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It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Cubs baseball. Those two 10-game winning streaks feel like they were a long time ago as the Cubs dropped their 10th game in a row Tuesday night, falling 12-1 against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. It’s honestly an impressive amount of variance in their streakiness. The Cubs are in uncharted territory:
There’s a lot of offensive blame to go around, but today I wanted to focus on the hitting fortunes of one player in particular: Moisés Ballesteros. Ballesteros started off the season red hot with a .338/.392/.620 slashline, including five home runs en route to a 183 wRC+ through his first 79 plate appearances in March and April. That’s cooled off considerably with the rookie hitting just .100/.200/.160 with just one home run and a wRC+ of 18 through 59 May plate appearances. Today, let’s take a closer look at Ballesteros’ struggles at the plate, because the real hitter is probably somewhere between these two extremes.
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The good news is this snapshot of Ballesteros’ skills and expected results is pretty positive for the young hitter. It would be nice if the Chase % and Whiff % were a little lower (more on that in a second) but the underlying metrics, including a 90th percentile Hard Hit %, an 11.7% Barrel %, an above league average K% of 18.7% and a similarly above average BB% of 11.2% are all pieces to build and hope on for Cubs fans, so what changed in May?
The below charts make a pretty compelling case that at least in the last 15 games or so, it’s just bad BABIP luck, first up Ballesteros’ 15-game rolling wOBA, BABIP and Hard Hit %:
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This is far and away the closest correlation of three stats, but the Hard Hit rate has recovered in the last 15 games or so and nothing tracks closer to Ballesteros’ actual wOBA than his BABIP. That’s going to be a running trend in these charts. As a reminder, wOBA is a fancy on-base percentage that gives you more credit for extra base hits and BABIP measures your batting average on balls in play, literally, was it a hit or not. BABIPs tend to coalesce around a mean, but that mean is different for different players. Ballesteros currently has a pretty limited sample for his MLB BABIP, last season he ran a hot .349 through 66 plate appearances. He’s currently sitting at a .256 through 138 plate appearances. For reference, during his last two full seasons in MiLB he ran BABIPs of .323 and .315 through full season samples.
So that .256 is quite unlucky relative to Ballesteros’ previous results and it’s not being driven by hard hit rate, at least not recently. What about ground ball rate?
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Adding ground ball rate to the equation helps us understand a bit of the problem, it’s inversely correlated to Ballesteros’ recent results, although it’s a little all over the place early in the season. A number worth keeping an eye on for sure, although maybe not as closely tied to Ballesteros’ overall results as his hard hit rate is.
Last, but certainly not least,
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Last, but certainly not least, we can look at that wOBA and BABIP result correlated with Ballesteros’ strikeout rate. Again, like with his ground ball rate, we can see that when Ballesteros is striking out more, he’s getting worse results.
In the last month, Ballesteros’ BABIP luck has been pretty bad. That appears to be correlated with both an increased strikeout rate and an increased ground ball rate. So I wanted to see if there were possible explanations for either, and as you can see below Ballesteros is seeing a few more breaking pitches as the season progresses. It looks like an adjustment the league is making to him, he’ll need to adjust back:
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The silver lining is that we may already be seeing Ballesteros adjust, just without the results yet. Check out his last 10-games of work (minus yesterday, which did have some weak contact and two strikeouts):
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That’s a lot of hard contact along with more walks that strikeouts. Critically, it’s also a lot of hard contact in the air (admittedly sometimes too high in the air, but in the air).
It’s going to be a season of adjustments for Ballesteros, but I’m cautiously optimistic the young hitter is in the process of figuring out this most recent adjustment. His BABIP in May has been .114, that screams positive regression on the horizon.
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