The Ayton Plan

[TJ]

I just don't see it unless DA refuses to sign a max deal here. And he'd have to be willing to take less than the max we can offer him if he forced a sign and trade.

I just don’t see Jones offering 5/172 especially with Cam being eligible this offseason and will get a Mikal contract +/-. I also see a situation in which Ayton wants to go somewhere where he’s the guaranteed #1 or #2 scoring option, and for a perimeter-oriented offense, he’s never going to have that opportunity.

 

[Mainstreet]

I just don’t see Jones offering 5/172 especially with Cam being eligible this offseason and will get a Mikal contract +/-. I also see a situation in which Ayton wants to go somewhere where he’s the guaranteed #1 or #2 scoring option, and for a perimeter-oriented offense, he’s never going to have that opportunity.

No other team can offer Ayton 5/172 either. The best they can do is offer a four year contract with option years as a RFA.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I just don’t see Jones offering 5/172 especially with Cam being eligible this offseason and will get a Mikal contract +/-. I also see a situation in which Ayton wants to go somewhere where he’s the guaranteed #1 or #2 scoring option, and for a perimeter-oriented offense, he’s never going to have that opportunity.

The rules have changed, other teams can no longer compete contractually in this kind of situation - their max is lower, their number of years is lower and their annual raises are lower. And IMO the writing is on the wall, Ayton will be the number 2 scorer once CP3 retires.

James is too smart to really believe we'd be better off with a mediocre center so that we can spend elsewhere. Maybe the money/Sarver ties JJ's hands but if that's the case we're screwed whether we keep DA or not. Assuming Sarver or his replacement really wants to win big, keeping Ayton and players such as CamJ are a no-brainer.

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

Suns are keeping Ayton. He's gotten better every year and he's just now showing signs of mental maturity, which is what Jones was waiting to see...IMO. If he shows up big in the playoffs...he'll definitely get the 5 year deal.

 

[elindholm]

I just don’t see Jones offering 5/172 especially with Cam being eligible this offseason and will get a Mikal contract +/-. I also see a situation in which Ayton wants to go somewhere where he’s the guaranteed #1 or #2 scoring option, and for a perimeter-oriented offense, he’s never going to have that opportunity.

I agree that Ayton might be S&T'd, but I don't know where you get the idea that the Suns are a perimeter-oriented offense. They are 5th in the league in points in the paint. https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/points-in-paint-per-game

 

[TJ]

The rules have changed, other teams can no longer compete contractually in this kind of situation - their max is lower, their number of years is lower and their annual raises are lower. And IMO the writing is on the wall, Ayton will be the number 2 scorer once CP3 retires.

James is too smart to really believe we'd be better off with a mediocre center so that we can spend elsewhere. Maybe the money/Sarver ties JJ's hands but if that's the case we're screwed whether we keep DA or not. Assuming Sarver or his replacement really wants to win big, keeping Ayton and players such as CamJ are a no-brainer.

I know that the rules greatly benefit the Suns keeping him, but again, it becomes the same story as last summer: Does Jones want to give him that fifth year that Ayton has refused to budge from? I cant say with any degree of confidence that that's the case, and with guys like Cam and Booker up for massive extensions, Jones has to be judicious with Sarver's money. I simply see Ayton being the odd man out and the team being able to get a massive haul back for him.

 

[TJ]

I agree that Ayton might be S&T'd, but I don't know where you get the idea that the Suns are a perimeter-oriented offense. They are 5th in the league in points in the paint. https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/points-in-paint-per-game

That includes all players, not just bigs. The team isn't just chucking and ducking. But, there are very few (if any) plays in which the center is the primary offensive player in an offensive set. There are many times in which Ayton is simply used as a decoy or screener.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I just don’t see Jones offering 5/172 especially with Cam being eligible this offseason and will get a Mikal contract +/-. I also see a situation in which Ayton wants to go somewhere where he’s the guaranteed #1 or #2 scoring option, and for a perimeter-oriented offense, he’s never going to have that opportunity.

We saw him take a big step forward when Paul was out and Paul ain’t playing forever. He is already our second leading scorer and those numbers will rise. I’d be shocked if they don’t sign him to a long deal.

