History tells us the NFL is terrible at evaluating QB's

[moklerman]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ating-quarterbacks-means-2018-draft-prospects

This is a long article so I'm just posting the link. Since the Cardinals are likely in the market for a QB, it's something to read. To me, it just illustrates what most of us have already figured out. Every QB is going to have 10 different opinions from 10 different people.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I 100% agree with this article.

A QB is matter of opinion. Could care less what people have been saying, Lamar Jackson at #15 is the tree I have been barking up since the beginning and it won't change.

 

[moklerman]

I 100% agree with this article.

A QB is matter of opinion. Could care less what people have been saying, Lamar Jackson at #15 is the tree I have been barking up since the beginning and it won't change.

I think I understand why you'd want him but the history of that type of QB isn't good IMO. Injury and/or flame-out are just too likely for my tastes.

 

[BW52]

Fact is that there is NOT a single QB in this draft who is a sure thing.The flaws and positives have been argued/discussed/debated multiple times by nearly every fan here and every so-called 'expert' ,ex-scouts,ex-players,ex-GMs,EX-Coaches etc;.The only sure fact out of all this is that nobody will know who was the right pick/choice until several years down the road.Too many factors are in play;going to team with best system for said QB,having a quality supporting cast,having a GM/Coach/Owner who is willing to exercise some patience willing to look farther ahead than the end of their nose.Coachability.Staying injury free(how many QBs have gotten major injuries in practice?).Another factor is to consider where the player is going to play .Green Bay or Tampa Bay...weather extremes can make difference also.Just so many factors to consider large and small.

 

[Chopper0080]

Fact is that there is NOT a single QB in this draft who is a sure thing.The flaws and positives have been argued/discussed/debated multiple times by nearly every fan here and every so-called 'expert' ,ex-scouts,ex-players,ex-GMs,EX-Coaches etc;.The only sure fact out of all this is that nobody will know who was the right pick/choice until several years down the road.Too many factors are in play;going to team with best system for said QB,having a quality supporting cast,having a GM/Coach/Owner who is willing to exercise some patience willing to long farther ahead than the end of their nose.Coachability.Staying injury free(how many QBs have gotten major injuries in practice?).Another factor is to consider where the player is going to play .Green Bay or Tampa Bay...weather extremes can make difference also.Just so many factors to consider large and small.

To this point, I do believe you have to understand how a player will succeed, how they will fail, and then make your choice with that in mind.

An example of this would be

Josh Rosen. He succeeds if he is protected, and has an offensive mind that challenges him. He fails if he takes a beating, and if he has a stringent defensive minded coach.

 

[BW52]

To this point, I do believe you have to understand how a player will succeed, how they will fail, and then make your choice with that in mind.

An example of this would be

Josh Rosen. He succeeds if he is protected, and has an offensive mind that challenges him. He fails if he takes a beating, and if he has a stringent defensive minded coach.

Very good point Chopper.After all the factors and educated projections it is still sometimes left to chance and luck and how the ball bounces and how the person handles those things.

 

[Chopper0080]

Very good point Chopper.After all the factors and educated projections it is still sometimes left to chance and luck and how the ball bounces and how the person handles those things.

Absolutely. You have to understand the environment you are putting these guys into. Tom BRady isn't Tom Brady if his head coach wasn't the type who believes that everyday is a competition and no player is safe from harsh critique.

It's like Baker Mayfield. He falls on his face if he can't learn to be more mature and if you don't surround him with weapons. So, if you are going to draft Mayfield, you better have a strong locker room, and have guys who he can use to offset his limited physical ability.

 

[BW52]

Absolutely. You have to understand the environment you are putting these guys into. Tom BRady isn't Tom Brady if his head coach wasn't the type who believes that everyday is a competition and no player is safe from harsh critique.

It's like Baker Mayfield. He falls on his face if he can't learn to be more mature and if you don't surround him with weapons. So, if you are going to draft Mayfield, you better have a strong locker room, and have guys who he can use to offset his limited physical ability.

