Justin Upton is a huge disappointment!

[HoodieBets]

Justin has 12 RBIs because the hitters in front of him (BUpton/Heyward for the most part) have been ice cold. Certainly doesn't help your cause when you're hitting after the pitcher and two guys with a combined .275 OBP in front of you.

This. Its not Jup's fault BJ and Heyward are hitting under .220

 

[82CardsGrad]

What do strikeouts mean to you? On average, power hitters will strike out considerably more than your Martin Prado types. A healthy Justin will strikeout 120+ times, similar to your Josh Hamiltons and Ryan Brauns of the world (and at this K-rate, it isn't enough to be anywhere near the top 10 in the league in modern ball). Someone like Giancarlo Stanton will strikeout 160+ times. And three-outcomes types of players like Dunn of course have the ability to strikeout much more. I don't see why you'd focus on strikeouts, since it has little correlation with team runs scored.

Anyways, Justin's OPS is 1.306 right now, about .200 points higher than anyone else in the NL. Will he stay this hot? Nope, nobody except for a roided up Bonds can stay than hot.

But a monster MVP-year? Sure, I'm rooting for him.

I'm rooting for Upton as well. Regarding the strikeouts - I raise that topic because, on a team that has consistently been in the top 5 in total strikeouts, I am in favor of reducing that number by adding a high quality bat like Prado. Simple as that...

 

[jonberry]

I'm rooting for Upton as well. Regarding the strikeouts - I raise that topic because, on a team that has consistently been in the top 5 in total strikeouts, I am in favor of reducing that number by adding a high quality bat like Prado. Simple as that...

Yet Upton has consistantly gotten on base more often than Prado. Once again, your argument doesn't pass the smell test. Who cares if someone strikes out when they can take a walk. You talk about quality at bats, if you make an out it isn't quality, unless a run scores. The myth of productive outs is just that, a myth. Give me the guy who gets on base more, can get more bases in an at bat, takes more pitches per at bat and is a better base stealer. Oh and he is 4 years younger. It is a no brainer who the better player is.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Yet Upton has consistantly gotten on base more often than Prado. Once again, your argument doesn't pass the smell test. Who cares if someone strikes out when they can take a walk. You talk about quality at bats, if you make an out it isn't quality, unless a run scores. The myth of productive outs is just that, a myth. Give me the guy who gets on base more, can get more bases in an at bat, takes more pitches per at bat and is a better base stealer. Oh and he is 4 years younger. It is a no brainer who the better player is.

Upton's strikeout per game ratio is more than double his walk per game ratio (.95 strikeouts per game / .42 walks per game).
Prado's #'s are .45 strikeouts per game / .30 walks per game).

So, your statement of "who cares if someone strikeouts when they can take a walk" is lost on me...
You also seem to lack a full understanding of the term "quality at-bat". A quality at-bat is not only an out that drives in a run. It can also be an out that moves the runners into scoring position.

All that said... and to be clear, I am not at all suggesting Prado is a "better player" than Upton. Upton is way more talented and, all things being equal, should put up better offensive numbers over the course of his career.
But again, from a team perspective, I believe Prado is the better fit, period...

 

[Phrazbit]

Baseball isnt the NBA or the NFL. Its largely a series of individual matchups. Having a significantly better hitter in the order is better for the team than one who maybe sees more pitches or can draw some walks.

I like Prado, he is a good player, but to have him be the primary return in a trade involving a 25 year old two time all-star with superstar talent... is a joke.

 

[BC867]

Justin has 12 RBIs because the hitters in front of him (BUpton/Heyward for the most part) have been ice cold. Certainly doesn't help your cause when you're hitting after the pitcher and two guys with a combined .275 OBP in front of you.

This explanation is superseded by what Upton does when runners are on base, as JS22 pointed out. Especially when we compare him to the player who now occupies his #5 spot in the D'backs batting order, Goldy.

Justin some interesting numbers...

Runners on Base: .222
Runners in Scoring Position: .250
Bases Empty: .429

Now, Goldschmidt:

Runners on Base: .476
Runners in Scoring Position: .400
Bases Empty: .240

Polar opposites.

As I alluded to with reference to Curt Schilling, pitchers challenge sluggers to hit their best pitch when the consequence would be only a solo HR. They are a lot trickier when runners are on base.

Hence, Upton's strong HR start with the Braves. He has evidently been coming up more with the bases empty or not in scoring position because of the two guys hitting in front of him, including his brother. So he is hitting solo shots as the pitchers work their way into full-season form.

Runners on Base: .222
Runners in Scoring Position: .250
Bases Empty: .429

'Same problem we had with him in Phoenix. He hit more like a leadoff hitter while batting 3rd, then 5th, for us all of last season. He is consistent!

 

[82CardsGrad]

Baseball isnt the NBA or the NFL. Its largely a series of individual matchups. Having a significantly better hitter in the order is better for the team than one who maybe sees more pitches or can draw some walks.

