A with a game to spare, and leaving fans dreaming of a memorable run.
Mexico’s World Cup Outlook
Manager Javier Aguirre already knows his side’s path to a potential shock final appearance. They have already confirmed their spot in a Round of 32 clash on home turf at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City against one of the best-placed third-place teams. Then, they will likely meet a sputtering England in the Round of 16, once again on home turf at a stadium that El Tri seldom loses at. Win that, and Mexico will be through to the quarterfinals for the first time in 40 years, with Brazil the likely opponents in Miami.
But anyone expecting that to come to fruition, look away now. Online betting sites still think Mexico will fall just short of the round of the tournament that has eluded them for so long. The latest soccer betting at Bovada odds surprisingly makes the Round of 32 the most likely round of Mexico’s elimination, offering odds of 11/10 on such a scenario. The last 16 is then the second most likely option at 7/4.
Mexican fans are no strangers to a round of 16 exit. Between 1994 and 2018, El Tri were eliminated in that round in eight consecutive tournaments before suffering a group stage exit in Qatar in 2022, bringing that run to an even worse end. But throughout that 24-year run of round-of-16 eliminations, what were Mexico’s biggest missed opportunities to reach the elusive quarterfinals? Let’s take a look.
2002: Archrival USA Sends Mexico Home
Over the years, Mexico have lost to some of the best teams in the world in the Round of 16. Back in 2002, however, that wasn’t the case. After topping Group G ahead of heavyweights Italy, El Tri were handed a favourable draw in the second round against archrivals the United States. And with a squad containing the likes of Rafael Márquez, Jared Borgetti, Cuauhtémoc Blanco, and Gerardo Torrado, the Mexicans were heavily favoured to get the win.
Instead, however, they couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start. Former Fulham striker Brian McBride put the Stars and Stripes ahead early on, and Mexico were unable to find an equaliser, despite a relentless slew of attacking onslaughts. Then, with five minutes remaining, Landon Donovan sealed the American win as he slotted past Oscar Perez. Had Mexico managed to win, only a Germany team just beaten 5-1 by England and co-hosts South Korea would have stood between them and a shock final appearance.
2014: The Netherlands Mount Controversial Late Comeback
12 years later, Mexico squandered another golden opportunity to reach the quarterfinals. El Tri mounted an impressive charge throughout the group stage, finishing level on seven points with Group A winners Brazil, drawing with them while defeating both Cameroon and Croatia. They finished behind the hosting Brazilians on goal difference, setting up a last 16 tie with the Netherlands.
The Oranje had just put the world on notice after a 5-1 dismantling of defending champions Spain in the group stage and were favoured to progress. But Mexico, riding the wave of their stellar group stage displays, took a shaky lead early in the second half through former Barcelona youngster Giovani Dos Santos.
The Mexicans would cling onto that lead until two minutes before full time, when disaster struck as Wesley Sneijder rifled home from the edge of the area. Six minutes later came the moment that every Mexico fan is still enraged about to this day. In the fourth minute of injury time, Arjen Robben went down in the penalty area under minimal contact from captain Rafael Marquez. Klaas-Jan Huntelaar swept home the penalty, and El Tri were eliminated once again.
2006: Max Rodriguez Stunner Sees Argentina Through
In 2006, Mexico didn’t have the same solid group stage that they enjoyed in 2002 and 2014. Instead, they squeezed through to the last 16, despite drawing with lowly Angola and losing to Portugal. Four points were just enough to secure the runners-up spot behind Cristiano Ronaldo and Co., setting up a crunch quarterfinal with South American giants Argentina.
The Albiceleste flew through the group stage, topping Group C ahead of the Netherlands after a 6-0 drubbing of Serbia and Montenegro. Despite the bookies pegging them as favourites, it was Mexico who struck first when Rafa Marquez nodded home after just six minutes.
Four minutes later, Hernan Crespo levelled, and for the rest of the 90 minutes, the two sides couldn’t be separated, despite Argentina being at their best. In extra time, Mexico’s inability to finish the Argentinians off would come back to bite them as Maxi Rodriguez rifled home a stunning left-footed volley to secure his side a 2-1 win.
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