doesn't to me, mostly because a 4 win team likely is getting pulverized in most games and would only be a one win improvement from last season. a 5-11 team in most cases is woefully mediocre generally, has one surprising win and would be 2 wins better than last year.
and if we're talking the difference between 3-4 wins and 5-6 wins, then you're talking about one scenario where we're just as bad as last year or one win better... but the second scenario is at least 2 games better, if not 3. a difference of 2-3 wins in the NFL isn't a massive jump, but it's a solid progression coming from an abysmal 3 win team last year.