Lonzo Ball

[Yuma]

I guess it is style of play, but Fultz reminds me of Clyde Drexler when he was young and dunked a bunch.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I guess it is style of play, but Fultz reminds me of Clyde Drexler when he was young and dunked a bunch.

Man... I must be watching a completely different Fultz because I don't see anything like this.

 

[Yuma]

Man... I must be watching a completely different Fultz because I don't see anything like this.

Just going by the highlights posted here.

Clyde the Glide was explosive when he was young. He could still dunk with power late in his career. Those fast break dunk's of Fultz's remind me of the young Clyde the Glide. He could dribble between guys like I saw on the video posted here, too.

 

[Russ Smith]

The reason people are concerned about Ball's shooting is because his shooting form is really unusual. He basically pulls the ball next to his face before he shoots. So it is unlikely he will be successful at mid range jumpers, which is the core of pick and roll basketball.

https://theringer.com/lonzo-ball-ucla-shooting-mechanics-6eeda2ef3e41

This article explains it best. Basically no one in the NBA has ever had success shooting at such a low release point except for Kevin Martin. It also goes into how much his shot is tied to the specific ball he used in college (Wilson) and that may be why his shot percentage was so much higher than he has exhibited in the past.

It also goes over his inability to go right when shooting off the dribble, something that is a big concern for some NBA Scouts.

It literally could be a bunch of nothing. He may be the one guy who is successful but it is really noteworthy.

I've been comparing him to Kevin Martin for years so I'm glad I'm not alone, the shot looks very similar. That article was written 2 days before the Cincy game in the tourney. If you watched that game they were one of the best defensive teams in the country by essentially every metric. The first half they were almost perfect, they locked in on defense, took only good shots, they got back on defense, they were totally focused on 2 things, not letting UCLA get out and run, and making Lonzo go right. Lonzo had 8 points and 0 assists at the half and the media were talking up how overrated UCLA was. Down 3, Ball no assists, the CBS guys were speculating Ball was still smarting from the hard fall on his hip in the Kent State game.

Then the 2nd half happened, Lonzo put up 11 points 9 assists 3-4 from 3 and repeatedly went right drew help and kicked for shots. It was very obvious UCLA had made that adjustment at the half, they're playing Lonzo to pass and trying to make him go right. He just absolutely shredded them in the 2nd half. I think he had one catch and shoot 3, one straight on dribble pullup and one go left stepback, so none going right.

We've talked about that all year on UCLA boards Nick Johnson was the same way, go left pullup jumper, go right go to the rim, but he wasn't nearly the passer that Lonzo is. He's going to have to adjust, everyone gets that. part of why I like Lonzo so much is he was probably the player in the country who had to adjust the most of anybody to college. He played in a HS system that literally nobody else plays, that crazy Chino Hills system. The player he is now is nothing like the player he'll be in 3-4 years. Lots of people doubted him in HS, he doesn't play in the elite AAU events he's ducking them, that system inflates his stats he's overrated etc.

The stuff with the balls is hard to say, the amount of shots with Nike balls is pretty low, 44 shots, those 7 include Kentucky, Arizona and Oregon so it's not like they were cupcake games. The reason he shot a higher % from 3 in college than HS was obvious if you saw him play in HS, it wasn't the ball it was the quality of shots he took.

He's going to have to make adjustments absolutely ,he's not going to be nearly as impactful as a rookie as he was as a freshman.

 

[Russ Smith]

He is, but he's not wrong in his responses to you.

Just to be clear UCLA currently has 7 guys testing the draft. I expect Welsh to pull out, not sure if Holiday will. Of those 7 Lonzo is the only one I'm talking up. I think Leaf is good but a bit overrated, he looked better because of the way UCLA played. All those 3 shooters spread the court the lane was open and he was terrific in there. Plus Lonzo's passing, he'll play in the NBA but I don't expect him to be a big impact guy. Hope I'm wrong but I don't see it. I think Ike is a big guy who can jump, had balance issues all year, always falling over, hopefully that was the knee surgery you don't see guys that big and strong getting knocked down so often, seems like bad footwork. He has a chance if he works really hard and he's a great kid but he has very little feel. Welsh nice kid will eventually play in the NBA but probably a short career. Holiday has to get back to UCLA and play PG, he's an undersized 2 right now. Hamilton and Alford have no chance.