So true.Got to be right team,right scheme,right coach etc; for any of these QBs.
This conversation is making me really wonder at the reasoning /logic used by SK making his draft picks.
Quite often we have heard that the Cards FO/management won`t take a player with a character/badboy/questionable past behavior issues.Yet Matthieu was drafted,Nkemdiche who had a lot of issues off field although Nkemdiche was rated fairly well.So what we have heard over the years does not seem to be set in stone.Cards will take a chance on questionable character/maturity etc issues if the FO feels its tolerable or fixable.As some also have pointed out Sk does like his project players.I guess the point i am trying to say is there is really no set in stone pattern to figure concerning SK/Cards draft intent.I could be wrong but the only sure thing that will happen will be many fans will be wondering WTH is he drafting that guy for?I am sure there will be a head scratcher or two.

 

[Jetstream Green]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ating-quarterbacks-means-2018-draft-prospects

This is a long article so I'm just posting the link. Since the Cardinals are likely in the market for a QB, it's something to read. To me, it just illustrates what most of us have already figured out. Every QB is going to have 10 different opinions from 10 different people.

Let me help you out with the title, it should read "it's difficult to evaluate a quarterback about to play in the NFL"

 

[NJCardFan]

It's difficult to evaluate a QB because of the level of play between the NFL and college. QB's like Andrew Ware or David Klingler were over evaluated because they looked great against 2nd tier division 1 schools or some were simply system QB's like anyone who ever played for Florida. Some were just plain talented and showed it when they got to the NFL. Take Neil Lomax. I believe he was under-evaluated by the NFL because he went to a division 2 school but once he got to the NFL, he showed he was built for the game and not just a system QB(run and shoot at the time) then you have those who are over-evaluated because where they go to school. How QB's from Notre Dame are rated so high is beyond me.

 

[Jetstream Green]

It's difficult to evaluate a QB because of the level of play between the NFL and college. QB's like Andrew Ware or David Klingler were over evaluated because they looked great against 2nd tier division 1 schools or some were simply system QB's like anyone who ever played for Florida. Some were just plain talented and showed it when they got to the NFL. Take Neil Lomax. I believe he was under-evaluated by the NFL because he went to a division 2 school but once he got to the NFL, he showed he was built for the game and not just a system QB(run and shoot at the time) then you have those who are over-evaluated because where they go to school. How QB's from Notre Dame are rated so high is beyond me.

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[gbrim21]

Let me help you out with the title, it should read "it's difficult to evaluate a quarterback about to play in the NFL"

This. The title makes it sound like the NFL is filled with clueless dudes throwing darts at dart boards. Several good posts in this thread about how some guys flourish under certain coaches/schemes. It's hard sometimes to remember these are people and not Madden characters. And that NFL QB is the hardest job in sports, so naturally most of the guys drafted, while very talented, don't become what us fat armchair GM's deem a "franchise guy."

If you've ever been a hiring manager choosing between candidates, you know that it often comes down to a judgement call. Which do you believe will fill the role better? And, you'll never actually know until they've been on the job for a while if you made the right call. No different in the NFL.

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[WisconsinCard]

Very good point Chopper.After all the factors and educated projections it is still sometimes left to chance and luck and how the ball bounces and how the person handles those things.

Not to mention a coach that believes in you to develop and get better. I mean QBs like Alex Smith could have easily been benched early in his career if not for the cash he was being paid. He took several years to develop.

 

[SoCal Cardfan]

The title should have read..... "Evaluating a QB is hard....And has a lot to do with luck... But given the fact that the Cardinals are one of the oldest franchises in the game.... It's apparently impossible for them."

 

[NJCardFan]

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OK, I'll play along. I'll take your Joe Montana and raise you...

