Joe's random draft thoughts

[Joe Mama]

Here are my random thoughts on the Phoenix Suns draft at 9 a.m. Tuesday morning. Consider this my own little blog which you guys are free to come in and blast. I'm sure I will be changing my mind repeatedly throughout the day.

***Most of the teams that pass on Andray Blatche will be sorry within two years. He's a late bloomer with great size, skill, and athleticism. He just needs to continue to learn and get stronger.

***Joey Graham might be a stud in the NBA, but I'm actually more intrigued by his brother, Stephen. He's an inch shorter, but I've heard he's actually more athletic with a better perimeter game. He played point guard in high school. He's the guy I am eyeing with the #57 along with Eddie Basden. It wouldn't surprise me if they are both gone by then though.

I do think Joey Graham is going to be a very good NBA player.

I know I've said it too many times already, but if the Phoenix Suns pass on Ike Diogu to take Sean May, Ryan Gomes, or Wayne Simien I'll be upset. I would probably also be upset if they took Chris Taft over him, but at least he has the size and athleticism. If Ike had played with either of those teams, he might have been the national player of the year. There's a reason all of the ESPN guys have him in their top 10.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2005/news/story?id=2095922

***I've been telling everybody for weeks that I like Derron Williams more than Chris Paul. I'm changing my mind that the last minute. If I had to choose between the two I would take Paul. I think I became enamored with Williams in the final four, and I lost track of just how good Chris Paul is. He is a better shooter, he's a better creator, he's a better open court player, and he still a very good defender. I still think Williams is going to be a very good player, but I think Chris Paul is going to be better.

***I really don't understand the fascination with Marvin Williams. I think it's possible that he ends up being a good player in the NBA, but I don't see him as a superstar like some people do. If I was that when I would trade that #2 to the highest bidder. I would much rather have Chris Paul, Derron Williams, and maybe even Gerald Green.

***Channing Frye will probably be a solid F/C player, but he's never going to be an All-Star. He will probably average 13 points, 7-8 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game for his career. There will probably be some busts drafted before him and around him, but I think there will also be a handful of much better NBA players taken after him.

***Martynas Andriuskevicius will never be a good NBA player. I haven't even seen him play, and I think he is Tskitishvili and every other European flop put together. He's never going to have an NBA body. If the Phoenix Suns draft him I'll absolutely lose it. He will be a bust for anyone taking him in the first round because they will have passed on at least a player or two who will have a good, solid NBA career.

That's it for now. I'll add more as it comes to me.

Fire away!

Joe Mama

 

[Joe Mama]

***Am I the only one who worried about who the San Antonio Spurs pick? Someone good will still be left on the board for them. I wouldn't be surprised if one of these European guys drops to them, they keep him overseas for a year or two, and he comes in than to really help San Antonio. I could also see a guy like Ryan Gomes helping them out.

 

[Yuma]

No way the Suns pass on Ike to take May. That being said, I could see Ike going early and May dropping to us. In that scenario, I wouldn't be upset with May. I know I think he will play better in the NBA than you do, but I see a young hard worker that could help the Suns right away, instead of some developmental or European pick that won't be ready for a couple years.

 

[Joe Mama]

I heard Leander on the radio about an hour ago. He didn't even mention Diogu. Then when a guy called in with his prediction that the Phoenix Suns would take Diogu they practically laughed at him. I'm almost starting to hope that he is off the boards by #21, so I'd all have to get incredibly upset with the team if they pass on him.

Joe Mama

 

[Yuma]

I heard Leander on the radio about an hour ago. He didn't even mention Diogu. Then when a guy called in with his prediction that the Phoenix Suns would take Diogu they practically laughed at him. I'm almost starting to hope that he is off the boards by #21, so I'd all have to get incredibly upset with the team if they pass on him.

Joe Mama

Hey, calm down. I have watched a ton of drafts over the years, and the Suns have had tons of guys I wanted them to draft, only to have them gone or passed up by the Suns. I would get really pissed, then the guy the Suns drafted turned out to be a better pro than the one we missed out on.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'm sorry, I am not sold on Ike Diogu as more than a role player in the NBA (or perhaps a starter on a weaker or slow down team). Believe me (as an ASU Alum) I want Ike to succeed.

