Week 2 2022: Heroes and Goats

[TJ]

It's settled law here at H&G that the outcome of a game decided by 7 points or fewer is essentially random. Because of this, over the long term the results will regress toward a mean of around .500. How random was the result of this game? To force overtime, the Cards needed to...
...Convert a 4th and 4...
...Convert a 2-point conversion...
...Convert three additional fourth downs on the ensuing drive...
...Convert a second two point conversion...
...All within the last 8:30 of the fourth quarter!

The result is certainly exciting, and you'd rather come out on the winning side of this equation than the losing side, but it doesn't tell us anything. I generally try and stay away from The Discourse post-game because people get mad, but people that are super-amped about this outcome are engaging in Loser Talk. Lions fans are excited about close wins against second- or third-tier opponents. We should be just as nervous about the result of this game as we were against Kansas City.

Heroes

Vance Joseph, Defensive Coordinator. Here's Vegas' second-half drive chart:

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That's 4.75 yards per play. Pretty impressive halftime adjustments for your boy.

Zach Allen, Defensive End. Allen is a surprisingly controversial figure on this board, but he is the leader of the defensive line unit that held Los Angeles Oakland Las Vegas to 3.8 YPC for the game and 2.67 YPC after the halftime break.

Greg Dortch, Wide Receiver. 4/4 receiving with 55 yards and a TD. It's wild to think that our most consistent offensive player right now is a 24 year-old undrafted free agent on his fifth team.

Goats

A.J. Green, Wide Receiver. MY GUY. Three receptions for sixteen yards on seven targets. I get that you're an old dude, but you have to fill the Larry Fitzgerald Third Down Chain-mover role better than this.

Zeke Turner, ILB. MY DUDE. You played one snap with the defense and it was an embarrassing coverage error.

Kyler Murray, Quarterback. Greatness is the consistent exhibition of excellence. Great players don't have to come back from 20-0. Great players don't go punt-punt-pick-punt in their first four possessions. Kyler's inability to show up and play well puts the Cards in a consistent hole that they have to struggle out of. Look how wide open this dude is three seconds into the first 2-point conversion:

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Jake Plummer syndrome. Can only see half the field and if nothings there, bails and runs

 

[kerouac9]

Absolute LOL at people truthering that Darrel Williams isn't wide open here.

 

[Chopper0080]

lol @ recommending throwing the ball to AJ after that performance on Sunday

lol That we can agree on and I only saw the last drive and overtime in regards to the second half.

 

[Chopper0080]

I get @kerouac9 point. Should you be a hero for digging yourself out of a hole you created? Even when being heroic like the big 2 point run it was only because he missed a wide open receiver in the back of the EZ that he stared down and still didn't pass too.

How often are we going to win relying on crazy low odds crap like that? Give me a QB that makes the simple pass to the back of the EZ over crazy scrambles any day.

I agree as well. How much credit do you get for cleaning up the messes you help create? None of that takes away from the comeback but Kyler needs to get to a point where he starts fast enough to not put himself and the team in that hole. One of the reasons he has so many games where the Cardinals get blown out.

 

[Russ Smith]

Absolute LOL at people truthering that Darrel Williams isn't wide open here.

At the point in the pic he is but my point is not that he's not open it's that it's obvious why Kyler didn't throw him the ball he's not on that read yet he's looking middle where he has 2 guys. By the time he gets off middle he starts to move so then that throw to Williams is hard.

Yes there are QB's in the NFL who would have said ok middle is too tight and looked right quicker and seen Williams. 100%.

 

[BritCard]

At the point in the pic he is but my point is not that he's not open it's that it's obvious why Kyler didn't throw him the ball he's not on that read yet he's looking middle where he has 2 guys. By the time he gets off middle he starts to move so then that throw to Williams is hard.

Yes there are QB's in the NFL who would have said ok middle is too tight and looked right quicker and seen Williams. 100%.

At this point in the pick he's already looked off Williams. That was the first read. He was open then too.

 

[Russ Smith]

At this point in the pick he's already looked off Williams. That was the first read. He was open then too.

Ok I just watched the replay online and you're right he does look that way and then chooses not to throw it although I don't know if he's looking to Williams or to Brown.

 

[Shane]

Ok I just watched the replay online and you're right he does look that way and then chooses not to throw it although I don't know if he's looking to Williams or to Brown.

If he has good field vision he should see it regardless

 

[BritCard]

If he has good field vision he should see it regardless

It's 2 receivers and 1 defender. If he can't see that he should go play baseball.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

If he has good field vision he should see it regardless

Some of you are too much. Would most people consider that open? Yes. Should he have thrown it, arguable. That is a back pylon throw at best with everything on the line. It is a low probability throw.

I can't believe that this much debate was done on a positive play for the Cards when they won the game. Oh wait, yeah I can. It's Kyler.

 

[GoldGloveschmidt]

Some of you are too much. Would most people consider that open? Yes. Should he have thrown it, arguable. That is a back pylon throw at best with everything on the line. It is a low probability throw.

I can't believe that this much debate was done on a positive play for the Cards when they won the game. Oh wait, yeah I can. It's Kyler.