I like Prado, he is a good player, but to have him be the primary return in a trade involving a 25 year old two time all-star with superstar talent... is a joke.

I always find it funny how players get paid tens/hundreds of millions of dollars to merely be successful 30% of the time... Yet, for some odd reason, we pay GM's far less and expect them to be successful 100% of the time.

We don't know yet if this move will prove to be a total flop, a complete success or somewhere in between... and we really won't know that answer for at least another 2-3 years. What we do know that that for the first 12/13 games, Upton has had a fantastic stretch, and Prado has been extremely good. I can live with that for now...

 

[JS22]

This explanation is superseded by what Upton does when runners are on base, as JS22 pointed out.

Looking at your quote, I just realized that I wrote "Justin some interesting numbers." Now, I'm pretty sure I was going for "Just some interesting numbers."

Oh well!

 

[BC867]

Looking at your quote, I just realized that I wrote "Justin some interesting numbers." Now, I'm pretty sure I was going for "Just some interesting numbers."

Oh well!

I sort of liked the pun. 'Just saying, Justin case. But, yeah, you didn't catch it Justin time.

 

[Phrazbit]

I always find it funny how players get paid tens/hundreds of millions of dollars to merely be successful 30% of the time... Yet, for some odd reason, we pay GM's far less and expect them to be successful 100% of the time.

We don't know yet if this move will prove to be a total flop, a complete success or somewhere in between... and we really won't know that answer for at least another 2-3 years. What we do know that that for the first 12/13 games, Upton has had a fantastic stretch, and Prado has been extremely good. I can live with that for now...

What I know right now (and nothing that happens down the road will change it) is that the Dbacks had a really really high value commodity, and they sold it for a fraction of its value.

Its one thing for a GM to be trying to improve the team and screw up once in a while, but the deliberate destruction of Upton's trade value by our front office was inconceivably stupid.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

What I know right now (and nothing that happens down the road will change it) is that the Dbacks had a really really high value commodity, and they sold it for a fraction of its value.

Its one thing for a GM to be trying to improve the team and screw up once in a while, but the deliberate destruction of Upton's trade value by our front office was inconceivably stupid.

Yep. Zero excuse for the handling of Upton, it's a disaster no matter how much anyone tries to sell it.

 

[BC867]

Yep. Zero excuse for the handling of Upton, it's a disaster no matter how much anyone tries to sell it.

How do you know that it wasn't the coaching staff who determined that JUp had reached his level of maturity? And that the rest of the coaching staffs in the league knew the same.

It's the team who had his brother who took a chance on him fulfilling the middle of the batting order potential.

I think the "disaster" was Upton's emotional limitations, rather than the people who had to deal with it. Time will tell!

Blaming anyone else than the player is skirting the issue.

 

[Gaddabout]

What's going to be interesting is watching how this team evolves up to the trade deadline. I think July, when the holes in the lineup start to show, will cause fans to finally realize Upton's missing and the D-Backs have no bat to turn to to carry them through key dry spells.

 

[txdbacksfan]

This explanation is superseded by what Upton does when runners are on base, as JS22 pointed out. Especially when we compare him to the player who now occupies his #5 spot in the D'backs batting order, Goldy.

As I alluded to with reference to Curt Schilling, pitchers challenge sluggers to hit their best pitch when the consequence would be only a solo HR. They are a lot trickier when runners are on base.

You're effectively using runners on on base as a sole proxy for measuring someone's situational hitting?

Take a look at various other clutch hitting related stats. Keep in mind small sample sizes, but the same also applies for the stats above:

Late and close:
.833 .857 2.000 2.857

Tie game:
.313 .389 .938 1.326

Within 1 run:
.357 .406 1.179 1.585

Within 2 runs:
.382 .421 1.059 1.480

within 3 runs:
.366 .400 1.000 1.400

within 4 runs:
.378 .420 1.000 1.420

Also, Justin leads the league in WPA (Win Probability Added). He's obviously been one of big factors of the Braves' early season success.

 

[Phrazbit]

How do you know that it wasn't the coaching staff who determined that JUp had reached his level of maturity? And that the rest of the coaching staffs in the league knew the same.

It's the team who had his brother who took a chance on him fulfilling the middle of the batting order potential.

I think the "disaster" was Upton's emotional limitations, rather than the people who had to deal with it. Time will tell!

Blaming anyone else than the player is skirting the issue.

Even you're right and Upton is a baby who needs his bottle it does not matter. Upton had huge value and the TEAM destroyed it with their own actions. This has NOTHING to do with his play or attitude. I am talking about the constant trade rumors and their idiotic attempt to trade him to Seattle, and the Seattle thing was the most unforgivable part. A total of 4 teams that Upton had veto rights to and they try to send him to one... so freaking dumb. Right there they broadcast to everyone what the Dbacks thought the max offer was... leaving them no where to go but down in negotiations.

