Cardinals Economics - Kyler and the Future

[BritCard]

I'm not too concerned right now. There is a lot that we can do to free up space and while we lost a bunch of starters I'm not as concerned about the cost of replacing them.

For example, CJ seems like a big expensive deal to resign or replace but he was pretty much none existent outside of game 1. We could, if required, replace CJ's production last year with a mixture of Kennard and a rookie. Without the defense losing much in tangible assets.

While Conner had a good year TD wise his actual rushing production was mediocre as far as yards and YPC are concerned. I feel he is easily replaceable.

While Kirk had a good year and is better than many make out he's still highly replaceable. Same with Green. Although I'd rather not have to 2 new WR's having to learn the system.

The guys that for me that are more crucial to hold on are Edmonds, Maxx, Ertz, McCoy and Alford.

Just as big of an issue though are the depth and ST guys. There's something like 8-10 of them to replace. Even at vet min that lone is going to be $10m.

Which obviously means Keim will do the opposite.

 

[slanidrac16]

I consider these moves to be reasonable and likely to generate cap space:

Pre June 1st Cuts over 2 million

Devon Kennard $4,858,088

Cuts over 1 million

Andy Isabella $1,126,347

Restructures Max:

DeAndre Hopkins $10,786,667

JJ Watt $9,285,000

Budda Baker $6,643,33

Jordan Phillips $6,660,00

Extensions Max

Rodney Hudson: $7,784,000


So the Cardinals can generate about 40 million in cap space without extending Kyler. You have ample cap space in year 2 and especially year 3 to sign free agents.

So realistically are we now looking at 2023 to have enough cap space to significantly add quality free agents?

 

[slanidrac16]

For reference, we obviously aren't in good shape, but 10 teams are currently above the cap, some teams significantly over -- I'd rather be us than the Saints sitting at $44M over the cap, no solid answer at QB, and just having gone through a coaching change.

I guess it’s one way to look at the shape of this team. We suck but at least we don’t suck as bad as some.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

So realistically are we now looking at 2023 to have enough cap space to significantly add quality free agents?

You can also have low base salaries in 2022 with big escalators in 2023 and especially 2024 when you have tons of money.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

#3 Blow it all up. Then we still have Steve Keim making all those draft picks lol. His drafts are very sad but the worst part is he can't even identify the best OL & that's his college position for crying out loud lol

I am not sure this is serious or not...

 

[gmabel830]

Rodgers just agreed to 4 years/$200 mil

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Rodgers just agreed to 4 years/$200 mil

As predicted.

Kyler's current price is probably 42-45 million. He goes out and plays great next year he will be well over 50 million.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I have now figured out the expected cap rises.

At 4.4 billion a year on it's last TV deal, the cap went up an average of 10 million a year.

The new TV deal is for 10 billion a year for 10 years so we should see an average of 23 million in salary increases each year. Projected cap in 2023 is 224 million. In reality it is probably going to be 237 million or close to another 30 million increase like this last year.

This is how they will pay for Rodgers big contract.

 

[Stout]

As predicted.

Kyler's current price is probably 42-45 million. He goes out and plays great next year he will be well over 50 million.

Or he goes out and does the same thing next season and his price plummets. I think he's afraid of that.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Or he goes out and does the same thing next season and his price plummets. I think he's afraid of that.

Or he decides to sit out of until it gets closer to training camp or longer. Neither party wins in that scenario because they are completely dependent on each other. Sure, public perception will slant away from Kyler, but he will ultimately get is deal this offseason.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Or he goes out and does the same thing next season and his price plummets. I think he's afraid of that.

There is no planet his price plummets and he is on the team. I have already spelled this out.

Minimum money he makes is 40 million a year and that is going up now that a new big contract is in place.

He either gets paid at least 40 million a year
He gets cut
He gets traded

 

[Stout]

Or he decides to sit out of until it gets closer to training camp or longer. Neither party wins in that scenario because they are completely dependent on each other. Sure, public perception will slant away from Kyler, but he will ultimately get is deal this offseason.