Rusty Lisch(Cardinal QB BTW)
Blair Keil
Steve Beuerlein(another Cardinal QB...wasn't totally terrible bot not great either)
Tony Rice
Rick Mirer
Kevin McDougal
Ron Powlus
Jarius Jackson
Carlyle Holiday
Brady Quinn
Jimmy Claussen
Tommy Rees
Everett Golson
Deshone Kizer

When Steve Beurelein is the best of the bunch, you know you pump out garbage QB's yearly.

 

[Harry]

As a guy who’s done this for quite a while I can assure picking a QB is the hardest part of talent evaluation. In the last 20 years the only QBs I’ve called a sure thing would be Eli Manning and Andrew Luck. We are are just making educated guesses, but if that’s the best you’ve got you go with it.

 

[BurqueCardFan]

This is exactly why it would be crazy to want to trade up for one of these guys. This year, there is no consensus top pick or two. It's a crap shoot. At least half of the top 4 will be a bust. Let someone else run that risk.

 

[Capital Card]

How QB's from Notre Dame are rated so high is beyond me.

I get what you're saying, but is there really any school consistently pumping out NFL QB talent?

If you look at the top 5 QB's over the past 20 or so years, how many of them came out of the same program.

Not a lot of common ground, with Boston College providing the most (3) dating back to the Doug Flutie days.




Tom Bradey - Michigan
Nick Foles - Arizona
Dak Prescott - Mississippi State
Matt Ryan - Boston College
Ben Roethlisberger - Miami, OH
Carson Wentz - North Dakota State
Andrew Luck - Stanford
Drew Brees - Purdue
Russell Wilson - NC State / Wisconsin
Philip Rivers - NC State
Alex Smith - Utah
Aaron Rodgers - Cal
Cam Newton - Auburn
Carson Palmer - USC
Eli Manning - Old Miss
Peyton Manning - Tennessee
Tony Romo - Eastern Illinois
Michael Vick - VaTech
Kurt Warner - Northern Iowa
Derek Anderson - Oregon St. (I about puked when I saw he was listed #5 in 2007)
Matt Schaub - UVA
Brett Favre - Southern Mississippi
Trent Green - Indiana
Steve McNair - Alcorn State
Matt Hassselbeck - Boston College
Dante Culpepper - UCF
Jeff Garcia - San Jose St.
Aaron Brooks - Virginia
Rich Gannon - Deleware
Donovan McNabb - Syracuse
Jake Plummer - ASU (had to throw him in here)
Randall Cunningham - UNLV
Vinnie Testaverde - Miami
Steve Young - BYU
John Elway - Stanford
Doug Flutie - Boston College

 

[NJCardFan]

It's not about which school pumps out the best QB, it's the schools who's QB's are consistently rated high. Florida, USC, Notre Dame for years had their QB's rated high or who were even given the Heisman but once in the NFL were horrible busts. Take USC, especially in recent years. Only Carson Palmer was worth anything. The rest, garbage so this rabid want for Darnold is a real head scratcher to me.

 

[Chopper0080]

I'm not sure how much luck is involved, but again, many front offices in the NFL lack self awareness. They fail to understand the environment that they are bringing the player into which then leads the environment into impacting the players chances of success.

An example of this would be the Broncos trading back with the Bills and then selecting Lamar Jackson at #12. This would be a very poor move for Denver because they have a defensive minded coach who is likely to be fired if the Broncos have another bad season. If this happens, then you have Lamar Jackson, who already has a steep learning curve, having to learn a second offense in his second year as a pro. That doesn't even factor in how the next coach would view him. However, if the Broncos traded back and selected Baker Mayfield, it is a less risky move. Baker's experience and accuracy make it easier for him to assimilate into another offensive scheme because his skill set is less unique.

It is a reason that drafting a RB in the top 10 isn't always a bad idea, but also isn't always a good idea. It really comes down to usage. If your plan is to use him in a way that is not dependent upon game flow or situation, then take a RB who can do everything in the top 10. However, if his role or usage will be limited based on roles or game flow, taking a RB in the top 10 is a very poor decision.