Some Thoughts on QBs

[Chopper0080]

Is that just a function of betting behavior?

Yes and no. Vegas sets lines based on their analytical analysis of the matchup. Their algorithm evaluates roster, match up, fan attendance, coaching and variables. That line is then adjusted based on betting behavior. So Vegas initially set the line at 7 and then early betting behavior moved it to 6.5. Basically, bettors are betting against the original matchup analysis to the point that Vegas moves the line if Vegas determines that it needs counter action.

A lot of people think that Vegas wants to be 50/50 between each betting side and just gobble up the vig when in reality, Vegas will consistently take stands when it feels it is right which puts the ratio less balanced. In the end, Vegas can be wrong but when they set the line with Indiana clearly as the better team, I trust their determination more than people's on this message board who aren't' as invested financially is getting it right.

 

[DVontel]

are slam dunks.

No QB is a slam dunk. It’s all about the development & environment.

 

[Chopper0080]

I don't think there is a huge gap between them. I would be nervous about either one of them as a Cardinal.

That's interesting. The only recent 1st round QBs (since 2015) that I view as clearly better prospects were

Drake Maye (was my favorite. I have learned to like guys who elevate teams)
Jayden Daniels (Worried a bit about his frame and ASU time, but great arm and athleticism)
CJ Stroud (Lack of starts and great supporting cast were the only concerns here)
Trevor Lawrence (He had all of the boxes checked)
Joe Burrow (Lack of great traits but looked really good at LSU and exuded confidence)
Justin Herbert (Elite size and athleticism along with good passing traits. People worried about the offense)
Sam Darnold (The only real issue at the time IMO was his lack of starts)
Deshaun Watson (Was a really good prospect. Good size and traits)
Pat Mahomes (People worried about the gimmick offense and bad decisions but size and traits were really good)
Marcus Mariota (The only knocks on him were that he was quiet and the Oregon offense)
Jared Goff (A solid prospect even though he didn't have amazing traits. Biggest concern is that Cal didn't win a lot of games)

 

[Chopper0080]

No QB is a slam dunk. It’s all about the development & environment.

Especially with what college is producing now days.

 

[KiwiCard]

Is there a world in which if the Giants end the season at No.1 pick, that due to Darts concussions this season and diminished play of late that they Draft Mendoza?

 

[HairZach]

Is there a world in which if the Giants end the season at No.1 pick, that due to Darts concussions this season and diminished play of late that they Draft Mendoza?

The Giants can easily end up with #1 and if they do they will be looking to trade down.

The only reason the GM wasn't fired is because he "hit" on Dart as QB, they won't move on. Watching some of the giants recently Darts play isnt actually diminished despite the bad stats, they're just leaning heavily into the run. From the outside it looks like the coaches arent calling pass plays because they're worried Dart might actually win them a game.

Mendoza isn't really someone I'd be excited about trading up for, he is far from a can't miss star kind of prospect. But if Gannon and company stay they'll feel pressured to take a swing on him.

 

[Chopper0080]

Is there a world in which if the Giants end the season at No.1 pick, that due to Darts concussions this season and diminished play of late that they Draft Mendoza?

I think this is 50/50 in terms of likelihood.

 

[Russ Smith]

Alabama for the 2025 regular season averaged 3.43 YPC on the ground as a team.

Indiana for the 2025 regular season averaged 5.49 YPC on the ground as a team.

The difference in those stats is stark. I’m no Ty Simpson stan, but I do think it is easy to acknowledge Simpson’s margin for error was a lot thinner than Mendoza or even Moore. It should be impossible to run a functional offense with a running game that bad.

That number is a bit misleading, The rB's for the most part are in the 3.9 to 4 YPC area. The reason the rushing number is 3.43 is because Simpson averages .9 YPC for the year and has nearly 80 carries. I assume much of that is running out of the pocket not designed runs but Mendoza for comparison is 3.5 YPC.

Definitely NOT a good running team from Bama this year but the primary difference is QB, Milroe was the leading rusher last year at 4.3 for over 700 yards.

 

[Russ Smith]

I mentioned it a few weeks ago there were rumblings after Darts concussion the coaches were furious with him and telling him he needed to start sliding because he was hurting the team by taking big hits and getting injured so much.

But I doubt that's gone enough that they would draft a QB.

I would expect them to either stay pat and take a DL, or try and move down and get the same DL but I don't think our pick will be high enough to be the team they're moving down with

 

[Stout]

Yes. If you follow the timeline, he tried to do the minimum.

2023.
He lost/let go JJ Watt and Zach Allen.

He added LJ Collier, Kevin Strong, Carlos Watkins, and Dante Stills.

Those additions competed with Jonathan Ledbetter, Leki Fotu, and Roy Lopez.

Obviously, that was a horrible unit.

2024
To solve a horrible DL unit Monti does the following.

Mid FA contracts to Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols. Neither who were considered anything more than average NFL players.