 

[Absolute Zero]

That includes all players, not just bigs. The team isn't just chucking and ducking. But, there are very few (if any) plays in which the center is the primary offensive player in an offensive set. There are many times in which Ayton is simply used as a decoy or screener.

What about "5 pop"?

That's the play they call for Ayton to hit the 3 past the top of the key.

 

[DJ Tabooh]

I know that the rules greatly benefit the Suns keeping him, but again, it becomes the same story as last summer: Does Jones want to give him that fifth year that Ayton has refused to budge from? I cant say with any degree of confidence that that's the case, and with guys like Cam and Booker up for massive extensions, Jones has to be judicious with Sarver's money. I simply see Ayton being the odd man out and the team being able to get a massive haul back for him.

I think Cam will get a little less than Mikal got. Is he a better all around offensive player? Yes. But Mikal is more durable and much better defensively. What I look at is Book is eligible for a Supermax if he makes All-NBA or he could push it back a year and try and make a tad more but he’d have to make All-NBA again next season.

I’m not saying he won’t, but 4 years/$210 million is hard to pass up and it locks him up in Phoenix until 2027-28 when he’ll be 30.

 

[Covert Rain]

Ayton's jump show and hook have been a huge leap forward in his arsenal. It cannot be stated how big it is when our guards and wings are chucking up shots that are not falling and the other team is on a run. Having a weapon that can get you some easy buckets should not be taken for granted.

 

[Finito]

I think Cam will get a little less than Mikal got. Is he a better all around offensive player? Yes. But Mikal is more durable and much better defensively. What I look at is Book is eligible for a Supermax if he makes All-NBA or he could push it back a year and try and make a tad more but he’d have to make All-NBA again next season.

I’m not saying he won’t, but 4 years/$210 million is hard to pass up and it locks him up in Phoenix until 2027-28 when he’ll be 30.

Yeah money about to get real tight

 

[Cheesebeef]

I’m a little nervous. Bill Simmons sometimes has a pretty good ear for things. Before contract negotiations last year, he said he was hearing Sarver wasn’t going to give Ayton the five year Max and is sticking by that saying he’s hearing five years still ain’t happening and that Ayton is likely a sign and trade in the off-season.

I wouldn’t put that much credit into Simmons normally, but he was wayyyyy ahead on the Brady non-retirement and forcing Arians to walk.

That said, Simmons definitely has more Brady connects than anything else and not going to harp on it at all now. Too excited for what’s right in front of us to worry about the future.

 

[TJ]

I think Cam will get a little less than Mikal got. Is he a better all around offensive player? Yes. But Mikal is more durable and much better defensively. What I look at is Book is eligible for a Supermax if he makes All-NBA or he could push it back a year and try and make a tad more but he’d have to make All-NBA again next season.

I’m not saying he won’t, but 4 years/$210 million is hard to pass up and it locks him up in Phoenix until 2027-28 when he’ll be 30.

Book can also add option years to his contract. He'll 100% re-sign and be well compensated.

If comes down to how much Jones value Ayton. Certainly in a vacuum, Jones re-signs Ayton to a max, but he also has to think about the other 14 roster spots and consider that he'll have to replace CP3 in a couple of seasons. Either Jones can trade for a top-tier PG or get draft capital to draft and groom one.

 

[JCSunsfan]

If we win a championship this year, all bets are off. Lots of players get their ring and then decided to go get as much bank as they absolutely can.

 

[Mainstreet]

I’m a little nervous. Bill Simmons sometimes has a pretty good ear for things. Before contract negotiations last year, he said he was hearing Sarver wasn’t going to give Ayton the five year Max and is sticking by that saying he’s hearing five years still ain’t happening and that Ayton is likely a sign and trade in the off-season.

I wouldn’t put that much credit into Simmons normally, but he was wayyyyy ahead on the Brady non-retirement and forcing Arians to walk.

That said, Simmons definitely has more Brady connects than anything else and not going to harp on it at all now. Too excited for what’s right in front of us to worry about the future.

I'm sure you are aware of it, but in restricted free agency the Suns don't have to worry about offering or matching a 5 year max contract because other teams don't have this option. They can only offer four years.

The Suns could easily match the offer sheet of another team and keep Ayton for a year or two and trade him later on if he doesn't meet expectations. They don't have to do a sign and trade if they don't want too. I doubt it's going to be a Joe Johnson scenario.

