Totally_Red
Air Raid Warning!
Trade down and draft the Miami or Utah RT unless Mendoza miraculously falls to us.
Draft Positioning
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Cbus cardsfan
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Caleb Downs is the pick. Accept it.
OP
OP
He suffered a mysterious preseason injury presented as a chest muscle. It seemed more probable to have been an oblique injury which was the reason he missed late season games.
TheCardFan
Things have changed.
If TN wins and we lose, we get the 4th pick.
We can still get the 4th pick if we both lose but need 3 stars for a tie of SOS (first tiebreaker is head to head after that, we we would get 4th) or 4 stars to win SOS and get 4th pick - if I am reading this correctly.
We have no shot to pick ahead of Giants or Jets unless they win.
We can still get the 4th pick if we both lose but need 3 stars for a tie of SOS (first tiebreaker is head to head after that, we we would get 4th) or 4 stars to win SOS and get 4th pick - if I am reading this correctly.
We have no shot to pick ahead of Giants or Jets unless they win.
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schutd
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Dude, you had me completely convinced on Maye. I had never seen him play, but was all in on your line of thinking. Nailed that one.
OP
OP
Website?
Cardinal88
All Star
I tried to post a twitter link but it didn't work so I deleted my post. If you have Twitter, check out the analysis by @AzJace. If someone else can help out and post it. It's kind of a long so I didn't want to do a copy/paste.
Right click on the time stamp, copy and paste here in the box
The site will format it for you
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NFL SOS Tiebreaker Rooting Help | Tankathon
Select an NFL team, and optionally a draft positioning rival, and see who to root for in remaining games for the strength of schedule tiebreaker.
www.tankathon.com
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Bain is wrecking TOSU so far. the other DE has 2 sacks but Bain blew up 2 plays early, on the picksix he made Bain throw around him so he didn't see the CB jump the route. Then on the 2nd sack by Akheem, they doubled Bain which allowed a free runner on the right side so the back had to pick him up and then Akheem got the sack. Both of them are NFL players I prefer Bain because he's bigger and stronger.
TheCardinal
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The website looks like it made a change to the number of “stars” needed, 4/6 to tie, 5/6 to win. This is what agrees with my math, see below for the details:
You can cancel out the games which were common opponents (and the H2H game since this whole thing assumes we finish with the same record). Division opponents who were played twice only cancel out one of the games (for example, TEN played LAR once, which cancels out one of our meetings, but not the other). This removes 8 common games and leaves nine unique games. Right now, our nine unique opponents have 81 wins, TEN’s have 80 wins (lower number gets the higher draft pick).
In week 18 there are several forced outcomes due to H2H games where one team is guaranteed a win (or if they tie, both get a half-win, same difference). For us, there are guaranteed wins for SF/SEA, CRL/TB, putting our SOS total at 83 wins. For TEN, there are guaranteed wins for HOU/IND, DEN/KC, LAC/LV, putting their SOS total also at 83 wins. Our LAR game would have the same outcome as their JAX game (again, since this only matters if AZ/TEN finish with the same record), so we can drop those as well.
This leaves ATL/CIN/DAL/GB for us (we hope they lose) and leaves NE/CLE for TEN (we hope they win). CLE plays CIN, so that one is a double-whammy for one of us (hence, counting as two “stars”).
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ill say this: the new offensive trend has put a renewed emphasis on do-it-all safeties
DVontel
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Has it?
Kyle Hamilton is the best safety in the league, but the Ravens’ defense was awful this year.
AustrianCardFan
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Thanks a lot, that is really helpful! One question I would still have: Given that the Rams have 11 wins but the Jaguars 12, shouldn't that be an "advantage" for us aswell as it should bump the Titan's SOS even more than ours after the last game?
Bain looked worthy of a top 5 pick last night. He was a wrecking machine. I'm not sure any of the OTs are blue chip, top 5 type guys this year.
It's always been my opinion that if you are picking top 5ish....you have to take an elite prospect, at an impact/hard to get position...regardless of need. Qbs are a bit of an exception because they always go higher than maybe they should....but the only QB I like this year is Mendoza...I don't think he makes it to 5, and I'm definitely not high enough on him to trade up. The CBs this year also seem pretty bunched up with no clear #1 guy worth a top 5 pick. WR is a bit too much of a luxury that high...even though we have a major need....and I wouldn't take a RB top 5...probably ever...but certainly not Love, who I think is just ok.
If there is an OT that clearly separates himself and looks like an elite talent ..then I'm going OT. Otherwise I think Bain is the best edge rusher in the draft and should be strongly considered if he's there. Put him on a d line with sweat, nolan, and stills and we have a pretty nice starting point, regardless of who the coach is.
It's always been my opinion that if you are picking top 5ish....you have to take an elite prospect, at an impact/hard to get position...regardless of need. Qbs are a bit of an exception because they always go higher than maybe they should....but the only QB I like this year is Mendoza...I don't think he makes it to 5, and I'm definitely not high enough on him to trade up. The CBs this year also seem pretty bunched up with no clear #1 guy worth a top 5 pick. WR is a bit too much of a luxury that high...even though we have a major need....and I wouldn't take a RB top 5...probably ever...but certainly not Love, who I think is just ok.
If there is an OT that clearly separates himself and looks like an elite talent ..then I'm going OT. Otherwise I think Bain is the best edge rusher in the draft and should be strongly considered if he's there. Put him on a d line with sweat, nolan, and stills and we have a pretty nice starting point, regardless of who the coach is.
TheCardinal
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It is already accounted for in the calculation, which looks not only at games already played, but for presumed future opponents as well (if somehow one of these week 18 games was canceled, like when the player’s heart stopped in the Bills/Bengals game a few years ago, we would have to recalculate everything).
The Ravens defense bounced back after a tough start. They were missing a bunch of starters to injury but got them back later in the year.
When Roquan wasn't playing they were giving up 40 points a game. When he came back they were a real defense again. Its insane the impact a good ILB can have.
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If Bain's there he would be tough to pass up.
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its the difference between necessary but not sufficient
OP
OP
He is an incredible player. Put next to Nolen, they’d be hard to beat. Still I’m not sure you can win in this league without an offense. The Cards desperately need a more balanced team. Even if Campbell stays, Nolen is most likely a late season addition. So next year looks like a slow build at best. All that said I’d probably take Bain. Fix the Oline and hope for a QB in 2027.
