If We Trade #3 - What would you take?

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I wonder what people thought they would take to move off of drafting Carter or Anderson so I wanted to throw out a few scenarios.

Scenario #1 - Falcons

Cards give up - #3, #66

Cards receive - #8, #44, #75, Falcons 2024 1st

Scenario #2 - Panthers

Cards give up - #3, #102

Cards receive - #9, #39, #60, 2024 1st and 2nd.

Scenario #3 - Lions

Cards give up - #3

Cards receive - #6, #18, 2024 5th
 

RON_IN_OC

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I would probably target the Raiders at 7 and not any lower than that. Raiders have been known to blow draft picks, so maybe get a decent haul from them.

2023 1,2,4 2024 1,4
 
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FYI these were some scenarios various mocks threw up.

The Jets moved from 6 to 3 in 2018 and it cost them #6, #37, #49 in 2018 and their 2019 2nd.
 
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With a competent GM these scenarios are very tempting

To me it depends on who we hire

Assuming it's a competent GM the question is would you be willing to move off a potential "sure thing" like Anderson or Carter for a longer shot that might not work out.

I'll be honest, I struggle with who I would pick at say #6.

I like Johnston but I don't think he's worth #6 and you can get good WR's deep. Is there going to be a big difference between Johnson and a guy at #25?

I'm not big on any of the Edge guys ranked top 10 outside Anderson. I don't think Ringo is as good as Gardner. I'm guessing it would have to be a tackle but more Skoronski as needs to be able to play RT or if the org are hot for Bresee that might work too.

Maybe it's just me but I'm a bit meh on the guys after Carter and Anderson but I haven't watched a tonne of them yet and the combine will probably get me drooling for someone.
 

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If that was the only choices I’d take the lions.
We could still get and edge or ok with our first pick.
I’d take the Gibbs kid with 18( I think he will go higher than most think)
With our 3rd we could add another dl assuming we took an edge at # 3.
 

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The Jets moved from 6 to 3 in 2018 and it cost them #6, #37, #49 in 2018 and their 2019 2nd.

2021: No. 3: Miami → San Francisco (PD). Miami traded a first-round selection (3rd overall) to San Francisco in exchange for a first-round selection (12th overall), 2022 first- and third-round selections, and a 2023 first-round selection


two comparable trades above involving the #3 pick with a QB as the target.

i think this draft is deep enough that if, lets say the Jets at 13 offered the SF package above -- I am absolutely taking it.

why? with Kyler on his new contract, its critical that you add players on relatively inexpensive rookie contracts.

The opportunity to take 1 high pick and turn it into five top 50 picks is smart roster building
 

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I wonder what people thought they would take to move off of drafting Carter or Anderson so I wanted to throw out a few scenarios.

Scenario #1 - Falcons

Cards give up - #3, #66

Cards receive - #8, #44, #75, Falcons 2024 1st

Scenario #2 - Panthers

Cards give up - #3, #102

Cards receive - #9, #39, #60, 2024 1st and 2nd.

Scenario #3 - Lions

Cards give up - #3

Cards receive - #6, #18, 2024 5th
hmmm…. tough choice. I think I’d go Falcons because I see their 1st next year being much higher than the Panthers. Could possibly turn their pick into another situation just like this year where we can keep trading down and accumulating more picks a la Jimmy Johnson.
 
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I only want to move back if Anderson is unavailable when we pick. I'm not sold on Carter, but a top Edge prospect is gold in my eyes.

I think I'm the same.

If Anderson is there I want him. If Carter is there I can trade back and easily live with Bresee and a bunch more picks. Carter looks very good but then I can't help thinking that Marcell Dareus went #3 and JJ Watt went #11.

Dareus was good for a short spell but he was no Watt and he was trash by 26 and out of the league by 29.
 

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Scenario #3 - Lions

Cards give up - #3

Cards receive - #6, #18, 2024 5th

Have you reviewed these thoughts through a Value Chart?

