Updated Depth Chart

[WhyAlwaysMe]

This can't be emphasized enough, in my opinion, including with respect to Oubre's impact. The bubble was a nice story, nothing more, nothing less. It would be best if we disregarded it entirely in terms of assessing this roster and how it projects to perform.

It remains to be seen. The thing to remember, though, is that we weren’t simply good or great in the bubble. We were elite. +13.2 per 100; the Bucks were +9.5 all year. I’m fully prepared to say that at least several of those points were gifted, maybe even as much as 10per100, but I expect us to be +3 per 100 next year as a floor given the roster improvement and natural improvements for our incredibly young roster. Denver was +2 last year.

 

[elindholm]

44-28 sounds very high to me. Keep in mind that this roster's top three players (Booker, Paul, Ayton) have all demonstrated that they have difficulty staying in the lineup. The Suns might win at a 44-28 pace when all three are healthy, but my guess is we'll have no more than 50 games this season when that's the case, and that's a pretty optimistic estimate.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

But the information is not pertinent. It involves circumstances that won't come close to being replicated.

It was still NBA basketball and most teams still had something to play for for most of it. Don’t tell me the Clippers weren’t trying.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

44-28 sounds very high to me. Keep in mind that this roster's top three players (Booker, Paul, Ayton) have all demonstrated that they have difficulty staying in the lineup. The Suns might win at a 44-28 pace when all three are healthy, but my guess is we'll have no more than 50 games this season when that's the case, and that's a pretty optimistic estimate.

Booker and particularly Ayton have missed time due to less likely to recur flukes. I remain committed to resting and load managing Paul’s games and mpg (as OKC provided the road map to as to the latter last year) will help preserve his health. Again, he has NOTHING structural in his entire injury history.

 

[1Sun]

Booker and particularly Ayton have missed time due to less likely to recur flukes. I remain committed to resting and load managing Paul’s games and mpg (as OKC provided the road map to as to the latter last year) will help preserve his health. Again, he has NOTHING structural in his entire injury history.

Neither did KJ...

 

[Folster]

I’ll be disappointed if 44-28 isn’t the floor.

That would be equivalent of 50 win team with an 82 game season. That would've been good enough for at tie for 5th in the West in 2018-2019, the last full season.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Neither did KJ...

I’m not saying it can’t happen, I’m just saying given the injury history (not all injuries created equally) and modern medicine as well as understanding of biomechanics makes it LESS likely to happen than otherwise.

 

[Yuma]

I don't think we can downplay all the games Ayton missed last year and the effect it had on our final record.

 

[1Sun]

I don't think we can downplay all the games Ayton missed last year and the effect it had on our final record.

But they weren't all that much better record-wise WITH Ayton...

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

44-28 sounds very high to me. Keep in mind that this roster's top three players (Booker, Paul, Ayton) have all demonstrated that they have difficulty staying in the lineup. The Suns might win at a 44-28 pace when all three are healthy, but my guess is we'll have no more than 50 games this season when that's the case, and that's a pretty optimistic estimate.

It’s a 50 win pace on a normal 82 game schedule. If that’s not our expectation then I think this offseason was an abject failure.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

That would be equivalent of 50 win team with an 82 game season. That would've been good enough for at tie for 5th in the West in 2018-2019, the last full season.

Correct. There are a lot of variables to account for:
1. The Bubble no more
2. Oubre’s departure (see #1)
3. Paul’s fit
4. Ayton’s improvement
5. Monty’s handling of everything

The Suns’ floor should be at least .500 (41 in a full year) given health, even if they lose a ton of close games and Oubre was more important than he’s given credit for or something and the pieces don’t fit.

I think anywhere between a full season 41-55 wins is possible with this group (so 36-48 wins this year.) I tend to think we will be closer to 48 than 36 just because we seem to have what every crunch time team needs: multiple great wing defenders and a good rim protector, as well as two absolute bucket getters. I’ll say 45-27. That number should reflect the Vegas win total when they post (as well as our T-8th title odds number). We also get the benefit of fewer games against our far tougher than average division opponents, which helps creep our expected win total up a couple in my reckoning.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

It’s a 50 win pace on a normal 82 game schedule. If that’s not our expectation then I think this offseason was an abject failure.

We were on pace to win 33 in an 82-game season last year pre-stoppage. 17 is a big jump given the offseason, but young teams frequently make big jumps. It also depends on how much stock once gives the bubble. It definitely doesn’t mean nothing simply due to line-up construction.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I don't think we can downplay all the games Ayton missed last year and the effect it had on our final record.