 

[Finito]

Book can also add option years to his contract. He'll 100% re-sign and be well compensated.

If comes down to how much Jones value Ayton. Certainly in a vacuum, Jones re-signs Ayton to a max, but he also has to think about the other 14 roster spots and consider that he'll have to replace CP3 in a couple of seasons. Either Jones can trade for a top-tier PG or get draft capital to draft and groom one.

If I have to choose between a PG coming up on 40 or C coming up on 25 I’m taking the one who’s just entering his prime.

I think it comes down to how they value Ayton as a man. If they do a sign and trade for another max big man then it was Ayton the person if they sign and trade him for some random mix it’s the money.

I wouldn’t mind Ayton/Shamet for Gobert if Utah breaks it up.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I'm sure you are aware of it, but in restricted free agency the Suns don't have to worry about offering or matching a 5 year max contract because other teams don't have this option. They can only offer four years.

The Suns could easily match the offer sheet of another team and keep Ayton for a year or two and trade him later on if he doesn't meet expectations. They don't have to do a sign and trade if they don't want too. I doubt it's going to be a Joe Johnson scenario.

I mean if two years from now he isn't living up to expectations he may be much more difficult to trade at that point. Not that I don't think that he won't live up to expectations or would I want to trade him.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I'm sure you are aware of it, but in restricted free agency the Suns don't have to worry about offering or matching a 5 year max contract because other teams don't have this option. They can only offer four years.

The Suns could easily match the offer sheet of another team and keep Ayton for a year or two and trade him later on if he doesn't meet expectations. They don't have to do a sign and trade if they don't want too. I doubt it's going to be a Joe Johnson scenario.

I don’t see the Suns letting this be a thing that lingers over the team for a couple years and then possibly lose him for nothing. This is the era of player impowerment. If he shows out hard in the playoffs like last year and we win the chip, I think he’s gonna get what he wants one way or another.

 

[Mainstreet]

I mean if two years from now he isn't living up to expectations he may be much more difficult to trade at that point. Not that I don't think that he won't live up to expectations or would I want to trade him.

I'm only trying to point out the Suns have lots of options with keeping Ayton in restricted free agency unless he plays hard ball and decides to play for the qualifying offer. That would be very risky business so I don't think that happens although he could threaten it.

 

[Mainstreet]

I don’t see the Suns letting this be a thing that lingers over the team for a couple years and then possibly lose him for nothing. This is the era of player impowerment. If he shows out hard in the playoffs like last year and we win the chip, I think he’s gonna get what he wants one way or another.

If the Suns win a championship I think the Suns pay Ayton. However, other than match an offer sheet in RFA, they don't have to trade him this summer.

 

[GatorAZ]

When high energy/sure-handed DA shows up it takes the team to a different level. It’s beautiful to watch him catch and finish those pick & roll lobs.

 

[AzStevenCal]

If we win a championship this year, all bets are off. Lots of players get their ring and then decided to go get as much bank as they absolutely can.

Yeah I've been wondering how that will affect Sarver if he's still in charge. Will he be thrilled by the attention and additional income streams or will he say, challenge met, time to go all Sterling on the club?

 

[Mainstreet]

When high energy/sure-handed DA shows up it takes the team to a different level. It’s beautiful to watch him catch and finish those pick & roll lobs.

It is a thing of beauty. A lot of times when it's not happening I think it's because the opponent has done something on defense to make that more difficult. Theoretically the pick and roll should always be available.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I’m a little nervous. Bill Simmons sometimes has a pretty good ear for things. Before contract negotiations last year, he said he was hearing Sarver wasn’t going to give Ayton the five year Max and is sticking by that saying he’s hearing five years still ain’t happening and that Ayton is likely a sign and trade in the off-season.

I wouldn’t put that much credit into Simmons normally, but he was wayyyyy ahead on the Brady non-retirement and forcing Arians to walk.

That said, Simmons definitely has more Brady connects than anything else and not going to harp on it at all now. Too excited for what’s right in front of us to worry about the future.

I so hope he doesn't know what he's talking about here. And if he does have a legit inside source, it gives us even more reason to hope he's ousted before he can do that kind of damage.