I sadly think he will, because we have a lousy FO. If we had a good, sure, confident FO that knew what it was about, he would already know he would have to earn it. He wants it all and he doesn't want to earn it? Then sit, and suffer. We'll play next man up and let you lose money and stew and suffer. Then you'll crawl back and play anyway. In no world will he hold out into the regular season and lose all that money. Certainly, it can lead to negatives in TC and hard feelings, but giving a whiny childlike player everything he wants is begging to be screwed over.

Does anyone legit think KM will think he needs to get better AFTER getting the huge payday? Naw, he'll know he's "arrived" and doing it all the right way. Does he give himself the needed attitude adjustment if he must go out and earn the giant payday? That's uncertain, but at least it gives us a chance and gives him a chance.

 

[Stout]

There is no planet his price plummets and he is on the team. I have already spelled this out.

Minimum money he makes is 40 million a year and that is going up now that a new big contract is in place.

He either gets paid at least 40 million a year
He gets cut
He gets traded

If you're spelling out anything that has a possibility he gets cut, you're nuts. He's not getting cut, and everyone knows it. There's really two options, and we don't need length spelling out:

He gets an extension
He plays under his current deal

With THIS team and THIS crap FO, he's getting an extension and he may never become the player he can be because of it. If we had a savvy FO he would play under his current deal and actually earn his keep.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I sadly think he will, because we have a lousy FO. If we had a good, sure, confident FO that knew what it was about, he would already know he would have to earn it. He wants it all and he doesn't want to earn it? Then sit, and suffer. We'll play next man up and let you lose money and stew and suffer. Then you'll crawl back and play anyway. In no world will he hold out into the regular season and lose all that money. Certainly, it can lead to negatives in TC and hard feelings, but giving a whiny childlike player everything he wants is begging to be screwed over.

Does anyone legit think KM will think he needs to get better AFTER getting the huge payday? Naw, he'll know he's "arrived" and doing it all the right way. Does he give himself the needed attitude adjustment if he must go out and earn the giant payday? That's uncertain, but at least it gives us a chance and gives him a chance.

Absolutely. I don't think it is lip service when he says that he has to get better. I just don't know if he knows HOW MUCH effort that will take.

I also think for Kyler to get better, our front office (drafting) needs to get better.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I sadly think he will, because we have a lousy FO. If we had a good, sure, confident FO that knew what it was about, he would already know he would have to earn it. He wants it all and he doesn't want to earn it? Then sit, and suffer. We'll play next man up and let you lose money and stew and suffer. Then you'll crawl back and play anyway. In no world will he hold out into the regular season and lose all that money. Certainly, it can lead to negatives in TC and hard feelings, but giving a whiny childlike player everything he wants is begging to be screwed over.

Does anyone legit think KM will think he needs to get better AFTER getting the huge payday? Naw, he'll know he's "arrived" and doing it all the right way. Does he give himself the needed attitude adjustment if he must go out and earn the giant payday? That's uncertain, but at least it gives us a chance and gives him a chance.

IMHO, I believe Bidwill, Keim and Kliffy know what they now have in Kyler. They know they are now F'd, as they picked another first-round QB, only to see it blow-up in their faces.
The difference here is that Murray possesses physical gifts Leinart and Rosen didn't. So, Kyler will resemble the joystick QB, make his share of flashy plays and win a bunch of regular season games in the first half of the season.
The Cards are in a no-win situation. They are now forced to choose from a bunch of terrible choices. If it were me, I'd trade his sorry arse, grab a bunch of draft picks and start over once again...because to me, paying this turd $40 Million a season to win a bunch of meaningless games, is far worse than going the trade for picks route...

 

[Stout]

Absolutely. I don't think it is lip service when he says that he has to get better. I just don't know if he knows HOW MUCH effort that will take.

