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Perspective check: Just four teams with more wins than the Cubs, 91-win pace. For now, I’m just going to keep reminding us. This team has its flaws. We know them intimately because we follow them every day. The rest of the teams, with maybe one or two exceptions, have flaws as well. We don’t know them quite as well because we don’t follow those teams as in depth. Do I think this a top 5 (or even 6) team? Probably not. Though I do believe that their performance to date is fair at about top 5. Even with the slumps in the equation, this team overall has played very well.
Last year the Cubs were fifth in baseball at 92 wins. That was good for the top Wild Card spot. They are on pace for 91 wins. That would get them the top Wild Card spot if everything stayed the same as it is now. So regardless if there are some smoke and mirrors in the results to date, the results are quite good. We all suspect that the team tails off somewhat in the second half due to the large number of injuries. Or if we don’t think they will tail, we at least recognize that there is a distinct possibility of a tail off. So far this team has treaded water through all of the injuries. There is always the chance that they could do so.
As blasphemous as it is to say, Tuesday night was one of my favorite wins of the year. Yeah, 10 walk-offs. Yeah, almost as many games with double digit runs scored, including one with 23. There’s Pete Crow-Armstrong’s cycle game and several other really fun wins. But for me? I’ll take this one. Some timely hitting against a pretty decent pitcher. There was a strong outing by the starter. Hand in hand, that turned a lead over to the bullpen. The pen struggled early, letting the Orioles sneak back into the game. And then the bullpen came together, stacked outs and closed out a win.
There haven’t been a ton of these for the Cubs. A lead handed to the bullpen for the final three innings to protect. To be sure, the pen allowed two runs in three innings. If the starting 10 turned a lot of leads over to the pen and the pen consistently allowed two runs, there wouldn’t be a metric ton of wins. Two runs blows a lot of leads. But they had five to protect and after two early runs out of the pen’s work, they came together and locked it down. Dare I say, the team managed to make a competitive game look a little like an easy win. A good, clean hard fought win. The kind you need to have some of. A win against a good pitcher on a bad team on the road. Check.
What this team hasn’t had a ton of this year are wins based around key contributions from Alex Bregman. Or from Matthew Boyd. Two players with the words All-Star on their resume. They are paid well to be good. One has been healthy and under producing and the other spent time hurt but has under produced when healthy. Tuesday night, the team got strong contributions from both. With Monday’s off day, this week feels a little like it belongs to the second half, rather than being the last week of the first half. This felt like the start of the race to the finish. The kind of win you stack to get into the top spots of the playoffs.
Mission accomplished in the first of the final 72. One might not break it up that way. If you prefer, you could look at it as the 17th win in the last 23 games. Or just plain old 51st win in the 91st game. That’s why I enjoyed this win. At the end of the day, it is a mundane, forgettable win in what is a long season. There won’t be anything particular that stands out down the road looking backwards. They just took care of business. A good day as another day falls off of the calendar.
Go Cubs.
Three Positives:
- I think I’d be remiss if I didn’t start with Matthew Boyd. While the Cubs scored first, they didn’t score right out of the gate. Boyd held the line while they settled in offensively. Six scoreless innings. Very solid.
- Alex Bregman had two hits and two runs batted in. The two runs batted in came in two separate plate appearances. He came through twice with runners in scoring position.
- Miguel Amaya was the table setter supreme. He got the offense going with a two out walk in the third, leading to a run scoring rally that gave the Cubs some momentum. He would score two more times.
- Obligatory Pete Crow-Armstrong update: A pair of singles, one continuing the above mention rally and another driving in a run later. .293/.383/.525 (wRC+ 150) on the year. This was a subpar game. He’s been that good, a two hit, one RBI game is below average (though a tiny positive bump to batting average on the season, it wasn’t enough to raise his on base and his slug actually dropped).
Game 91, July 7: Cubs 5, Baltimore 2 (51-40)
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Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Matthew Boyd (.331). 6 IP, 23 BF, 3 H, 2 BB, 0 R, 7 K, HBP (W 4-1)
- Hero: Alex Bregman (.155). 2-5, 2B, 2 RBI
- Sidekick: Miguel Amaya (.127). 2-3, 2B, BB, 3 R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.147). 0-4, DP
- Goat: Ian Happ (-.062). 0-4
- Kid: Michael Conforto (-.047). 1-4
WPA Notes: Neither Ryan Rolison nor Jacob Webb appears on the goat podium because Rolison dug the hole but Webb allowed the runs, splitting the negative between them. Webb’s is mitigated by getting the third out and preserving the lead. That out was worth .107 and was one of the biggest plays of the night. The Cubs had an 87 percent chance of winning once they escaped that inning. To be fair, it was 93.5% before that seventh inning.
WPA Play of the Game: Adley Rutschman’s two-run single with two outs in the seventh cut the Cubs four run lead to two. (.141)
Cubs Play of the Game: Alex Bregman had an RBI-single with two outs and runners on first and second in the third, for the first run of the game. (.124)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 90 Winner: Javier Assad received 63 percent of the 67 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +21
- Carson Kelly +14.5
- Michael Busch +14
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Trent Thornton +12.5
- Dansby Swanson -9
- Edward Cabrera -9.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Caleb Thielbar -13
- Seiya Suzuki -16.5
Up Next: Game two of the three-game set Wednesday night in Baltimore. Colin Rea (6-5, 4.74) vs. Dean Kremer (1-1, 3.18). Rea is in a bit of a good groove lately, just three earned runs over his last three starts (15.1 IP). That’s what Craig Counsell is looking for from him. Keep the team in the game through five innings. Kremer has made only three starts, two of those were back in April when he was 0-1 with five runs allowed in 11 innings. He made four minor league starts with a 1.83 ERA before coming back to the team. In his return, he won while allowing one run on four hits and a walk in six innings against the White Sox in Baltimore. The time away was due to a right quad strain.
Kremer has been a pretty solid starter for the Orioles for a number of years. He’s 1-1 in his career against the Cubs with a 6.00 ERA in nine innings of work. The most recent of those games was in 2024. Almost two years to the day. Michael Busch and Ian Happ each homered against him that day. For Busch, it was part of a four hit day.
This is another one that is not a gimme. Hopefully, Rea keeps them in it and the team can find a way to win another one and keep this rolling.
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