How many wins will the Suns end with this year?

[Suns_fan69]

We've talked about it informally in a few different threads, but let's see where everyone thinks the Suns will end up at the end of the season.

To be explicit, this isn't a 'if everything goes perfect' scenario, this is your best guess at a realistic scenario.

 

[elindholm]

46

 

[devilalum]

I ain't no Nostradumbass.

51

 

[Sci Fi]

Would you like the number with Goran Dragic as the focal point or with Eric Bledsoe?

With Dragic the number is tantalizingly close to the magical 64.

With, Bledsoe? Las Vegas is right.

 

[BC867]

Taking everything into account, I voted 45-49 before reading the posts or seeing how others voted.

Tonight against Denver, Goran and Bledsoe seemed to be an either-or as far as being active on offense, just as they were a lot last season. The benefit there is stamina.

It will be interesting to see if that changes as the season progresses.

 

[Suns_fan69]

For the record I voted 48. I think the shoddy big man rotation plus the general improvement in the rest of the West keeps them right around where they finished last year. I also think they'll be on the outside looking in come playoff time.

And yes, this is my way of tempering my expectations.

 

[Hoop Head]

I expect there to be a trade at some point to help in the front court, especially if they stumble through November and Decemeber. I think anything but the playoffs would be considered a failure by the coaching staff and front office, plus most players. I almost picked the 45 - 49 wins (Playoff Bubble) option and that's possible yet I still them squeaking in the playoffs.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I thought 54 for most of this offseason but as I've started looking at other teams I realize that's probably a little high. I think we've improved but I was looking at our situation in a vacuum, there are at least 8 teams in the West that can legitimately expect a better record this season. Those wins have to come from somewhere. Right now, I'd guess we'll win 48 games again but this season that should be enough to put us into the playoffs. If we can trade for help at the center spot without disrupting our core (which includes Warren), I think we'll do far better.

Steve

 

[BC867]

OK, here comes a controversial post!

I believe, as I have since IT was signed, that with Goran and IT splitting the Point Guard position and Goran getting some minutes at Shooting Guard, we could win 50, if we could come up with a solid role-playing Center and use Plumlee off the bench.

Odd men out -- Eric Bledsoe and Alex Len. Ironically, both of them with a history of missing time.

Putting aside homerism and Kool-Aid, look at each player involved in the two most crucial positions on the floor -- the "1" and the "5" -- and how too many Point Guards and not one starting calibre Center led us to missing the playoffs last season after we had made it into that circle.

 

[Chaz]

If they can stay healthy, 53

 

[JS22]

50 if they're healthy.

 

[AzStevenCal]

OK, here comes a controversial post!

I believe, as I have since IT was signed, that with Goran and IT splitting the Point Guard position and Goran getting some minutes at Shooting Guard, we could win 50, if we could come up with a solid role-playing Center and use Plumlee off the bench.

Odd men out -- Eric Bledsoe and Alex Len. Ironically, both of them with a history of missing time.

Putting aside homerism and Kool-Aid, look at each player involved in the two most crucial positions on the floor -- the "1" and the "5" -- and how too many Point Guards and not one starting calibre Center led us to missing the playoffs last season after we had made it into that circle.

I don't think that's controversial, I'm pretty sure it's just wrong. The part about lacking a starting caliber center is accurate but you can't support the rest of that comment without using twisted logic. Yes, we were ahead in the race and then lost it once Bledsoe returned but we'd steadily lost our lead for the few months that preceded his return too. And not every opponent is equal.

We closed out the season with a very strong winning percentage against quality opponents but Memphis just did it better. And the only reason we were ahead of them in the first place was due to their injuries. It was actually the two point guards that put us into the playoff chase, one only needs to look at our shoddy performance with Bledsoe missing to realize that fact. Keep in mind we won two-thirds of our games when Eric and Goran both played.

Steve

 

[BC867]

It was actually the two point guards that put us into the playoff chase, one only needs to look at our shoddy performance with Bledsoe missing to realize that fact. Keep in mind we won two-thirds of our games when Eric and Goran both played.

