Part of my argument is that a large percentage of the movie going public already has an account so they won't be getting additional subscribers from those people. They're definitely going to have to tighten up sharing even more but they can do that to get new subscribers without buying the WB.While I tend to agree with you. I am certain there is a large portion of the country that never actually goes to the theater.
I used to go a couple times a month but the past decade im down to once or twice a year....or less, as the last movie I saw in theater was Dungeons and Dragons, until I recently went to see F4 and Superman(about a two year gap)...so in my case...Netflix is weighing the difference between 1 or 2 tickets a year and $8 every single month,rather I watch the service or not....so whatever their cut of the box office is..$7 did you say?...so for me $14 a year...or $96 a year in subscription fees.
...also, in an odd coincidence...shortening theater runs will in many areas actually increase ticket sales. For epic type movies the shorter chance to see it on the big screen will motivate many people to go see it now rather than put it off....I cant tell you how many movies I have missed just simply because I put it off a week thinking the movie will still be there..but then the following week it was no longer in theaters in my area(most recently, I have scheduled a trip to see the latest Avatar twice...but rescheduled both trips)....this sets a cultural expectation that the movie will only run on the big screen for X amount of time so I better go see it now. for many movie goers it will change the priority level of a trip to the theater.
however....I dont see how it could help out drama or RomCom movies,...those that dont really benefit from the huge screen or enhanced sound....many more of those will probably go straight to streaming.
Netflix may also further restrict there sharing of service. I have always gotten Netflix from my brother and his wife. The recent restrictions netflix added have made it so my sister in law has to come by and enter a code on my app so I can watch for two weeks....but I already no longer have it on my phone due to the issue of getting codes for both the phone and home TV....if they restrict further I will have to either get my own account or just not watch Netflix...I been mostly doing without since their program quality has dipped quite a bit the past 18 months or so...but the Stranger Things finale had me stressing over the service again, lol.
I might have to change my mobile service to T Mobile so I can get it for free.
If someone doesn't already have an account, are they really going to keep it running all year for the couple WB movies that they want to see? Using your example you could have subscribed for only one month, mid-july to mid-August to see Superman (would have hit july 28th) and F1 (would have hit July 11th). One month of sub fees.
A lot of people, myself included, already do this with them due to the lack of quality or titles I'm interested. Stranger Things got me to sub for a month but I'll be gone again until the next time. They might get another month out of me a year but it wouldn't be year round. I curious to see how the HBO Max subs factor into this too.
FYI, on T-Mobile, they only offer the standard version with Ads in some of their plans. I've been with them for years and never changed my plan to one that included it since the phone plan monthly cost would go up by more than me subscribing to Netflix's highest price tier directly.