I also think for Kyler to get better, our front office (drafting) needs to get better.

I don't think he knows WHAT AREAS he needs to get better on, or he doesn't want to do the specific work that entails. He needs to be a film rat, he needs to study the game, and he needs to work on his game like Josh Allen did. I think he wants to lift weights, work out, sling the ball around, and just "see the field." Big problem.

While I agree that our FO needs to get hella better, that should have nothing to do with how good KM is. When are we going to expect our stud, star QB to make others around him better?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Again...

His 5th year option is almost 30 million. Franchise 36 million. 2nd franchise 50 million. But that is just current numbers. These will go up for certain.

If at any point he doesn't play to that level he is a free agent AKA cut. If he doesn't play to those numbers he won't be a Cardinal anymore.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I don't think he knows WHAT AREAS he needs to get better on, or he doesn't want to do the specific work that entails. He needs to be a film rat, he needs to study the game, and he needs to work on his game like Josh Allen did. I think he wants to lift weights, work out, sling the ball around, and just "see the field." Big problem.

While I agree that our FO needs to get hella better, that should have nothing to do with how good KM is. When are we going to expect our stud, star QB to make others around him better?

I doubt he doesn't know. If he doesn't, it is on our coaching staff, just as much as Kyler. Why have a QB coach if they don't communicate that to him?

I think he does make his players around him better, just not consistent enough.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Again...

His 5th year option is almost 30 million. Franchise 36 million. 2nd franchise 50 million. But that is just current numbers. These will go up for certain.

If at any point he doesn't play to that level he is a free agent AKA cut. If he doesn't play to those numbers he won't be a Cardinal anymore.

If that happens, or if that was a possibility, I doubt we would have resigned KK/Keim. All 3 of them are bound together, for better or worse.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

IMHO, I believe Bidwill, Keim and Kliffy know what they now have in Kyler. They know they are now F'd, as they picked another first-round QB, only to see it blow-up in their faces.
The difference here is that Murray possesses physical gifts Leinart and Rosen didn't. So, Kyler will resemble the joystick QB, make his share of flashy plays and win a bunch of regular season games in the first half of the season.
The Cards are in a no-win situation. They are now forced to choose from a bunch of terrible choices. If it were me, I'd trade his sorry arse, grab a bunch of draft picks and start over once again...because to me, paying this turd $40 Million a season to win a bunch of meaningless games, is far worse than going the trade for picks route...

I don't think they (specifically Bidwill) see it that way at all. If they did, why would Keim get another extension? Wouldn't he be screwed for the failures as well?

 

[Stout]

I doubt he doesn't know. If he doesn't, it is on our coaching staff, just as much as Kyler. Why have a QB coach if they don't communicate that to him?

I think he does make his players around him better, just not consistent enough.

As has been pointed out by others, there's only so much actual coaching happening in the NFL. Most of it is on the player to improve. KM is locked in on his process, it seems--a process that has proven inadequate--and disproportionately relies on his athleticism and "star power" and doesn't want to change it.

 

[Stout]

I don't think they (specifically Bidwill) see it that way at all. If they did, why would Keim get another extension? Wouldn't he be screwed for the failures as well?

Why would he be if he hasn't been in the past?

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Why would he be if he hasn't been in the past?

True. If Keim came to Bidwill and said that Kyler also isn't his QBoF, I think that might have changed things...

I still think the front office things that Kyler is their guy, and since they do, they have to pay him.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I don't think they (specifically Bidwill) see it that way at all. If they did, why would Keim get another extension? Wouldn't he be screwed for the failures as well?

I think that question has been routinely asked over the past several years... to which I have no response...

 

[Stout]

True. If Keim came to Bidwill and said that Kyler also isn't his QBoF, I think that might have changed things...

I still think the front office things that Kyler is their guy, and since they do, they have to pay him.

I think that's exactly how they think right now, yes.