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Every fantasy football draft is won by the players you refuse to pick as much as the ones you take. The quarterback position might feel like it’s the deepest it has ever been in 2026. However, QB busts are peppered throughout the NFL.
Paying a premium for a big name is one of the fastest ways to build a losing roster. A fantasy football bust is not a bad player. It is a good player whose draft cost already prices in his best-case scenario, leaving you no room for profit and all the downside.
These four quarterbacks are the biggest fantasy football bust candidates at their current price, and you should let someone else in your league take the gamble.
More fantasy football content: QB sleepers | RB sleepers | WR sleepers | TE sleepers
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) may be running less in 2026, which should be a big red flag for fantasy football managers.
Lamar Jackson is going off the board as the QB2 with a 34th overall average draft position, and that price assumes the 2024 version shows up again. That version is not walking through the door. In his first six seasons as a full-time starter, Jackson averaged 10 rushing attempts and 63 rushing yards per game.
In 2025, Jackson averaged 5.2 rushing attempts and 26.8 rushing yards per game. That’s a steep decline, roughly half of his career workload on the ground. That collapse is the entire reason he plummeted from fantasy QB1 in 2024 to QB20 in total scoring last season. Only good for QB16 in points per game.
The two-time MVP missed four games with hamstring and back problems. He also played through knee, ankle and toe issues that almost certainly dragged down his rushing volume. When asked whether he would keep running less in 2026, the 29-year-old dual-threat passer was noncommittal. He said he would do “whatever it takes to win.” Baltimore has every incentive to protect a quarterback whose cap hit jumps to $74.5 million and who is negotiating a new deal.
A pass-first Jackson is a fine real-life quarterback and a massive fantasy football bust risk, because his ceiling was always built on the carries the Ravens now seem determined to take away. Drafting him at the top of the position means paying for legs he may no longer use.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) may be one of the best to ever do it, but fantasy football managers should exercise extreme caution.
Patrick Mahomes has quietly become one of the safest fantasy football bust picks on the board. The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback has failed to reach 4,000 passing yards in each of the last two seasons. In 2025, he posted career-worsts with 3,587 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and a 62.7 completion percentage. Then he added a torn ACL and LCL, which ended his year in Week 15. That tied the worst fantasy finish of his career as a starter, a QB11.
Every year Mahomes climbs draft boards purely on name recognition. His current QB14 ADP at pick 108 will keep rising as camp hype builds. The main problem, though, is the roster around him.
Kansas City did not add a single new receiver of note and still leans on Rashee Rice, who is one misstep away from a suspension. Instead, the Chiefs brought in running back Kenneth Walker III and drafted more backfield help. This should signal a shift to a more run-heavy plan designed to take pressure off a quarterback coming off major knee surgery. Mahomes set a career high with 422 rushing yards in 2025, and that scrambling was his saving grace for fantasy. Coming off a torn ACL, betting on that same mobility is a bet against medicine.
A quarterback with no receiver upgrades, a run-first script and a surgically repaired knee is the definition of a bust hiding behind a famous name.
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) rushes the ball against the Minnesota Vikings during the first half at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
Jayden Daniels is the QB5 at pick 64, and that price ignores everything that happened last year.
The Washington Commanders quarterback played just seven games in 2025 thanks to a bevy of injuries. He was not good when he did play, throwing for 1,262 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions while finishing as the QB33 overall. Managers are not drafting that season. They are drafting the 2024 rookie who racked up 3,568 passing yards, 891 rushing yards and 31 total touchdowns, and paying full price for it.
Two things stand in the way of that rebound. First, Daniels is a 210-pound running quarterback whose entire fantasy edge comes from his legs, and Washington has hinted it will be more conservative with his carries after watching him get hurt repeatedly. Take away the rushing volume, and you take away the ceiling that justifies a top-five quarterback cost. Second, the supporting cast is thin.
Outside of Terry McLaurin, the Commanders did almost nothing to upgrade the pass-catchers, and the offensive line enters the year with real questions. A new offensive coordinator, David Blough, replaces Kliff Kingsbury, adding scheme uncertainty on top of the health and roster concerns.
The dual-threat upside is still there, but so is the injury history. At QB5, you are paying for the ceiling while inheriting all of the risk. That gap, or lack thereof, is where a fantasy football bust is born.
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) against the Seattle Seahawks during Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Drake Maye finished as the fantasy QB2 in 2025 and lost the NFL MVP by one first-place vote, and now he is the QB3 off the board inside the top 55 picks. Before you pay that, ask one question: can he do it again against a completely different schedule?
The New England Patriots had the easiest strength of schedule in the league last season, avoided every top-10 scoring defense and feasted on eight games against bottom-nine units. The 23-year-old passer put up 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns behind that soft slate.
That path of least resistance is gone. Winning the AFC East hands New England a first-place schedule. The Patriots now carry the fifth-hardest strength of schedule for passing in 2026. They’ll face Pittsburgh, Seattle and the defenses of the NFC North and AFC West.
New England was also 23rd in pass plays per game last season and returns a run-heavy identity with TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, which caps the passing volume even with A.J. Brown now in the fold. Maye is a genuinely good quarterback, and the arrow points up on his career.
As a fantasy football investment at QB3, he is a bust risk because you are drafting a career year built on the softest schedule in modern history and asking him to repeat it against one of the hardest. The safer play is to let a manager two picks ahead of you pay the tax.
Continue reading...