However, I have just found ASU basketball boring the past few years. It almost always seems like when ASU had a big game, more often than not, ASU would lose. IMO, it seems like Ike should have elevated the play of his team more the past few years to win a few of these big games (and not just with the UoA). Yes, perhaps one can blame it on surrounding talent or coaching but I never got excited enough to think that Ike would rise up and carry his team to victory.

If the Suns select Ike, I will cross my fingers and hope that you are right and I will be happy that the Suns got a big man that may help. I do love his reach, rebounding and outside shooting. It's just his quickness and explosiveness I question on the NBA level.

It wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong. I'm admit I wanted the Suns to draft Wilcox or Hilario before Stoudemire. Man, did I miss this pick (although I had never seen Stoudemire or Hilario play).

I will support whoever the Suns draft. Afterall I am a Suns fan

Just as a thought, ASU never did recover from firing Ned Wulk the year after he had several players turn pro. I never could figure out how ASU thought he could win the following year when all his star players turned pro.

 

[Joe Mama]

***For the record, I don't think Diogu is ever going to be an NBA All-Star. I think it's possible he could be a quality starting power forward, but I think it's most likely that he's a very good sixth man. I also think he will contribute immediately for the team that takes him.

Joe Mama

 

[Gaddabout]

Hey, calm down. I have watched a ton of drafts over the years, and the Suns have had tons of guys I wanted them to draft, only to have them gone or passed up by the Suns. I would get really pissed, then the guy the Suns drafted turned out to be a better pro than the one we missed out on.

I remember thinking the Suns were brilliant in 1989 for taking Anthony Cook with the 24th pick in the first round. Then they took my favorite player that year, Ricky Blanton, in the second round. I was certain they had a stellar draft. Blanton played all of 20 something games for the Bulls in 1993, his only NBA action. I made more money in 1993 than Blanton and I was in college. I think he picked up about $8,000 on a couple of 10-day contracts.

I remember scratching my head over Larry Nance and feeling ecstatic over William Bedford, so my history with Suns drafts is just stellar. Oh yes, I remember booing the selection of Dan Majerle, and hissing at Cotton for lecturing me. What the heck did he know?

If anyone would like my opinions on this year's draft, please send a check or money order to ...

 

[Gaddabout]

However, I have just found ASU basketball boring the past few years. It almost always seems like when ASU had a big game, more often than not, ASU would lose. IMO, it seems like Ike should have elevated the play of his team more the past few years to win a few of these big games (and not just with the UoA). Yes, perhaps one can blame it on surrounding talent or coaching but I never got excited enough to think that Ike would rise up and carry his team to victory.

Winning basketball in the modern era is typically about guard play, even on teams with good or great big men. Ask Lute -- he learned the hard way in the 80s. You have to have guys that can get the ball to the big men in position to score. Ike was all by himself on those ASU teams. The guard play was well below average.

 

[Yuma]

I remember thinking the Suns were brilliant in 1989 for taking Anthony Cook with the 24th pick in the first round. Then they took my favorite player that year, Ricky Blanton, in the second round. I was certain they had a stellar draft. Blanton played all of 20 something games for the Bulls in 1993, his only NBA action. I made more money in 1993 than Blanton and I was in college. I think he picked up about $8,000 on a couple of 10-day contracts.

I remember scratching my head over Larry Nance and feeling ecstatic over William Bedford, so my history with Suns drafts is just stellar. Oh yes, I remember booing the selection of Dan Majerle, and hissing at Cotton for lecturing me. What the heck did he know?

If anyone would like my opinions on this year's draft, please send a check or money order to ...

Kinda on the flip of what you are saying, I was geeked about the Marion pick. This guy was Mr. Everything on the Running Rebels. If he would have went to any other college, the Suns wouldn't have got him. However, when I was gushing about this pick on message boards, I had every Suns fan on earth telling me what an idiot I was. I went through a lot of abuse until the Suns season started.

I vaguely remember a center in one of the drafts that I really wanted the Suns to get. A team the pick before us "stole" him. I can't remember the guy's name, but he was out of the league at the end of the season. I have to go back and find out who we got and what draft that was. In general, Phoenix usually pulls out good players. They seem to have really good scouting.

 

[JCSunsfan]

With the new nbdl in place, the Suns will take the BPA.

And that stands for the "best prospect available." They will not pass up a player with huge upside for a player that can play now.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them take a Euro with huge upside, or even a high schooler like Blatche (kid averaged 25, 18, and 8 blocks his last 3 years of hs, I know its hs but wow).