You can freeze frame any play of any game and find a place where the QB could hypothetically go, ignoring the context of how players are moving at that time, where defenders are headed, what pressure he's avoiding, what throwing lane he has, where he's at in the progression, etc. Bottom line is Kyler carried the team on his back for this win and people just want to find ways to validate their hysterical Blaine Gabbert or Kevin Kolb takes.

 

[BritCard]

Some of you are too much. Would most people consider that open? Yes. Should he have thrown it, arguable. That is a back pylon throw at best with everything on the line. It is a low probability throw.

I can't believe that this much debate was done on a positive play for the Cards when they won the game. Oh wait, yeah I can. It's Kyler.

I mean, that's not a low probability throw. That's a throw that any QB in that situation would say "Thank you god for this glorious opportunity". That's as good as it gets on a 2 point conversion with a condensed field. That's a throw I would expect Josh Rosen to make. It's really not hard at all.

It's certainly much higher odds than running around for 28 seconds.

 

[kerouac9]

Some of you are too much. Would most people consider that open? Yes. Should he have thrown it, arguable. That is a back pylon throw at best with everything on the line. It is a low probability throw.

I can't believe that this much debate was done on a positive play for the Cards when they won the game. Oh wait, yeah I can. It's Kyler.

Yes. Deciding to run around for 22 seconds is definitely the higher-probability play here.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I mean, that's not a low probability throw. That's a throw that any QB in that situation would say "Thank you god for this glorious opportunity". That's as good as it gets on a 2 point conversion with a condensed field. That's a throw I would expect Josh Rosen to make. It's really not hard at all.

It's certainly much higher odds than running around for 28 seconds.

Have you seen Next Gen Stats on these types of throws? They are routinely in the teens/20s.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Yes. Deciding to run around for 22 seconds is definitely the higher-probability play here.

Typically the more time the QB has in the pocket, the chance of someone getting open is increased. You do believe that don't you?

 

[Chopper0080]

You can freeze frame any play of any game and find a place where the QB could hypothetically go, ignoring the context of how players are moving at that time, where defenders are headed, what pressure he's avoiding, what throwing lane he has, where he's at in the progression, etc. Bottom line is Kyler carried the team on his back for this win and people just want to find ways to validate their hysterical Blaine Gabbert or Kevin Kolb takes.

So we are just going to ignore Kyler's first half performance?

Let me try it your way...

Bottom line is Kyler put his team in a first half hole again and people just want to find ways to not hold him accountable to it.

 

[QuebecCard]

I mean, that's not a low probability throw. That's a throw that any QB in that situation would say "Thank you god for this glorious opportunity". That's as good as it gets on a 2 point conversion with a condensed field. That's a throw I would expect Josh Rosen to make. It's really not hard at all.

It's certainly much higher odds than running around for 28 seconds.

20.8 seconds.

 

[BritCard]

Have you seen Next Gen Stats on these types of throws? They are routinely in the teens/20s.

No man they ain't. Not from the 10 yard line. That's a routine throw I expect any QB to make 8 out of 10 times.

You throw eyes at Brown, draw the defender in and it's an easy pass to the back corner. Certainly any QB making $45m+ APY should make that with their eyes closed.

 

[BritCard]

20.8 seconds.

Ok, 20.8. Same applies.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

No man they ain't. Not from the 10 yard line. That's a routine throw I expect any QB to make 8 out of 10 times.

You throw eyes at Brown, draw the defender in and it's an easy pass to the back corner. Certainly any QB making $45m+ APY should make that with their eyes closed.

You're right. Of course you are right.

...this one IS sarcasm.

 

[Chopper0080]

And to @kerouac9 overall point on Kyler. In the first halves of his past 8 games, Kyler has led the Cardinals to 4 TD scoring drives, combined. His slow starts are becoming an absolute trend.

 

[BritCard]

You're right. Of course you are right.

...this one IS sarcasm.

Well, several people think it's a basic throw and only you seem to think it's tough.

I'll give him this, the 2 pointer to Green was a worldy throw. That was up there with Herbert and Rodgers.

Pretty weird that he made that one, but not the 100x easier back corner pass.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Well, several people think it's a basic throw and only you seem to think it's tough.

I'll give him this, the 2 pointer to Green was a worldy throw. That was up there with Herbert and Rodgers.

Pretty weird that he made that one, but not the 100x easier back corner pass.

I agree with gmabel's post from #3 where 10 people agree.

On your “look how wide open this dude is” take, there’s a big difference about being wide open with the ball in the QBs hands and when it gets there. I see two defenders who could easily collapse on the ball if you don’t throw it hard in the back corner of the end zone.

I do think it is a hard throw, because you can see the player just waiting for the ball to be thrown in his direction.

 

[Shane]

Some of you are too much. Would most people consider that open? Yes. Should he have thrown it, arguable. That is a back pylon throw at best with everything on the line. It is a low probability throw.

I can't believe that this much debate was done on a positive play for the Cards when they won the game. Oh wait, yeah I can. It's Kyler.

Well Kyler is certainly polarizing. Calling someone that wide open is silly. That should be a pretty easy throw for any QB with Kylers level of talent as a thrower.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

So we are just going to ignore Kyler's first half performance?

Let me try it your way...

Bottom line is Kyler put his team in a first half hole again and people just want to find ways to not hold him accountable to it.

The entire team should be held accountable for their first half performance, while praising the 2nd.