I think the only reason that IT is here is that Bledsoe's actions made it clear that he didn't want to be. But no other team would have him. And now we have three. As the old saying goes, be careful what you wish for.

PLAYER.........PPG........APG
Dragic..........20.3........5.9
Thomas........20.3........6.3
Bledsoe........17.7........5.5

Granted, Eric has the reputation of being the best defensively. Seemingly, when he wants to be.

From a management perspective, I just don't see having our three best players (statistically) occupying the same position is going to work emotionally for any of them.

 

[Phrazbit]

The suns were further behind before Bledsoe returned, they actually gained ground when he came back, and they were within the playoff group when he got hurt. So any claim that we were better by record or standings without him is flat out false.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think the only reason that IT is here is that Bledsoe's actions made it clear that he didn't want to be. But no other team would have him. And now we have three. As the old saying goes, be careful what you wish for.

PLAYER.........PPG........APG
Dragic..........20.3........5.9
Thomas........20.3........6.3
Bledsoe........17.7........5.5

Granted, Eric has the reputation of being the best defensively. Seemingly, when he wants to be.

From a management perspective, I just don't see having our three best players (statistically) occupying the same position is going to work emotionally for any of them.

Thomas was signed very early in the process and the direct and indirect reports from the Front Office all said that they believed that Bledsoe would be back and that it had no bearing on the pursuit of Thomas. And Eric's defense isn't a reputation, look at the advanced stats. He was an exceptional defender - when he played.

I think we have a bit of a logjam but we don't have our best players playing the same position, we have our 3 best players playing the same 2 positions. The logjam occurs with the players behind them but all told we definitely seem to have too much talent at the guard positions. But if it takes an emotional toll on anyone I believe it will be with Green or Goodwin.

There are plenty of minutes for Eric, Isaiah and Goran. They can divide up the 7,872 minutes at the guard spots. Over the course of a season that's 2,624 minutes apiece. The most minutes any of them have ever played was Goran last year and even putting in extra time because of the loss of Bledsoe he still only logged 2,668 minutes.

For me, the issue isn't what we have. I'm thrilled with what we have at the 1, 2 and 3 spots. The problem is what we lack at the 5 and perhaps at the 4.

Steve

 

[Hoop Head]

The lack at center is beyond troubling and even laughable. At this point Plumlee has proved to be a good backup, earning maybe 10-15 minutes a night but beyond that Len has showed nothing warranting playing time, Randolph is a PF and so is Kieff. That is our center rotation. I can't recall the Suns being in a worse spot when it comes to the quality or depth of their frontcourt. Their backcourt could be the best in the league but I don't see how that translates to playoff success without an upgrade at the 4 or 5 spot.

 

[AzStevenCal]

The lack at center is beyond troubling and even laughable. At this point Plumlee has proved to be a good backup, earning maybe 10-15 minutes a night but beyond that Len has showed nothing warranting playing time, Randolph is a PF and so is Kieff. That is our center rotation. I can't recall the Suns being in a worse spot when it comes to the quality or depth of their frontcourt. Their backcourt could be the best in the league but I don't see how that translates to playoff success without an upgrade at the 4 or 5 spot.

Agreed. This doesn't look to be the year for playoff success, just another step forward in the rebuilding process. Whether by trade, draft or development, something has to give at the center position before we can hope to become a contender. Bur I'm fine with where we are, after all we're just a year and a half removed from having the least talented roster in the league. I would have never believed we could have reshaped our future so quickly.

Steve

 

[FutureSuperstar]

I think some people voting, and commenting, are overlooking the fact that IF things aren't working out (specifically with the Suns big men) early on, there will be some sort of trade to improve the front-court ...

So basically if Len/Plumlee play well ... We will have a good record

If Len/Plumlee don't play well or are hurt ... We will still have a good record. That's because the Suns would make the necessary trade to improve the front-court when they have to (and because of all the depth at the guards, a trade can be made without going backward there) ...

 

[AZCrazy]

Thomas was signed very early in the process and the direct and indirect reports from the Front Office all said that they believed that Bledsoe would be back and that it had no bearing on the pursuit of Thomas. And Eric's defense isn't a reputation, look at the advanced stats. He was an exceptional defender - when he played.

