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Perspective Check: Four teams have more wins than the Cubs, two teams have as many wins as the Cubs. The Cubs enter the All-Star break in the top Wild Card spot. They are now only one loss behind the Braves and five behind the Brewers. They are on pace for 91 wins. A quirk about me, I loathe the All-Star break being the end of the “first half.” Approximately 60 percent of this year’s games have been played. Regardless, the Cubs enter the break playing well and in good position.
Secondary perspective check. As the pendulum swings back and forth, I try to keep us from getting either too high or too low. So we could also note that the Cubs were 27-12 on May 8. They’ve played 57 games since that time. They’ve won 27 more games over that time. But they lost 30. That’s a very long, very mediocre stretch. This cuts both ways. This is that point I’ve made all along. This is what your eyes tell you. This team runs hot and cold. For very long stretches.
This team has a fairly special group of position players and a pretty rough pitching staff. This team is built to reach the playoffs and to be in a decent position, on paper, when they get there. I do not think that their pitching staff will be able to keep up with the damage that will be done to that staff by a talented offensive team. Most of the playoff teams will be talented offensively. It definitely behooves this front office to add real talent at the trade deadline. That’s always a reluctance and prices are high.
I will say, on the one hand, that the silver lining is that it is hard to imagine a healthy pitcher that doesn’t make this staff better. You don’t have to show at the premium store to improve your chances this season. But, are you trying to make sure you get in? Are you trying to win a series or two? Or do you want a parade in November? It’s hard to imagine an intersection of the prospect caliber the Cubs are leading to deal and the kind of haul that would need to be made to have a chance of hoisting a trophy or two.
All of that is probably still a couple of weeks into the future. For now, there was a nice road trip and a solidly B+ first 96 games of baseball. This team definitely shot itself in the foot several times in the first half and was ravaged by injuries. I would hope that this front office spends serious time in the offseason and assesses the causes of this many injuries. I’ve seen some point out that there are an awful lot of injured pitchers for this team that have a track record of being injured. Were those arms properly nurtured? Or were they ridden too hard? Are there things the training staff needs to do better? Does the front office need to de-emphasize the acquisition of these types of players or at least the quantity of these types of players.
Sunday afternoon the Cubs jumped on top early, saw their lead get away, but then bounced back and won a relatively easy one. I like seeing the team weather the adversity. The team accounted for itself well Saturday and Sunday after a couple of rough losses and a slow start Saturday. It looked like the offense was heading back into a funk but they bounced hard. The 2025 Cubs had so much resiliency. We see another one of those indications that something like that is not necessarily a “skill.” They didn’t lose that resiliency in the offseason. Also, it’s easier said than done, but if you want to avoid long losing streaks, hire the best starting rotation in baseball. It’s amazing when you get a decent start every night, how losing streaks don’t really take root. I remember that about the 2003 Cubs. They never really slumped, because they had so much pitching.
Terrific sign of the weekend was Alex Bregman being in the middle of so much of the scoring and hitting a couple of long balls. I thought he hit a few balls on the trip that were really well hit that came up just short of getting out too. So he’s on it pretty good right now. That’s probably the primary reason that I hate to see the break right now. The pitching felt better late in the first half, but I’m sure they can use a reset too. It looks like Jameson Taillon will be an option again shortly, too. Hopefully the time away and time working at the minor league level helps clear some of what has been troubling him too. He did not look major league worthy when last we saw him.
Three Positives:
- Alex Bregman had a three-hit, four RBI day. He scored twice. He had a double and a homer.
- Michael Busch had a couple of doubles early in this one and helped get the scoring going. He drove in one and scored one.
- Kevin Alcántara had a two-run single that felt quite large at the time it occurred. The Cubs had runners on second and third with no outs and bases loaded with one out and then a Dansby Swanson strikeout threatened to have the Cubs come away empty handed, trailing 4-2.
- Obligatory Pete Crow-Armstrong watch: One hit, two walks, and RBI and two runs scored in five plate appearances.
Game 96, July 12: Cubs 8, Reds 4 (54-42)
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Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Alex Bregman (.294). 3-5, HR, 2B, 4 RBI, 2 R
- Hero: Kevin Alcántara (.185). 1-2, 2 RBI
- Sidekick: Michael Busch (.175). 2-4, 2 2B, RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.121). 0-4
- Goat: Pedro Ramírez (-.071). 0-1, BB
- Kid: Carson Kelly (-.065). 0-4, BB, R, DP
WPA Play of the Game: Alex Bregman’s three-run homer in the seventh off of former Cub prospect Pierce Johnson. (.207)
Reds Play of the Game: Eugenio Suárez millionth career home run against the Cubs or something like that. Gave the Reds a two-run lead. (.191)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 95 Winner: Alex Bregman received 51 of 62 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +24
- Carson Kelly +16.5
- Michael Busch +15
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Trent Thornton +12.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Dansby Swanson -11
- Seiya Suzuki -11.5
- Nico Hoerner -12
- Caleb Thielbar -14
Up Next: The All-Star break. Baseball restarts Friday at home against the Twins (48-49). Fangraphs is projecting Shōta Imanaga getting the first game and Matthew Boyd the second. Boyd technically could pitch Friday, but Saturday would be the more typical five days of rest. Fangraphs has the Cubs projected as favorites in five of the six games at home to start post-Break play (Twins and Tigers coming in). It gets tougher after that, so gonna want to start things off hot.
Enjoy the break.
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