It's not like I'm talking up every UCLA player, Lonzo was just that good.

My main issue today wasn't even defending Lonzo, I just can't believe anybody is comparing Fultz to Gary Payton, Payton's one of my top 5 all time favorite players, similar size and length but Payton was downright mean on defense, he took it personally, never saw a hint of that from Fultz.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Just to be clear UCLA currently has 7 guys testing the draft. I expect Welsh to pull out, not sure if Holiday will. Of those 7 Lonzo is the only one I'm talking up. I think Leaf is good but a bit overrated, he looked better because of the way UCLA played. All those 3 shooters spread the court the lane was open and he was terrific in there. Plus Lonzo's passing, he'll play in the NBA but I don't expect him to be a big impact guy. Hope I'm wrong but I don't see it. I think Ike is a big guy who can jump, had balance issues all year, always falling over, hopefully that was the knee surgery you don't see guys that big and strong getting knocked down so often, seems like bad footwork. He has a chance if he works really hard and he's a great kid but he has very little feel. Welsh nice kid will eventually play in the NBA but probably a short career. Holiday has to get back to UCLA and play PG, he's an undersized 2 right now. Hamilton and Alford have no chance.

It's not like I'm talking up every UCLA player, Lonzo was just that good.

My main issue today wasn't even defending Lonzo, I just can't believe anybody is comparing Fultz to Gary Payton, Payton's one of my top 5 all time favorite players, similar size and length but Payton was downright mean on defense, he took it personally, never saw a hint of that from Fultz.

Agree with everything you say here.

 

[slinslin]

There is no question that Lonzo is a good prospect and the father is not a total ******* just talks a lot and pretty ignorant and naive so there is some outrageous comments although for the most part he makes sense.

But you can't deny that Lonzo's style of play is a bust risk in itself because I think it can be seen as an established fact that Lonzo won't be a scorer so if his style of running the offense does not work out well, what is he then?

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

There is no question that Lonzo is a good prospect and the father is not a ******* just talks a lot and pretty ignorant so there is some outrageous comments although for the most part he makes sense.

But you can't deny that Lonzo's style of play is a bust risk in itself because I think it can be seen as an established fact that Lonzo won't be a scorer so if his style of running the offense does not work out well, what is he then?

Rajon Rondo?

 

[JCSunsfan]

Rajon Rondo?

Lonzo is a better shooter BY FAR than Rajon Rondo or even Jason Kidd (when he first came into the league). Imagine Jason Kidd with at jump shot.

Again. Lonzo does not have to be able to get off a three in traffic to be effective, he just has to make open shots and he has already proven he can do that from the NBA distance--maybe as much as any other player I have ever seen coming out of college.

People said he would not be able to get his shot off in college, but he has done so with ease. He has a knack for know just the amount of time he needs.

I would not be disappointed at all with Lonzo or Markelle.

 

[SirStefan32]

Lonzo is a better shooter BY FAR than Rajon Rondo or even Jason Kidd (when he first came into the league). Imagine Jason Kidd with at jump shot.

Again. Lonzo does not have to be able to get off a three in traffic to be effective, he just has to make open shots and he has already proven he can do that from the NBA distance--maybe as much as any other player I have ever seen coming out of college.

People said he would not be able to get his shot off in college, but he has done so with ease. He has a knack for know just the amount of time he needs.

I would not be disappointed at all with Lonzo or Markelle.

I don't understand why people are so concerned about half-court sets. Ball hasn't had to run a half-court offense much, but that doesn't mean he can't do it. Worst case scenario- park him in the corner and have Booker run the show in half-court sets.