I think we have a bit of a logjam but we don't have our best players playing the same position, we have our 3 best players playing the same 2 positions. The logjam occurs with the players behind them but all told we definitely seem to have too much talent at the guard positions. But if it takes an emotional toll on anyone I believe it will be with Green or Goodwin.

There are plenty of minutes for Eric, Isaiah and Goran. They can divide up the 7,872 minutes at the guard spots. Over the course of a season that's 2,624 minutes apiece. The most minutes any of them have ever played was Goran last year and even putting in extra time because of the loss of Bledsoe he still only logged 2,668 minutes.

For me, the issue isn't what we have. I'm thrilled with what we have at the 1, 2 and 3 spots. The problem is what we lack at the 5 and perhaps at the 4.

Steve

What do you see at the 3 that you like? What will be our rotation there in your opinion?

 

[SirStefan32]

What do you see at the 3 that you like? What will be our rotation there in your opinion?

Not going to speak for Steve, but as far as I am concerned, the small forward spot is not anything to worry about.
The Suns have multiple options there:

• To start with, there is PJ Tucker. Not a star, but a solid starter- excellent defender, able to hit an open three-point shot, rebounds well, and seems to be the veteran leader of the team.
  
• With the Suns' three point-guard rotation taking most (if not all) SG minutes, Gerald Green will play a lot of SF.
  
• TJ Warren seems to be doing quite well, and I think he'll be able to step in and give the Suns a solid 5-10 minutes per game.
  
• Suns just made a long-term commitment in signing Marcus Morris to a long extension. In my opinion, it's a big mistake, but the Suns disagree.

Suns are fine at 1, 2, and 3. They are terrible at 4 and 5.

 

[AzStevenCal]

What do you see at the 3 that you like? What will be our rotation there in your opinion?

Not going to speak for Steve, but as far as I am concerned, the small forward spot is not anything to worry about.
The Suns have multiple options there:

• To start with, there is PJ Tucker. Not a star, but a solid starter- excellent defender, able to hit an open three-point shot, rebounds well, and seems to be the veteran leader of the team.
  
• With the Suns' three point-guard rotation taking most (if not all) SG minutes, Gerald Green will play a lot of SF.
  
• TJ Warren seems to be doing quite well, and I think he'll be able to step in and give the Suns a solid 5-10 minutes per game.
  
• Suns just made a long-term commitment in signing Marcus Morris to a long extension. In my opinion, it's a big mistake, but the Suns disagree.

Suns are fine at 1, 2, and 3. They are terrible at 4 and 5.

Other than the bolded parts, this is basically how I would have answered AZCrazy's question. I'd also add that Goodwin can help out at the 3 too in some lineups. Most of his value would likely come when we wanted to shore up our defense and put some pressure on them.

As for the bolded parts, I think at worst that Marcus will fall a little short of his salary. It's just not all that much money and it will look like much less in a year or two.

Plumlee could be a decent backup center which obviously leaves us in a scary position having to start him. But perhaps the bigger problem lies with whether Markieff can fill the role we need him to. I have every confidence that he would be a solid starting power forward for most teams but we've locked ourselves into a specific playing style and it requires that either the 4 or the 5 pull their defender well away from the basket. He has not shown the ability to do that and when we tried to use him this way in the past he has struggled (understatement).

All told I wouldn't say we are terrible at the 4 and the 5 positions but we certainly have a fair chance to be the weakest in the league. Even if things work out to the high side for each of these guys, we're probably not going to be better than bottom third. So, regardless of how it goes, we have real issues with our bigs.

Steve

 

[Mainstreet]

I believe I earlier predicted the Suns would win 54 games. If I am able to change my prediction slightly I would like to put the Suns in the 50-53 win bracket.

My concern is at the center position.

 

[Cheesebeef]

48 wins

 

[FutureSuperstar]

My Prediction is 53 wins (4th - 6th seed) ...

 

[95pro]

I went less than 45. I don't expect plumlee to give a steady dose of what he did at the beginning of last season. Len, eh...

Doesn't seem like we have the 5's to take us to the next step.