If you believed that the economy was as strong as being reported, then yes..but, imo, the fed was doing opposite of what they were saying on CNBC. Balance sheet growth, reverse repo market, etc. Their actions aren't matching their words. I think the bond market, which is normally seen as the 'smarter' market, has been saying and showing this for months, IMO. Effectively calling the feds bluff.
The Market 2021
- Thread starter Folster
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82CardsGrad
7 x 70
Is it perplexing though? I might be wrong, but it seems to me that over the past month or so, money has been rotating into bonds in expectation of a looming sell-off, and coupled with massive bond-buying from the Fed, pension funds, sovereign foreign buying (read a few weeks ago that foreign countries are back to buying our debt)... I think all of this is serving to keep yields depressed...
They know they can't lose the long end of the curve imo. Even though it's been a case of delaying the inevitable from my perspective. I think the taper talks are just that. Talk. They can't taper...it's beyond the possibility at this point. If the ten year yield continues on a downward spiral with bond purchases...then in no real world scenario could you see the fed taper in the foreseeable future. They'll just keep buying it all.
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I think that is short-sighted from the perspective of the bond investor.
Yuma
Suns are my Kryptonite!
I am wondering with the outbreaks in Covid of vaccinated people, as well as deaths are starting to spike in unvaccinated people, I have been reading where local, and state governments are considering mask mandates again. I know mask mandates seem to be seen as anti business. Prices of some goods are leading people to start talking inflation again. I know the groceries I buy, there have been spotty availability, and price increases. Used cars are outrageously priced, home prices are going up fast, and generally everything is being priced like it is scarce. We import a LOT of our goods. Looking at the world, there is a covid concern world wide, and here in the US it seems like our population feels like covid is over. There does seem to be a disconnect, and I think Covid plays a role in it. Either with a covid affected supply chain, people quitting their jobs, etc. Our labor numbers seem unreliable now. It seems like it's hard to get good data to actually see what is happening in real time. Uncertainty seems like part of the problem, too.
Or shortsighted from the perspective of stock investors. If the bond market is pricing in risk, you listen.. IMO.
Small caps have been due for a bounce based on selling exhaustion IMO. Biggest question is if it sticks as a floor or is only a dead cat. They're usually known as a leading indicator, along with transports, of the broader market. So these coming days and weeks will be pivotal to see where we go from here in these two groups.
You are continuing your excellent track record of predicting the present after it has happend. Keep up the good work!
Don't hate because technical analysis has been calling this volatility for some time now.. I'll give you some tips on the next move if you really need them in real time. Just let me know..I didn't know I needed to post here so you could get into some moves. But I'm down. You can always PM me whenever.
That's cool, I appreciate that. So how much did you make these past two days? Those swings must have presented some great profit opportunities for those who saw them coming.
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Folster
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I nearly took a short term flyer on Carnival (CCL) yesterday when it fell below $20. It was down big on the day and after a steady fall from it's high of $31.52 in June. My dislike of the floating malls led me to wait another day thinking it could fall a bit further if we had another down day. Ifs and buts....
Based on my model and signals that I trade on I've been short 5 of the 11 sector ETFs....and long 1 of them, since Fridays close. (XLU - Utilities sector) I leverage once my portfolio gets past 6 sectors because correlation with all sectors represents great opportunity.
As amazed as I am to be saying this, you do not seem to have answered my question. How much did you make these past two days?
Zeno
Ancient
Yep I saw it at $19.52 (I think) and almost pulled the trigger---but didn't.
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I thought this was graph was interesting/frightening.
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Yuma
Suns are my Kryptonite!
The revenue part is scary. I would like to see the chart on China like this. China is set to pass us in GDP any year now. I worry about our revenue direction. Would like to see that revenue start rising faster. That would help us tremendously with that deficit. Gonna need a great revenue jump to eat into that debt! No way at this point we can just use austerity to get us out of this. We do need to jump start every industry, bring back manufacturing, etc.
Zeno
Ancient
Does anyone here really pay attention to environmental, social and governance factors (ESG) when it comes to how they invest? My investments all have an ESG score but I honestly skip over that stuff most of the time and don't make purchases based on that at all.
82CardsGrad
7 x 70
Retail schmucks like us don't... but institutional investors more often do...
Not at all. ESG is something that needs to die a quick death.
A tiny bit. If I'm choosing between two mutual funds that have vaguely similar investment profiles, I'll probably opt for the one that's stronger on ESG. An example would be PRBLX, which Morningstar describes this way:
"The managers employ a firmwide philosophy and approach. They exclude companies that derive significant revenue from alcohol, tobacco, weapons, fossil fuels, nuclear power, or gambling and then employ ESG, quality, and valuation screens to filter out about 85% of the universe. From there, they look for companies with sustainable competitive advantages, increasingly relevant products or services, exemplary management, and ethical practices."
It's been about in step with index funds over the last few years, so my feeling is, why not push a little more money in the right direction, and maybe it will pay off for all of us down the road.
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I think they are a marketing gimmick and use ESG to justify higher fees. Fossil fuels are bad but what about slave and child labor. My understanding is that they score companies on a myriad of different areas and look at the company's total score so they may be in an industry you don't like, but score well in other areas that allow them to be included.
Ultimately the market and governments will sort out the winners and losers.
BigRedRage
Reckless
Biden holding an event to tout ice automakers moving to electric and goals to go more electric and still leaving out TSLA, you know, the company that made this happen. ICE is only moving electric because if they dont, electric cars were going to continue to eat into their profits until ICE vehicles no longer sell.
Yet the company that forced the auto industries hand will have no part of a panel.
Tesla is a DNC platform wet dream but the lobby money is so powerful they stay away from it.
Yet the company that forced the auto industries hand will have no part of a panel.
Tesla is a DNC platform wet dream but the lobby money is so powerful they stay away from it.
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BigRedRage
Reckless
This time it's being talked about. Buttegieg chimes in
My phone won't copy the link address right now