Draft Darius Robinson in round 1 who was most productive in college at EDGE.

These compete vs Stills, Tonga, Naquan Jones, and Lopez.

Predictably, when healthy these two mid FA players make very little impact and Robinson is moved off the EDGE and into a new position.

Another predictably bad group.

2025
Heading into his 3rd year as GM, Monti decides to actually invest in the DL.

He adds FA vets Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell who instantly become the two best players on the line, and drafts Walter Nolen who unexpectedly gets injured.

So, in summary, heading into year 3, Monti finally decided to invest real assets into the DL (multiple) to try and fulfill his goal of building the lines two offseasons prior. A prime example of too little, too late.

All while ignoring the IOL at that.

 

[GatorAZ]

Not trading up for a McCarthy/Penix caliber prospect.

 

[ajcardfan]

There are some fair reasons to prefer Mendoza. Number of starts and height are the two biggest IMO. It's why my argument hasn't been that Simpson is better than Mendoza, but instead that the gap between them is overblown on this board.

I don't think there is a huge gap between them. I would be nervous about either one of them as a Cardinal.

 

[cardpa]

The Giants can easily end up with #1 and if they do they will be looking to trade down.

The only reason the GM wasn't fired is because he "hit" on Dart as QB, they won't move on. Watching some of the giants recently Darts play isnt actually diminished despite the bad stats, they're just leaning heavily into the run. From the outside it looks like the coaches arent calling pass plays because they're worried Dart might actually win them a game.

Mendoza isn't really someone I'd be excited about trading up for, he is far from a can't miss star kind of prospect. But if Gannon and company stay they'll feel pressured to take a swing on him.

Dart did not attempt a pass until 1:44 left in the second quarter and finished 7 of 13 for 33 yards

 

[BooksOrangePlanet]

Dart did not attempt a pass until 1:44 left in the second quarter and finished 7 of 13 for 33 yards

i think the giants are definitely coming back with dart nabers and skat - they'll probably trade back and build the o-line

 

[KiwiCard]

Personally I think the Giants will and should trade back for a haul and strengthen the O Line and prehaps the Interior D besides Lawrence.

However if they go the other route I’d definitely be trying to get Dart.

 

[Chopper0080]

Dart did not attempt a pass until 1:44 left in the second quarter and finished 7 of 13 for 33 yards

Anyone who thinks Dart is a long term solution at QB is kidding themselves. You can't have your QB play that way. Even Gruden told him in the pre-draft process that he needs to protect himself.

 

[PDXChris]

Have there been many solid NFL QB's with only one year of college (starter) under their belt?

Kurt Warner, Cam Newton, Mac Jones and Kyler are the best iof the bunch.

Trubisky and Mark (Inmate 234524) Sanchez are a few others.

 

[ajcardfan]

Anyone who thinks Dart is a long term solution at QB is kidding themselves. You can't have your QB play that way. Even Gruden told him in the pre-draft process that he needs to protect himself.

He probably isn't but the Giants will probably roll the dice on him. It's so freaking hard to find a QB.

 

[Harry]

Worth a read

Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray fallout: What happens when teams move on from first-round QBs?

The QB carousel has started spinning after decisions involving Tagovailoa and Murray.

www.cbssports.com

 

[slanidrac16]

Worth a read

Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray fallout: What happens when teams move on from first-round QBs?

The QB carousel has started spinning after decisions involving Tagovailoa and Murray.

www.cbssports.com

This story almost seems a bit skewed. Sam Darnold 11%?

 

[BulldogCard]

No qb will make it in this front office culture.

 

[daves]

This story almost seems a bit skewed. Sam Darnold 11%?

With the team that drafted him.

 

[oaken1]

Even though the loss of Saban has had an affect Bama still has one of the easiest recruiting jobs in the country...certainly better than Indiana.
The portal changes that some..allowing star players to shop their services. But most of the guys on the team ain't that...they get a scholarship and play for the same college every year.
So the mean average talent on Bama is certainly better than on Indianas roster...though Indiana coaching might be doing a better job...a portion of their success can be attributed to Mendoza elevating the guys around him.

 

[BulldogCard]

Maybe Saban is the Cards salvation. He didn't do well in MIA but that was a long time ago. It would be Arianesque. It starts from the top, and a good HC is a good start. These are the results we got when the boss said go ahead, I'll let you pick. They could a staff, coordinators away from having the pieces. Then it would cycle to heck even the Cards will have a good every once in a while. Maybe a Saban woos a Mendoza because of his credentials; making a trade distantly possible.

 

[slanidrac16]

We are not getting Mendoza or Moore. I doubt that Simpson will be available either.
Every year we go into the combine and these qb’s shine in shorts and interviews.
We don’t operate like other club’s especially the ones in our division. We are passive.
We will stand pat and pray or we will trade down and play the “ smartest guy in the room”.
Not being Debbie Downer just looking at our history.