If they had it in their minds that they had to move him then fine, handle it like professionals, find a deal and move him, dont spend 2 years destroying the value with this idiotic public trade floating. They had a commodity on the market for a year and a half, publicly smeared him a few times and then tried trade him to a place they KNEW he could not be sent to... thats ALL on the front office.

 

[saturn75]

Hi Arizona fans. I hope everybody is have a great day! Please understand I'm not here to troll. I'm just here to talk baseball.

There's no doubt Justin Upton is tearing up the ball. There is not a Braves fan I know of that's not thrilled to have him on our team. He's as hot as any player in baseball!

Through Justin's 2nd at bat in tonight's game Justin has 9 HR's, hitting .339, .406 OBP, and has a .893 slugging percentage. Seven of his nine HR's have come with two strikes in the count. Six of his HR's has either won the game in walk off fashion, tied the game, or giving the Braves the go ahead lead. Needless to say he's been as clutch as anybody could have ever expected for the Braves.

But the forgotten man in this trade is the "throw in player" Chris Johnson. Chris has played excellent defense at 3rd base but more importantly 1st base since our starting 1st baseman has been on the DL the past 10 days. After Chris's second at bat tonight his batting avg. is now .435 (22 hits in 48 at bats) with a .469 OBP and a .630 slugging percentage.

Don't get me wrong I hated to lose Martin Prado. He was one of my favorite players. He does everything the right way!!! But as a Braves fan I'm thrilled with this trade even though we lost Prado.

Everybody have a great and safe night. I look forward to talking baseball with the great Arizona Diamondback fans the rest of the year.

 

[DWKB]

Hi Arizona fans. I hope everybody is have a great day! Please understand I'm not here to troll. I'm just here to talk baseball.

There's no doubt Justin Upton is tearing up the ball. There is not a Braves fan I know of that's not thrilled to have him on our team. He's as hot as any player in baseball!

Through Justin's 2nd at bat in tonight's game Justin has 9 HR's, hitting .339, .406 OBP, and has a .893 slugging percentage. Seven of his nine HR's have come with two strikes in the count. Six of his HR's has either won the game in walk off fashion, tied the game, or giving the Braves the go ahead lead. Needless to say he's been as clutch as anybody could have ever expected for the Braves.

But the forgotten man in this trade is the "throw in player" Chris Johnson. Chris has played excellent defense at 3rd base but more importantly 1st base since our starting 1st baseman has been on the DL the past 10 days. After Chris's second at bat tonight his batting avg. is now .435 (22 hits in 48 at bats) with a .469 OBP and a .630 slugging percentage.

Don't get me wrong I hated to lose Martin Prado. He was one of my favorite players. He does everything the right way!!! But as a Braves fan I'm thrilled with this trade even though we lost Prado.

Everybody have a great and safe night. I look forward to talking baseball with the great Arizona Diamondback fans the rest of the year.

Who are you, a politician? A PR person? Nobody talks that inoffensively.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Who are you, a politician? A PR person? Nobody talks that inoffensively.

I don't know who he is but I voted for him, twice.

Steve

 

[Lefty]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-braves-single-season-home-run-record-in-2013

 

[TJ]

Ok, so both Upton and Chris Johnson homered. #9 and #2 respectively.

The "throw-in" in the deal is hitting .438.

Salt in the wound....

 

[JS22]

On a pure talent level, this was a horrible deal and may end up costing Towers his job UNLESS the Dbacks put together a good season. (Which I think they will.)

I do really like what Prado brings, but trading Upton was a huge gamble that has a great chance of making the Dbacks look like fools for the next 10 years.

 

[AzStevenCal]

On a pure talent level, this was a horrible deal and may end up costing Towers his job UNLESS the Dbacks put together a good season. (Which I think they will.)

I do really like what Prado brings, but trading Upton was a huge gamble that has a great chance of making the Dbacks look like fools for the next 10 years.

People will forget, no one remembers that Babe Ruth guy.

Steve

 

[TJ]

People will forget, no one remembers that Babe Ruth guy.

Steve

Of course, but I don't think Upton will hit 58 homers, eat 2,000 hot dogs, and bang 200 chicks in a season.

Random personal information - my father is buried right next to Babe Ruth in an Upstate NY cemetery.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Of course, but I don't think Upton will hit 58 homers, eat 2,000 hot dogs, and bang 200 chicks in a season.

Random personal information - my father is buried right next to Babe Ruth in an Upstate NY cemetery.

Now that's pretty cool.

Steve

 

[TJ]

Now that's pretty cool.

Steve

It is. His tombstone is epic. Shows a big angel touching a little boy's finger dressed in a baseball uniform with a scripture (I forget which). Always littered with bats, balls, and Yankee paraphernalia.