They believe that they can fill out this year's roster in free agency. All this talk about possibly getting a player that contribute this year is just a smokescreen.

 

[Skkorpion]

The Suns rarely show patience with their draft picks, usually trading them quickly unless they contribute immediately. My opinion is the same applies tthis year.

Either we'll get a NBA-ready contributor or we'll trade the pick. No european project for us. Not one has ever played well for us.

 

[Yuma]

The Suns rarely show patience with their draft picks, usually trading them quickly unless they contribute immediately. My opinion is the same applies tthis year.

Either we'll get a NBA-ready contributor or we'll trade the pick. No european project for us. Not one has ever played well for us.

I kinda agree. Everyone is making a big deal about the NBDL and European cap space thing, but I think the Suns KNOW they are close to a championship and want more solid picks that can play now AND have some upside. I would be VERY surprised at a REAL reach pick, unless it's a big stiff at the end of round 2!

 

[Yuma]

Joe, saw this on AZRepublic.com and thought of you!

SUNS: Ike Diogu, PF, Arizona State
The Suns usually look for players more athletic than Diogu, but he's a logical choice here. He was a local star at Arizona State, the team needs more power up front, and Shawn Marion is likely to be able to move back to small forward now that Quentin Richardson is supposedly headed to New York in a trade for Kurt Thomas. Many believe Diogu is a true sleeper who could end up being an Elton Brand clone. He would be a steal at this point.

 

[hcsilla]

To Joe Mama's starting post:

I would take Paul over Williams too. Williams is bigger but Paul is just a better player.

I don't understand the Marvin Williams-hype either. He is the 2nd coming of Al Harrington maybe with a little bit better defense.

I don't think that Frye will be a 13/8/1,5 player, he is too soft.

I like Blatche's versatility too.

Joey Graham is OK, but I see him as a Ruben Patterson-clone with better jump shot and head.

I guess that the Suns won't take Marty. They will take Diogu if he will be there, he won't though.

 

[George O'Brien]

If there was a rule about fans never ragging on guys they pumped prior to the draft, basketball boards as we know them would go out of business. I cannot understand why people will go on and on about how some guy is going to be a superstar after sitting for a few years, but rag on Leandro ceaselessly. If you take a project, then accept that he's a project and stop griping that some other guys are better out of the gate.

Personally, I hate drafting projects. I realize that Amare was a perceived as a project, but the Suns knew better. Real projects like Lampe take an awful long time to develop and there is no assurance the wait is worth it.

I have a strong preference for guys with three or four years of college with a proven track record. I know a lot of scouts complain because these guys don't have the "upside", but they are much more likely to be able play and less likely to be total flops.

I like Ike because he will be able to play. I worry about the HS guys because I'm not sure they can. Neither Petro nor Taft have demonstrated they are ready. Yes, they have great builds and lots of upside, but they have not shown it in competition.

Ike is hardly ideal. His failure to "raise his level of performance" has to be matched by the fact that the other teams raised their level too. Ike might not be a huge star, but I suspect he might do better than expected considering that he won't be triple teamed playing along side Amare.

 

[elindholm]

And not only that, but it's just foolish to hope for a star at #21. Yes, the Suns have gotten very lucky with late first-round picks a few times in the past, but it's just too much to hope for on a regular basis. There's nothing wrong with getting a solid role player with a pick that late -- in fact, it should be considered a success.

 

[Yuma]

I just wish there was a guy like Xavier McDaniel in the draft. Someone that intimidates the opposition!

 

[tobiazz]

Some responses to Joe's thoughts:

• Marty will be a worse version of Skits.
• Marvin Williams will be a good player, but maybe just like Joe Smith or Lamar Odom. Prob not a really dominant guy, but I bet he will make a few All-Star games.
• Paul is great, Deron is overrated.
• I was thinking the same thing about the Spurs pick
• Blatche is very intriguing, but wouldn't he be listed around the top ten if he was as good as his scouting report says? Maybe he will be Miles Part 2.

 

[ACY]

I just wish there was a guy like Xavier McDaniel in the draft. Someone that intimidates the opposition!

Jason Maxiell from Cincinnati is supposed to be nasty. My plan would be to trade the #21 to Portland for #27 and #35. Draft the best guard or swingman at 27, maybe Luther Head or Nate Robinson, and take Maxiell at 35. Whoever we choose at 21 is probably going to be there at 27 and hopefully Portland falls in love with a head case at 21. Are there any other Outlaws or Convicts or Felons on the first round bubble?

