16 Playoff Scenarios if the Suns win out

[TheHopToad]

OK, since the race is so close, I thought I would map out all of the possibilities for the Suns, providing they win their two remaining games against the Warriors and Blazers.

First some facts and assumptions: The Lakers and Hornets have locked up the #1 and #2 seeds. Although there is a scenario that the Hornets could be involved in a 5-way tie for the #2, they win that multiple team tiebreaker, so barring a Laker loss to the Kings, the Lakers will be #1, and the Hornets will be #2.

Dallas and Denver virtually have #7 and #8 secured, although the order is still up for grabs. Golden State has a very slight chance of getting the #8 seed if they beat Phoenix and Seattle AND Denver loses to Memphis.

That having been established, the 3-6 seeds are up for grabs between Phoenix, Utah, Houston, and San Antonio. Utah is guaranteed no lower than a #4 seed by winning their divison.

Because Utah plays both Houston and San Antonio this week, provided the Suns win both of their games, there are no more than 16 different possibilities for the Western Conference. Most involve the application of multiple team tiebreakers. When more than three teams are tied for a playoff seed (division title not in question), then the first tiebreaker is winning percentage against each other among all tied teams.

The Suns are 2-2 against Houston, 3-1 against San Antonio, and 1-2 against Utah.

The Rockets are 2-2 against the Spurs and 1-2 against the Jazz.

The Spurs are 1-2 against the Jazz.

Here are the sixteen different possibilities if the Suns can take care of business this week, with resulting seeding and home court advantage. Bolded type represents a win, and the resulting teams finishing record is reflected.

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (54-28): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (54-28): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (55-27): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Utah (HCA)
4. Phoenix (HCA)
5. San Antonio
6. Houston
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (54-28): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (55-27): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (55-27): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Utah (HCA)
4. Phoenix (HCA)
5. San Antonio
6. Houston
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (54-28): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (55-27): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (54-28): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Phoenix (HCA)
4. Utah
5. San Antonio (HCA)
6. Houston
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (54-28): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (56-26): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (54-28): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. San Antonio (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Phoenix (HCA)
6. Houston
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (55-27): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (54-28): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (54-28): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Houston (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Phoenix (HCA)
6. San Antonio
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (55-27): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (55-27): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (54-28): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Phoenix (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Houston (HCA)
6. San Antonio
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (55-27): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (55-27): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (53-29): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Phoenix (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Houston (HCA)
6. San Antonio
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (55-27): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (56-26): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (53-29): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. San Antonio (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Houston (HCA)
6. Phoenix
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (55-27): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (54-28): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (55-27): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Utah (HCA)
4. Houston (HCA)
5. Phoenix
6. San Antonio
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (55-27): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (55-27): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (55-27): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Utah (HCA)
4. Phoenix
5. Houston (HCA)
6. San Antonio
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (55-27): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (55-27): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (54-28): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Phoenix (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Houston (HCA)
6. San Antonio
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (55-27): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (56-26): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (54-28): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. San Antonio (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Houston (HCA)
6. Phoenix
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (56-26): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (54-28): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (54-28): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Houston (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Phoenix (HCA)
6. San Antonio
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (56-26): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (55-27): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (54-28): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Houston (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Phoenix (HCA)
6. San Antonio
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (56-26): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (55-27): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (53-29): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Houston (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Phoenix (HCA)
6. San Antonio
___________________________________________

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (56-26): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (56-26): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (53-29): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. San Antonio (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Houston (HCA)
6. Phoenix


Of these possible scenarios, here is the Suns breakdown by seed:

#3. 4
#4. 3
#5. 6
#6. 3

The really good news is that in 11 of the 16 possibilities, the Suns would have home court advantage in the first round.

Of course, if the Suns lose another, it none of this means much and we'll likely secure the #6 and go on the road.

 

[Suns_fan69]

My head just exploded.

Although you've got a few errors in there. Some of these scenarios cannot happen as there are games where the teams play each other and you have both of them winning. Example:

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (55-27): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (56-26): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (53-29): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. San Antonio (HCA)
4. Utah
5. Houston (HCA)
6. Phoenix

I suspect the possible scenarios are actually less than 16.

 

[hsandhu]

Unbelievable work man, but I hate to tell you it looks like you made a few mistakes. In some of your scenarios it looks like you assume houston has 27 losses right now and can get to 28 by losing to utah, they have 26.

I hope it was just a mistake in writing the records and it didn't mess up your scenarios.

 

[TheHopToad]

No, there was some formatting problems with the bold when I copied it over from the Word document I was working in. Should be correct now.

 

[hsandhu]

Ok, yeah it looks right now. You should send this to paul coro or some of the guys on radio.

 

[hsandhu]

http://oldwww.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/sports/articles/0414suns0414.html

Unfortunately, we may have to add the scenario of phoenix losing.


"This is about the Phoenix Suns," D'Antoni said. "I'm sorry about anybody else, but I'll do what we've got to do to make sure Saturday we're ready to go."

Sounds like they are resting people.

 

[TheHopToad]

I forgot to add the breakdown of Suns first round opponents for the 16 possibilities:

San Antonio 8
Utah 5
Houston 3

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

I forgot to add the breakdown of Suns first round opponents for the 16 possibilities:

San Antonio 8
Utah 5
Houston 3

i.e. A 50% chance we face the Spurs the first round?

Im ready!

 

[cly2tw]

i.e. A 50% chance we face the Spurs the first round?

Im ready!

As long as we avoid Utah.

Let's do the update tomorrow after we lose to GS.

 

[WuRaider]

http://oldwww.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/sports/articles/0414suns0414.html

Unfortunately, we may have to add the scenario of phoenix losing.