 

[Mainstreet]

I think a PG needs to be able to run half-court sets particularly because of the the playoffs. Sometimes the game gets slowed down with more emphasis on defense.

 

[slinslin]

Lonzo is a better shooter BY FAR than Rajon Rondo or even Jason Kidd (when he first came into the league). Imagine Jason Kidd with at jump shot.

No he is not, he has not proven himself as a jumpshooter from anywhere except a small sample size of college 3s with extremely questionable mechanics.

College defenders are not good enough to exploit them, but NBA defenders will know that Ball always goes to the left shooting.

You are getting blinded by 3pt% which has proven many many times to be a very unreliable indicator for how it will translate from college to NBA.

 

[Russ Smith]

I don't understand why people are so concerned about half-court sets. Ball hasn't had to run a half-court offense much, but that doesn't mean he can't do it. Worst case scenario- park him in the corner and have Booker run the show in half-court sets.

I also think that's a misconception. If you watched UCLA this year everyone tried to slow them down and make them play halfcourt and UCLA was actually pretty good at it, when Lonzo was in the game. When Lonzo sat and Holiday ran the point you could see right away the half court offense stagnated. UCLA didnt' run much pick and roll, Lonzo will have to adjust to that, but there's really no indication he can't run a halfcourt set.

 

[Russ Smith]

No he is not, he has not proven himself as a jumpshooter from anywhere except a small sample size of college 3s with extremely questionable mechanics.

College defenders are not good enough to exploit them, but NBA defenders will know that Ball always goes to the left shooting.

You are getting blinded by 3pt% which has proven many many times to be a very unreliable indicator for how it will translate from college to NBA.

And you're ignoring the reason that's true is that guys have to adjust to the longer 3 point line, and Lonzo doesn't have to because most of his 3's were NBA deep in college.

Rondo and Rubio are guys who you don't guard, you stand 5 feet off them and dare them to shoot and they can't make the shot. Lonzo has proven he can at the college level. If people guard him that way in the NBA, he'll make that shot. Rondo shot .283 from 3 in his 2 college seasons, it's not even remotely debatable that Lonzo is a better shooter than him coming out of college. He's a career .304 shooter from 3 in the NBA, I'm going to bet Lonzo shoots better than 30% for his career from 3 in the NBA.

 

[slinslin]

You are acting like Lonzo took extra-long 3s to prove something.

I say he took extra long 3s because he simply needs to create that space from his defender to get his shot off with his mechanics so these extra long 3s will be even longer in the NBA. So nothing changes in regards to that adjustment.

 

[Russ Smith]

You are acting like Lonzo took extra-long 3s to prove something.

I say he took extra long 3s because he simply needs to create that space from his defender to get his shot off with his mechanics so these extra long 3s will be even longer in the NBA. So nothing changes in regards to that adjustment.

And even if that proves to be true it just makes my point that he's a much better shooter than Rondo(and Rubio) because NOBODY guards those guys outside the 3 point line. If people are guarding Lonzo to make him shoot deeper 3's it's because they know he can make them if they don't, which isn't the case with Rondo and Rubio. The problem with those 2 is it's often 4 on 5 because you don't have to guard them. Rondo when he's even remotely effective shooting is a tough guard like he was last night, but if he can't make the open shot, you get an extra defender. That's not the case with Lonzo.

One of the big reasons 3 point shooters normally drop % when they first get to the NBA is the shot is longer, they have to extend their range, that's not the case with Lonzo he's been making NBA 3's and beyond since he was a freshman in HS.

 

[JCSunsfan]

You are acting like Lonzo took extra-long 3s to prove something.

I say he took extra long 3s because he simply needs to create that space from his defender to get his shot off with his mechanics so these extra long 3s will be even longer in the NBA. So nothing changes in regards to that adjustment.

