Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Well I, along with several others, have said this will be the craziest draft ever. So what’s the winning strategy? Well despite the usual BPA clamor, the modern draft recognizes the existence of a cap. Teams BPsA typically are confined to areas of need. So first the Cards should prioritize their needs. Free agency aside I’d put the needs as CB, Edge, WR, RB, DL & OL. I know they could use assorted other positional help, but those slots seem the most desperate.
There is no way to know the impact of free agency. Not only is the draft confusing but so is free agency. FA demands initially will be excessive. Cap money is scarce. Expect tons of anger as a result. Some creative teams will find ways to do quite a bit. A few, like the Colts, actually have space. Mostly the teams who know how to manipulate the cap will benefit. Historically that hasn’t been the Cards.
FA is thin at primary CBs. There are quite a few Edge Rushers who would be adequate opposite Jones if he returns to form. Since this is a contract year, I expect him to bounce back. The Cards can afford one of those players. There are always running backs but getting an impact runner is difficult. I know many want Fournette, but he failed to deliver at Jax. He is far from a sure thing. I don’t like that gamble. This is an outstanding draft for both WRs & OLs. The only real chance to add DL help is free agency or a trade. I’m certainly okay with trading a pick out of this draft to fill a need.
Where does that leave it? As for the corner, the Cards have 4 options. Sit tight and hope one of the 2 suitable corners falls. Horn is not a number one corner. Re-sign Peterson, but I don’t believe he’s worth the money he will get. Trade for a corner. The problem again is the cap. They’d have to make some cuts for that to happen. Finally if one of the corners slide they could trade their third round pick to move up and grab a CB. They could trade a 2022 pick to move up farther, but that would significantly increase their rookie pool.
As I suggested above, the best use of FA is securing an Edge Rusher. As for using the first pick on one that worries me. The top draft worthy Edge Rushers have the type of issues I don’t like in a first round selection. Paye & Rousseau are the consensus early picks. Paye has a motor issue. Rousseau looks the part, but seldom plays like that. Many of the lower picks leave questions about holding the edge. There are a couple of lower round options that might be worth a gamble but I like FA better.
I’ve already presented that I don’t see a helpful DL in round 1. Therefore if the CBs are unreachable that leaves OL, WR & RB. I’m not opposed to taking either RB Harris or Williams. Both have the talent but fulfilling their promise has been a constant issue with RBs. I go Williams first, but either would do and Harris is a better receiver. Both should be there and might even occasion a small trade down.
This is a great draft for WRs and the Cards certainly need one. Kadarius Toney has the solid speed the Cards need. His published 40 times look a little slow but I expected him to surprise at Florida’s Pro Day. His game speed is fine. He’s a big play machine who runs great routes, is hard to tackle and has unusual separation burst. He’s also a fine runner on gimmick plays. He’s the surest choice among the wide receivers. I think the most likely scenario is both CBs, the 2 Bama receivers and Chase are gone by 16. If my worst nightmare happens, Toney might also be gone. If you feel compelled to go WR, consider replacing Fitzgerald with Rashod Bateman. He’s not super fast but like Hopkins if it’s near him he’ll catch it. He has a knack for making the game breaking play. He opted out, so he’ll drop due to lacking great speed. Again a short trade down would work. He has a very high floor and virtually no bust potential. He fits this offense.
The fallback choice is an OL. This is a great draft, but I’m on record that I’d try to grab Little in round 2. If you go in 1, Christian Darrisaw is both good and mean. That’s one of my favorite combinations. He’s the best run blocker in the draft. He’s also shown continuous improvement as a pass blocker. Still I’d start him at LG (though he’s never played inside) and if his footwork and balance improve he could be a fine tackle as well.
So that’s it, at today’s stage my board first round choices would be
Surtain then Farley
Toney
Williams
Harris
Darrisaw
Bateman (with trade down)
Of course we are a long way from draft day, so much may change.
There is no way to know the impact of free agency. Not only is the draft confusing but so is free agency. FA demands initially will be excessive. Cap money is scarce. Expect tons of anger as a result. Some creative teams will find ways to do quite a bit. A few, like the Colts, actually have space. Mostly the teams who know how to manipulate the cap will benefit. Historically that hasn’t been the Cards.
FA is thin at primary CBs. There are quite a few Edge Rushers who would be adequate opposite Jones if he returns to form. Since this is a contract year, I expect him to bounce back. The Cards can afford one of those players. There are always running backs but getting an impact runner is difficult. I know many want Fournette, but he failed to deliver at Jax. He is far from a sure thing. I don’t like that gamble. This is an outstanding draft for both WRs & OLs. The only real chance to add DL help is free agency or a trade. I’m certainly okay with trading a pick out of this draft to fill a need.
Where does that leave it? As for the corner, the Cards have 4 options. Sit tight and hope one of the 2 suitable corners falls. Horn is not a number one corner. Re-sign Peterson, but I don’t believe he’s worth the money he will get. Trade for a corner. The problem again is the cap. They’d have to make some cuts for that to happen. Finally if one of the corners slide they could trade their third round pick to move up and grab a CB. They could trade a 2022 pick to move up farther, but that would significantly increase their rookie pool.
As I suggested above, the best use of FA is securing an Edge Rusher. As for using the first pick on one that worries me. The top draft worthy Edge Rushers have the type of issues I don’t like in a first round selection. Paye & Rousseau are the consensus early picks. Paye has a motor issue. Rousseau looks the part, but seldom plays like that. Many of the lower picks leave questions about holding the edge. There are a couple of lower round options that might be worth a gamble but I like FA better.
I’ve already presented that I don’t see a helpful DL in round 1. Therefore if the CBs are unreachable that leaves OL, WR & RB. I’m not opposed to taking either RB Harris or Williams. Both have the talent but fulfilling their promise has been a constant issue with RBs. I go Williams first, but either would do and Harris is a better receiver. Both should be there and might even occasion a small trade down.
This is a great draft for WRs and the Cards certainly need one. Kadarius Toney has the solid speed the Cards need. His published 40 times look a little slow but I expected him to surprise at Florida’s Pro Day. His game speed is fine. He’s a big play machine who runs great routes, is hard to tackle and has unusual separation burst. He’s also a fine runner on gimmick plays. He’s the surest choice among the wide receivers. I think the most likely scenario is both CBs, the 2 Bama receivers and Chase are gone by 16. If my worst nightmare happens, Toney might also be gone. If you feel compelled to go WR, consider replacing Fitzgerald with Rashod Bateman. He’s not super fast but like Hopkins if it’s near him he’ll catch it. He has a knack for making the game breaking play. He opted out, so he’ll drop due to lacking great speed. Again a short trade down would work. He has a very high floor and virtually no bust potential. He fits this offense.
The fallback choice is an OL. This is a great draft, but I’m on record that I’d try to grab Little in round 2. If you go in 1, Christian Darrisaw is both good and mean. That’s one of my favorite combinations. He’s the best run blocker in the draft. He’s also shown continuous improvement as a pass blocker. Still I’d start him at LG (though he’s never played inside) and if his footwork and balance improve he could be a fine tackle as well.
So that’s it, at today’s stage my board first round choices would be
Surtain then Farley
Toney
Williams
Harris
Darrisaw
Bateman (with trade down)
Of course we are a long way from draft day, so much may change.