I realise that in the end, it comes down to what value the buyers and sellers agree on, but the third pick in the draft has a value of 514, according to the Hill update of the Jimmy Johnson value chart, and 446 for the sixth. The difference, 68, gets you around a 70th pick as additional compensation.
 

DVontel

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I think I'm the same.

If Anderson is there I want him. If Carter is there I can trade back and easily live with Bresee and a bunch more picks. Carter looks very good but then I can't help thinking that Marcell Dareus went #3 and JJ Watt went #11.

Dareus was good for a short spell but he was no Watt and he was trash by 26 and out of the league by 29.
Imagine passing on Carter for a guy that hasn’t lived anywhere close to his high school hype in Breese. Talk about worse case scenario.
 
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2021: No. 3: Miami → San Francisco (PD). Miami traded a first-round selection (3rd overall) to San Francisco in exchange for a first-round selection (12th overall), 2022 first- and third-round selections, and a 2023 first-round selection


two comparable trades above involving the #3 pick with a QB as the target.

i think this draft is deep enough that if, lets say the Jets at 13 offered the SF package above -- I am absolutely taking it.

why? with Kyler on his new contract, its critical that you add players on relatively inexpensive rookie contracts.

The opportunity to take 1 high pick and turn it into five top 50 picks is smart roster building

Yeah I'd be good with that. I actually think there is more value at 12 that at 6 this year.

3 1st's and a 2nd for dropping back 9 spots would set us up.
 

DVontel

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This is simple, guys.

Hope for Indy to trade with Chicago, therefore, us landing Anderson is near-done.

Or Chicago stays pat & draft Anderson, we just sit where we’re at & draft Carter.

Lets not overthink this like Simmons over Wirfs. Lets not overthink this like Keim would.

Trading back this year is a big no-no.
 

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This is simple, guys.

Hope for Indy to trade with Chicago, therefore, us landing Anderson is near-done.

Or Chicago stays pat & draft Anderson, we just sit where we’re at & draft Carter.

Lets not overthink this like Simmons over Wirfs. Lets not overthink this like Keim would.

Trading back this year is a big no-no.
I'd only trade back if both Anderson and Carter are gone.
 

Proximo

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I wonder what people thought they would take to move off of drafting Carter or Anderson so I wanted to throw out a few scenarios.

Scenario #1 - Falcons

Cards give up - #3, #66

Cards receive - #8, #44, #75, Falcons 2024 1st

Scenario #2 - Panthers

Cards give up - #3, #102

Cards receive - #9, #39, #60, 2024 1st and 2nd.

Scenario #3 - Lions

Cards give up - #3

Cards receive - #6, #18, 2024 5th
I would do Scenario 1 and 2, 3 is not quite enough - make it a 2nd in 24 and I might do that one also
 

Proximo

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I think I'm the same.

If Anderson is there I want him. If Carter is there I can trade back and easily live with Bresee and a bunch more picks. Carter looks very good but then I can't help thinking that Marcell Dareus went #3 and JJ Watt went #11.

Dareus was good for a short spell but he was no Watt and he was trash by 26 and out of the league by 29.
Based on the little bit I have seen, I can't even understand why Carter is considered a top 10 pick. Anderson does appear like a legit number 3 pick though.
 
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Scenario #3 - Lions

Cards give up - #3

Cards receive - #6, #18, 2024 5th

Have you reviewed these thoughts through a Value Chart?

I realise that in the end, it comes down to what value the buyers and sellers agree on, but the third pick in the draft has a value of 514, according to the Hill update of the Jimmy Johnson value chart, and 446 for the sixth. The difference, 68, gets you around a 70th pick as additional compensation.

The value chart is only a baseline. A glass of water ain't worth much in New York but it's highly sought after in the sahara.

Plus it's impossible to know value for a lot of traded picks as they are in the future.

The Niners trade to Miami was for a 3rd worth 2200 points and they gave up 1200, 92, 640 and whatever this years draft pick ends up. Let's say 700. So all in all 2632.