Paying a premium for a big name is one of the fastest ways to build a losing roster. A fantasy football bust is not a bad player. It is a good player whose draft cost already prices in his best-case scenario, leaving you no room for profit and all the downside.
These four quarterbacks are the biggest fantasy football bust candidates at their current price, and you should let someone else in your league take the gamble.
More fantasy football content: QB sleepers | RB sleepers | WR sleepers | TE sleepers
Lamar Jackson bust warning: rushing floor is gone
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Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) may be running less in 2026, which should be a big red flag for fantasy football managers.
Lamar Jackson is going off the board as the QB2 with a 34th overall average draft position, and that price assumes the 2024 version shows up again. That version is not walking through the door. In his first six seasons as a full-time starter, Jackson averaged 10 rushing attempts and 63 rushing yards per game.
In 2025, Jackson averaged 5.2 rushing attempts and 26.8 rushing yards per game. That’s a steep decline, roughly half of his career workload on the ground. That collapse is the entire reason he plummeted from fantasy QB1 in 2024 to QB20 in total scoring last season. Only good for QB16 in points per game.
The two-time MVP missed four games with hamstring and back problems. He also played through knee, ankle and toe issues that almost certainly dragged down his rushing volume. When asked whether he would keep running less in 2026, the 29-year-old dual-threat passer was noncommittal. He said he would do “whatever it takes to win.” Baltimore has every incentive to protect a quarterback whose cap hit jumps to $74.5 million and who is negotiating a new deal.
A pass-first Jackson is a fine real-life quarterback and a massive fantasy football bust risk, because his ceiling was always built on the carries the Ravens now seem determined to take away. Drafting him at the top of the position means paying for legs he may no longer use.
Patrick Mahomes is a bust waiting to happen
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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) may be one of the best to ever do it, but fantasy football managers should exercise extreme caution.
Patrick Mahomes has quietly become one of the safest fantasy football bust picks on the board. The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback has failed to reach 4,000 passing yards in each of the last two seasons. In 2025, he posted career-worsts with 3,587 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and a 62.7 completion percentage. Then he added a torn ACL and LCL, which ended his year in Week 15. That tied the worst fantasy finish of his career as a starter, a QB11.
Every year Mahomes climbs draft boards purely on name recognition. His current QB14 ADP at pick 108 will keep rising as camp hype builds. The main problem, though, is the roster around him.
Kansas City did not add a single new receiver of note and still leans on Rashee Rice, who is one misstep away from a suspension. Instead, the Chiefs brought in running back Kenneth Walker III and drafted more backfield help. This should signal a shift to a more run-heavy plan designed to take pressure off a quarterback coming off major knee surgery. Mahomes set a career high with 422 rushing yards in 2025, and that scrambling was his saving grace for fantasy. Coming off a torn ACL, betting on that same mobility is a bet against medicine.
A quarterback with no receiver upgrades, a run-first script and a surgically repaired knee is the definition of a bust hiding behind a famous name.
Jayden Daniels: one healthy year does not erase injury risk
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Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) rushes the ball against the Minnesota Vikings during the first half at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
Jayden Daniels is the QB5 at pick 64, and that price ignores everything that happened last year.
The Washington Commanders quarterback played just seven games in 2025 thanks to a bevy of injuries. He was not good when he did play, throwing for 1,262 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions while finishing as the QB33 overall. Managers are not drafting that season. They are drafting the 2024 rookie who racked up 3,568 passing yards, 891 rushing yards and 31 total touchdowns, and paying full price for it.
Two things stand in the way of that rebound. First, Daniels is a 210-pound running quarterback whose entire fantasy edge comes from his legs, and Washington has hinted it will be more conservative with his carries after watching him get hurt repeatedly. Take away the rushing volume, and you take away the ceiling that justifies a top-five quarterback cost. Second, the supporting cast is thin.
Outside of Terry McLaurin, the Commanders did almost nothing to upgrade the pass-catchers, and the offensive line enters the year with real questions. A new offensive coordinator, David Blough, replaces Kliff Kingsbury, adding scheme uncertainty on top of the health and roster concerns.
The dual-threat upside is still there, but so is the injury history. At QB5, you are paying for the ceiling while inheriting all of the risk. That gap, or lack thereof, is where a fantasy football bust is born.
Drake Maye bust risk: schedule that made him a star is gone
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New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) against the Seattle Seahawks during Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Drake Maye finished as the fantasy QB2 in 2025 and lost the NFL MVP by one first-place vote, and now he is the QB3 off the board inside the top 55 picks. Before you pay that, ask one question: can he do it again against a completely different schedule?
The New England Patriots had the easiest strength of schedule in the league last season, avoided every top-10 scoring defense and feasted on eight games against bottom-nine units. The 23-year-old passer put up 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns behind that soft slate.
That path of least resistance is gone. Winning the AFC East hands New England a first-place schedule. The Patriots now carry the fifth-hardest strength of schedule for passing in 2026. They’ll face Pittsburgh, Seattle and the defenses of the NFC North and AFC West.
New England was also 23rd in pass plays per game last season and returns a run-heavy identity with TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, which caps the passing volume even with A.J. Brown now in the fold. Maye is a genuinely good quarterback, and the arrow points up on his career.
As a fantasy football investment at QB3, he is a bust risk because you are drafting a career year built on the softest schedule in modern history and asking him to repeat it against one of the hardest. The safer play is to let a manager two picks ahead of you pay the tax.
Continue reading...