He does not have to shoot contested threes. No one in the NBA really needs to do that. He just has to make open ones, and he does that at a high rate. Rondo never has, and for most of Kidd's career his defender went under every screen because they knew he could not make and would not take the open three. So yes. Ball is a much better three point shooter than Rondo or Kidd. I cannot imagine why anyone would even try to argue this.

Does Fultz had a nicer shot? Yes.
Is Fultz more athletic? It looks like it.
Is Fultz a better overall scorer. Yes, especially from mid-range.
Who is the better defender? Ball is. Fultz should be.
Should Ball's father matter? Yes, but not alot.
Should the UW record this year matter? If it was .500 or so, probably not. But it was 8-22, so yes.
Should the quality of players around them matter? Yes. But that cuts both ways. Better players around means less shots and lower stats in some areas for Ball. Worse players around mean more shots, and better stats in some areas for Fultz. The aberration is probably assists.

 

[slinslin]

Ball is not a a better defender than Fultz.

 

[slinslin]

And even if that proves to be true it just makes my point that he's a much better shooter than Rondo(and Rubio) because NOBODY guards those guys outside the 3 point line. If people are guarding Lonzo to make him shoot deeper 3's it's because they know he can make them if they don't, which isn't the case with Rondo and Rubio. The problem with those 2 is it's often 4 on 5 because you don't have to guard them. Rondo when he's even remotely effective shooting is a tough guard like he was last night, but if he can't make the open shot, you get an extra defender. That's not the case with Lonzo.

One of the big reasons 3 point shooters normally drop % when they first get to the NBA is the shot is longer, they have to extend their range, that's not the case with Lonzo he's been making NBA 3's and beyond since he was a freshman in HS.

Nobody guards those guys in the NBA. You are speaking as if Ball already proved in the NBA that he can indeed shoot which he absolutely has not.

 

[TJ]

There is no question that Lonzo is a good prospect and the father is not a total ******* just talks a lot and pretty ignorant and naive so there is some outrageous comments although for the most part he makes sense.

But you can't deny that Lonzo's style of play is a bust risk in itself because I think it can be seen as an established fact that Lonzo won't be a scorer so if his style of running the offense does not work out well, what is he then?

How is it a risk? He's a facilitating point guard coming in a league with too many shoot-first, ISO guys. He's probably the safest pick in the draft.

LaVar Ball's father will be irrelevant to Lonzo's play in the league.

 

[slinslin]

How is it a risk? He's a facilitating point guard coming in a league with too many shoot-first, ISO guys. He's probably the safest pick in the draft.

LaVar Ball's father will be irrelevant to Lonzo's play in the league.

There is a reason there are many "shoot-first" ISO guards. It has proven to be successful. Name me a "facilitating PG" that has worked out, Ricky Rubio? no. Kendall Marshall? no.

 

[TJ]

There is a reason there are many "shoot-first" ISO guards. It has proven to be successful. Name me a "facilitating PG" that has worked out, Ricky Rubio? no. Kendall Marshall? no.

I know you're struggling to make a good argument for Fultz over Ball, but you're seriously going to compare Rubio and Marshall?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

There is a reason there are many "shoot-first" ISO guards. It has proven to be successful. Name me a "facilitating PG" that has worked out, Ricky Rubio? no. Kendall Marshall? no.

Chris Paul

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I know you're struggling to make a good argument for Fultz over Ball, but you're seriously going to compare Rubio and Marshall?

I can make strong arguments on either side. It's basically do you want vanilla or chocolate. Still ice cream.

 

[Russ Smith]

Nobody guards those guys in the NBA. You are speaking as if Ball already proved in the NBA that he can indeed shoot which he absolutely has not.

wait so the shots he made in college unguarded won't go in unguarded in the NBA? Wind?

You said he's not a better shooter than Rondo, a guy nobody guards. If that's true, nobody will guard Ball either. So he'll be shooting the same wide open 3's in the NBA that you say he was making in college. So why will he be unable to make them?