"This is about the Phoenix Suns," D'Antoni said. "I'm sorry about anybody else, but I'll do what we've got to do to make sure Saturday we're ready to go."

Sounds like they are resting people.

Ha ha, now the the TS has to think of scenarios where the Suns lose both or one game. This is insane, the matchups won't be decided till the very last game. I want Houston but I'm not scared of Utah. If D'Antoni uses Shaq/Amare to pound their soft front court, it should be an easy series.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Ha ha, now the the TS has to think of scenarios where the Suns lose both or one game. This is insane, the matchups won't be decided till the very last game. I want Houston but I'm not scared of Utah. If D'Antoni uses Shaq/Amare to pound their soft front court, it should be an easy series.

If Okur is able to shoot freely from 3 point range, it will be a hell of a series. I feel that we can beat Utah in 5 games, if we can put a handle on Okur. I think it means putting Amare on him, with Shaq on Boozer.

 

[TheHopToad]

I gotta think that D'Antoni will play all the starters their regular minutes these last two games and try to win. That's what he did last year when we had the #2 seed locked up and the last two games had ZERO impact to the playoff race.

I agree that home court advantage may not be that important this year, but if it's right there for the taking, then you shoud go ahead and take it. Plus, if we gain one of the higer seeds then we could possibly gain the HCA for the second round as well if there is an upset in one of the other matchups.

Bottom line is that win or lose, no matter how this week turns out, the Suns will play either play Utah, Houston, or San Antonio in the first round. We should try to be the upper seed if we have the chance. When there are this many unknowns, you should just play to win and sort it out after the fact.

 

[Andrew]

This isn't really a question about the seeding, but since the season ends on Wednesday, by Thursday are we going to get the entire NBA first round schedule?

 

[Darth Llama]

This isn't really a question about the seeding, but since the season ends on Wednesday, by Thursday are we going to get the entire NBA first round schedule?

The schedule will be ready at the end of the last game on Wednesday night.

 

[TucsonDevil]

I hope we can avoid San Antonio the first round and play Houston. Not because I think Houston is a cake walk and San Antonio is impossible, but San Antonio can beat Utah - We Can't! I would rather face the Spurs after they have eliminated the Jazz.

 

[WuRaider]

Ugh, if the seedings remain where they are today, the Lakers will have an easy path to the WCF:

http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html

They will smash Denver, then play Utah. Avoiding NOH, SAS, and the Suns all the way to the WCF.

 

[jandaman]

If Okur is able to shoot freely from 3 point range, it will be a hell of a series. I feel that we can beat Utah in 5 games, if we can put a handle on Okur. I think it means putting Amare on him, with Shaq on Boozer.

And Sloan will make sure, Boozer abuses O'Neal in the pick and roll... Boozer is money from the mid range... sadly. They need to double Boozer.. err.. unlikely... too many shooters..


or just plain Zone....

 

[Griffin]

Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
Houston (55-27): at Utah, vs Clippers
San Antonio (55-27): at Sacramento, vs Utah
Utah (55-27): vs Houston, at San Antonio

3. Utah (HCA)
4. Phoenix
5. Houston (HCA)
6. San Antonio

I mentioned this in another thread yesterday, but I don't believe Houston would have home court in this scenario. I never heard of a situation where a second tiebreaker was applied to determine home court after the seeds were already determined through a (multi-team, in this case) tiebreaker.

From Coro's blog:

If Utah, Phoenix, San Antonio and Houston wound up in a four-way tie, Utah would get the third seed and Phoenix would have the fourth seed and face Houston with home-court advantage.

I'm assuming he means Phoenix would have home court? That's what I think would happen.

 

[TheHopToad]

Ugh, if the seedings remain where they are today, the Lakers will have an easy path to the WCF:

http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html

They will smash Denver, then play Utah. Avoiding NOH, SAS, and the Suns all the way to the WCF.

There's a decent chance that the Lakers may have to face Dallas in the first round. If the Mavs lose to the Hornets Wedneday and the Nuggets beat Memphis, Denver and Dallas will be tied and Denver owns the tiebreaker and would move to the #7 seed, leaving Dallas to play the Lakers.

Not much more of a challenge for LA, but better than Denver.

 

[WuRaider]

There's a decent chance that the Lakers may have to face Dallas in the first round. If the Mavs lose to the Hornets Wedneday and the Nuggets beat Memphis, Denver and Dallas will be tied and Denver owns the tiebreaker and would move to the #7 seed, leaving Dallas to play the Lakers.

Not much more of a challenge for LA, but better than Denver.

That would be crazy if a year after losing to the 8th seed as #1, Dallas goes on to beat the #1 seed as the 8th.

 

[nashman]

^ That would be funny to see the fakers get beat by Dallas

 

[sLapzsHaQ]

But I think, in the west, everyone's a challenge. Look at the Rockets, their role players are getting better and better each day..

 

[dodie53]

i just want the suns to win the championship

 

[hsandhu]

Apparently somebody got this info out to the suns as mike appears to have changed his tune on tonight's game:

"We’re playing," Suns coach Mike D'Antoni said after this morning's shootaround. "Everybody’s ready to go. We want to win. We want to try to play our guys and see what happens. We want to get better as a team and that’s the way to do it."

 

[cly2tw]

So far, Utah is winning the Houston game. But if they lose the last game to Spurs, then it's certain that Spurs get 3rd seed if they also win today vs SAC. Thus, we can't get Houston anyway. In this case, it'd be better for us to try to get HCA as the 5th seed vs Utah by winning both remaining games (and given Houston losing the last one too).