 

[Mainstreet]

Jason Maxiell from Cincinnati is supposed to be nasty. My plan would be to trade the #21 to Portland for #27 and #35. Draft the best guard or swingman at 27, maybe Luther Head or Nate Robinson, and take Maxiell at 35. Whoever we choose at 21 is probably going to be there at 27 and hopefully Portland falls in love with a head case at 21. Are there any other Outlaws or Convicts or Felons on the first round bubble?

If Portland would do it, I find it very enticing (perhaps the Suns could even make it contingent on who is available at #21). Can you call Portland about the deal? I really would like to get Nate Robinson and a potential quality big in this draft. I like what I hear about Maxiel.

 

[F-Dog]

Is this the place for final predictions?


--I still think that the Suns want Diogu, and that they'll try to trade up in the draft to get him (using Barbosa). I believe the Suns will slot Diogu in the rotation as the backup center, and the plan is to move him to starting center in a couple of years, if the team switches over to "normal-sized lineups".

I'm not a fan of Diogu on the Suns--I believe he's a lousy fit, as the Suns themselves have been telling people recently--but this is what I think will happen.


--I still think the next choice is either Taft or Petro. Either player would be penciled in as the Suns backup center next year, just like Diogu (with Diogu, they'll use pen, I guess). Beyond that, the Suns will pick a Euro or trade.

--Marvin Williams will be the #3 or #4 player in this draft; the #1 player will be drafted well down the line. This draft is very deep but weak at the top, and Marvin Williams stands out because he's a sure thing.

--The Clippers trade with the Nuggets. Nuggets get Antoine Wright or Martell Webster, Clippers get Rashad McCants and Korolev.

--I like Deron Williams over Chris Paul, but I wouldn't bet on my prediction. I don't see any of the three big-name PGs turning into great players.

--Frye looks like a future rotation player to me, a fifth starter/bench type. He might get 13/8 with enough minutes, but the team that gives him those minutes needs to be looking for an upgrade.

--I can't tell with Blatche. Same with Joey Graham, to be perfectly honest--I don't know how much Ron Artest Graham has, that willingness to kill the other guy rather than lose to him. Graham drifted in and out at OSU.

--I think Andriuskevicius will be a useful NBA player someday, maybe in five years. He'll probably play a lot like Zarko does. If he gets drafted in the first round, Andriuskevicius should be one of the flagship players for the new NBDL.


I'll try to check in during the draft, to see how things are going.

 

[F-Dog]

Oh yeah, my long-shot guess for the Suns' second-round pick is Stefano Mancinelli, the "Euro Nocioni". I think they'll try to bring in Bracey Wright as a UFA.


And, the Spurs will probably draft Mickael Gelabale and leave him with his team in Spain. He'll be OK, but he's not going to keep the team going if Duncan gets hurt or anything like that.

 

[Russ Smith]

Jason Maxiell from Cincinnati is supposed to be nasty. My plan would be to trade the #21 to Portland for #27 and #35. Draft the best guard or swingman at 27, maybe Luther Head or Nate Robinson, and take Maxiell at 35. Whoever we choose at 21 is probably going to be there at 27 and hopefully Portland falls in love with a head case at 21. Are there any other Outlaws or Convicts or Felons on the first round bubble?

I think Head is going to fall like a rock, I would almost be surprised if he got drafted.

It's not gotten a lot of play in the media for whatever reason but Head was arrested early in his Illinois career, his buddies and he broke into a fellow students apartment and stole a bunch of stereo equipment, CD's etc. They reportedly had baseball bats in case they encountered anybody, the victim was home but hid out until they left. Head and his friends were caught redhanded but the judge let Head off easy. 2 of the friends were bit player teammates who were kicked off the team, but the coach "surprisingly" let Head keep his scholarship.

He's reportedly kept clean since then but that's not one of those "college prank" type things NBA teams scoff at, that's an outright criminal act. That same season he got busted for driving without a license but again Weber let him off easy, Head reportedly offered to quit the team if they felt he was being too much of a distraction but Weber let him stay.

I'd be pretty surprised if anybody takes Head at all he's not such a great player that he's worth taking given his past record IMHO.

 

[Russ Smith]

I think Head is going to fall like a rock, I would almost be surprised if he got drafted.

.

Boy I nailed that.

I can't believe someone used a first round guaranteed salary on a kid with Head's offcourt history. Oh well.