- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 1,269,698
- Reaction score
- 59
UFC 330 on Saturday in Philadelphia features two title fights — Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry and Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson — with very different dynamics, as three of the four championship competitors excel on the mat, while only one does not. But the striking matchups are similar. Combined strikers and grapplers graph for the full UFC 330 card is posted here.
Let’s break down some actionable spots for the UFC’s seventh numbered event of the year.
(Fightnomics)
Strong striker versus grappler vibes in the main event. Makhachev spends nearly half of all Octagon time on the ground controlling opponents, which is usually enough to win a round outright, while also giving ample opportunity for submissions.
His opponent boasts 80% takedown defense, which is very high, and has spent an abnormally low 11% of Octagon time on the mat, where at least he was in control for slightly more than half of that. Still, that ground mismatch will define how this fight goes, and for how long.
But the wild card here is size. Garry is huge for a welterweight, and Makhachev has only moved up from Lightweight for a single fight against an admittedly less polished overall fighter in Jack Della Maddalena. The real battle will be in the clinch, which is where Makhachev secures most of his takedowns and where Garry is still well above average in defending them.
While in open water, Garry will certainly have the range and power advantage. He also uses a much busier pace, which would suggest winning any minutes while standing. However, busy strikers can also walk into takedowns when they are too aggressive.
The models net out a pass on the moneyline, while believing Makhachev to be the deserving favorite. Admittedly, we’re not factoring in the significant career differences in weight class, which might suggest hidden value on the dog side. The safer option is to expect this to be more competitive than the moneyline suggests, and therefore take the over.
Best bet: Side is an official pass. Over 3.5 rounds for parlays, FGTD at -145
(Fightnomics)
The co-main odds are tighter, and the matchup looks very different. Both fighters show up well on the mat, but Robertson has relied more heavily on her grappling through her UFC career than Dern, despite the latter having superior career grappling credentials.
Dern at times has been a little too willing to show off her striking, with mixed results. There’s less of a chin liability here for Dern against Robertson, which might mean when the ground game cancels out, Dern could get the better of the time spent standing.
But even in a grapple fest, Dern has shown the ability to grind for five rounds, most recently in her title win against Virna Jandiroba. I expect a similarly back and forth match here, but one in which Dern again is edging out more rounds.
Best bet: Dern to win
(Fightnomics)
The fact that Vicente Luque is not yet 35 years old might be the most baffling stat on the card, and yet it’s true. He’s likely to surpass four hours of Octagon time in this fight, having faced a who’s who of welterweights over his decade in the UFC.
He’s now at middleweight, but in this case not really undersized. And if anything, he might pack more power with additional weight, boosting what already looks like a clean sweep of striking metrics in the matchup against Gore.
The ground game isn’t as clearly in Gore’s favor as the stats suggest, even if the fight ends up there. Luque has 10 submission finishes, nearly as many as he’s finished by strikes. Gore has won by guillotine more than any other way, but Luque hasn’t been too aggressive diving for takedowns. I didn’t like this matchup if the odds were breakeven, but at plus money, I’ll take the dog here who has faced tougher talent over the years despite the recent move up in weight.
Best bet: Luque at plus money
Continue reading...
Let’s break down some actionable spots for the UFC’s seventh numbered event of the year.
Islam Makhachev (-340) vs. Ian Machado Garry (+270)
You must be registered for see images attach
(Fightnomics)
Strong striker versus grappler vibes in the main event. Makhachev spends nearly half of all Octagon time on the ground controlling opponents, which is usually enough to win a round outright, while also giving ample opportunity for submissions.
His opponent boasts 80% takedown defense, which is very high, and has spent an abnormally low 11% of Octagon time on the mat, where at least he was in control for slightly more than half of that. Still, that ground mismatch will define how this fight goes, and for how long.
But the wild card here is size. Garry is huge for a welterweight, and Makhachev has only moved up from Lightweight for a single fight against an admittedly less polished overall fighter in Jack Della Maddalena. The real battle will be in the clinch, which is where Makhachev secures most of his takedowns and where Garry is still well above average in defending them.
While in open water, Garry will certainly have the range and power advantage. He also uses a much busier pace, which would suggest winning any minutes while standing. However, busy strikers can also walk into takedowns when they are too aggressive.
The models net out a pass on the moneyline, while believing Makhachev to be the deserving favorite. Admittedly, we’re not factoring in the significant career differences in weight class, which might suggest hidden value on the dog side. The safer option is to expect this to be more competitive than the moneyline suggests, and therefore take the over.
Best bet: Side is an official pass. Over 3.5 rounds for parlays, FGTD at -145
Mackenzie Dern (-230) vs. Gillian Robertson (+190)
You must be registered for see images attach
(Fightnomics)
The co-main odds are tighter, and the matchup looks very different. Both fighters show up well on the mat, but Robertson has relied more heavily on her grappling through her UFC career than Dern, despite the latter having superior career grappling credentials.
Dern at times has been a little too willing to show off her striking, with mixed results. There’s less of a chin liability here for Dern against Robertson, which might mean when the ground game cancels out, Dern could get the better of the time spent standing.
But even in a grapple fest, Dern has shown the ability to grind for five rounds, most recently in her title win against Virna Jandiroba. I expect a similarly back and forth match here, but one in which Dern again is edging out more rounds.
Best bet: Dern to win
Tresean Gore (-155) vs. Vicente Luque (+130)
You must be registered for see images attach
(Fightnomics)
The fact that Vicente Luque is not yet 35 years old might be the most baffling stat on the card, and yet it’s true. He’s likely to surpass four hours of Octagon time in this fight, having faced a who’s who of welterweights over his decade in the UFC.
He’s now at middleweight, but in this case not really undersized. And if anything, he might pack more power with additional weight, boosting what already looks like a clean sweep of striking metrics in the matchup against Gore.
The ground game isn’t as clearly in Gore’s favor as the stats suggest, even if the fight ends up there. Luque has 10 submission finishes, nearly as many as he’s finished by strikes. Gore has won by guillotine more than any other way, but Luque hasn’t been too aggressive diving for takedowns. I didn’t like this matchup if the odds were breakeven, but at plus money, I’ll take the dog here who has faced tougher talent over the years despite the recent move up in weight.
Best bet: Luque at plus money
Continue reading...