I'd say about 20% overpay is about right for a buying team. But no I didn;t run them through anything, this is what various mocks proposed.
 

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This is simple, guys.

Hope for Indy to trade with Chicago, therefore, us landing Anderson is near-done.

Or Chicago stays pat & draft Anderson, we just sit where we’re at & draft Carter.

Lets not overthink this like Simmons over Wirfs. Lets not overthink this like Keim would.

Trading back this year is a big no-no.
I think everyone would stay for Anderson. Maybe everyone? But pretty much everyone. Carter is a more confusing one that over time we can debate more. Hopefully we get WA as I think we will have a great shot at it. I even think Chicago takes Carter over Anderson since they just moved to a 4-3 last offseason.

Also...... Simmons was the right pick over Wirfs. No after-action review will change that stance from me. It was the wrong choice now looking back....... But its not the glaring error everyone thinks it is now. Levi Brown over AP was a glaring error. Simmons over Wirfs was almost universally understood as a great move aside from a few dissenting voices.
 

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I only want to move back if Anderson is unavailable when we pick. I'm not sold on Carter, but a top Edge prospect is gold in my eyes.
I agree 100% in regards to Anderson. And I felt the same about Carter until I watched more tape & did some research. My concerns with Carter:
Stamina. He’s like Quinnen Williams, in that he probably only is on the field less than 70%
He spends too much time on the ground. Loses his balance because he concentrates so much on explosion off the ball.
Strengths are really impressive though:
-Speed of the ball is insane for a big man. Sometimes it leads to him losing balance, but that can be coached out of him.
-He gets held on almost every play. As he continues to improve, he will require double teams all the time. And he seems to be getting better and better.
-Great pad level positioning
-More and more, he makes your Center look really bad.

As I see it, Anderson may give you far more early on, but Carter could be the better long term answer. Either way, I don’t think we pass on either of these guys. The only way I trade out of #3 is if they’re both gone, and I don’t see that happening.
 

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I think everyone would stay for Anderson. Maybe everyone? But pretty much everyone. Carter is a more confusing one that over time we can debate more. Hopefully we get WA as I think we will have a great shot at it. I even think Chicago takes Carter over Anderson since they just moved to a 4-3 last offseason.

Also...... Simmons was the right pick over Wirfs. No after-action review will change that stance from me. It was the wrong choice now looking back....... But its not the glaring error everyone thinks it is now. Levi Brown over AP was a glaring error. Simmons over Wirfs was almost universally understood as a great move aside from a few dissenting voices.
Agree. I mostly blame VJ for Simmons development. VJ is just as responsible for our failures as Kliff & Keim. Maybe MORE. Michael cannot be that stupid to be even entertaining the thought of hiring VJ as our HC. That just cannot happen. We need a strong DC in order to save Simmons & Collins. One more year under VJ & they both would be useless to us. We need someone like Demeco Ryans or Vic Fangio here to fix what VJ has almost ruined.
 
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Based on the little bit I have seen, I can't even understand why Carter is considered a top 10 pick. Anderson does appear like a legit number 3 pick though.

I'm just not very hot on DT's that high. I think they struggle to transition and guys that looks great in college against future truckers struggle vs much stronger, faster and more experienced NFL players.

And Carter has 6 career sacks in 35 career games and 18.5 TFL's. There's a lot of "He's so strong and he gets a tonne of pressures but hasn't had the production because Georgia rotate the line so much" or "He's been playing injured". I get that.

But that asks the question "Can he handle an NFL workload?" He played 396 snaps in 2021 (40%) and 308 snaps in 2022. In the NFL he's going to need to play 800+ snaps a year. That's a massive leap.

I'm just not comfortable projecting DT's at #3 that don't have steller college production and such limited play time.

I feel there's more projection and hope there than with Anderson. So if Anderson is gone and it's Carter or trade back I think I'd take the trade back.
 

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