I like the job Jones has done in FA and the draft. We can debate - today, if those moves make us better and/or if they'll help produce more W's in the coming season... time will soon tell. But for me, while I see the story in the moves of Jones building a tougher team (Paul, Crowder and even Jalen Smith) and I like it, the bottom line still comes down to Ayton. Will Ayton become who we want him to be? And if he doesn't - can this team still win? I mean, if Ayton becomes a steady 18/19ppg and 10/11rpg and a block or two per game, can this team still win?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

That would be equivalent of 50 win team with an 82 game season. That would've been good enough for at tie for 5th in the West in 2018-2019, the last full season.

Yup, that was the mark I used to back into 44. That should be floor goal for this team based on player growth, no 25 game suspension for Ayton and the improvements to the roster.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

We were on pace to win 33 in an 82-game season last year pre-stoppage. 17 is a big jump given the offseason, but young teams frequently make big jumps. It also depends on how much stock once gives the bubble. It definitely doesn’t mean nothing simply due to line-up construction.

I have the bubble a good lean in terms of influence due to the young team coming together and actually having Ayton. And let’s recall that team didn’t have baynes or oubre.

to me I see 44 as a floor due to:

bubble play

continued development of a LOT of young players (Ayton, bridges, cam, Carter).

Ayton not being suspended 25 games. Abe anyone looks at last years record and doesn’t heavily weigh that into the computation I think it’s unrealistic.

Another year in monty’s system. Let’s not forget that was monty’s first year with this crew.

Book taking additional steps as a superstar.

Paul, crowder, Moore, jones - these are quality additions that outweigh losses in the aggregate, particularly on the defensive end of the court. And we didn’t lose a tremendous amount of offense in the swap of players.

To me that all adds up to another big leap in wins.

 

[Yuma]

But they weren't all that much better record-wise WITH Ayton...

Part of that is he was missing to learn to play with new players in game time situations like Rubio. They were rusty or misreading each other on plays for a long stretch that season.

 

[Chaplin]

If nobody picks them up and they're desperate, who says no if we drop Okobo and pick up Reggie Jackson or Isaiah Thomas at the minimum or even the BAE for a couple years?

 

[82CardsGrad]

I have the bubble a good lean in terms of influence due to the young team coming together and actually having Ayton. And let’s recall that team didn’t have baynes or oubre.

to me I see 44 as a floor due to:

bubble play

continued development of a LOT of young players (Ayton, bridges, cam, Carter).

Ayton not being suspended 25 games. Abe anyone looks at last years record and doesn’t heavily weigh that into the computation I think it’s unrealistic.

Another year in monty’s system. Let’s not forget that was monty’s first year with this crew.

Book taking additional steps as a superstar.

Paul, crowder, Moore, jones - these are quality additions that outweigh losses in the aggregate, particularly on the defensive end of the court. And we didn’t lose a tremendous amount of offense in the swap of players.

To me that all adds up to another big leap in wins.

I don't think anyone would suggest they wouldn't expect this team to take another leap forward... question is, how big will that leap be? And, what if Ayton doesn't take a sizeable leap forward? What if he is simply an 18/19ppg 10/11reb guy?
I'm really curious what expectations people have for Deandre... and what really should be our expectations.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I have the bubble a good lean in terms of influence due to the young team coming together and actually having Ayton. And let’s recall that team didn’t have baynes or oubre.

to me I see 44 as a floor due to:

bubble play

continued development of a LOT of young players (Ayton, bridges, cam, Carter).

Ayton not being suspended 25 games. Abe anyone looks at last years record and doesn’t heavily weigh that into the computation I think it’s unrealistic.

Another year in monty’s system. Let’s not forget that was monty’s first year with this crew.

Book taking additional steps as a superstar.

Paul, crowder, Moore, jones - these are quality additions that outweigh losses in the aggregate, particularly on the defensive end of the court. And we didn’t lose a tremendous amount of offense in the swap of players.

To me that all adds up to another big leap in wins.

The Paul acquisition alone was enough IMO to push us to above .500. He matches everything Rubio does and provides the team with another reliable scorer that comes up with big buckets in the 4th quarter (which will be huge with helping us pull out more close games).

Then add in a guy like Crowder who has a ton of experience on good teams and is known for doing things that do a lot to help teams win and a 50 win pace seems very realistic.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I don't think anyone would suggest they wouldn't expect this team to take another leap forward... question is, how big will that leap be? And, what if Ayton doesn't take a sizeable leap forward? What if he is simply an 18/19ppg 10/11reb guy?
I'm really curious what expectations people have for Deandre... and what really should be our expectations.

Just getting 25 more games from Ayton alone should result in a lot more wins.

I suspect Ayton moves up to 21 and 11-12 rebs and continues his growth on defense. I don’t think we will ever see an explosion of growth with him. But gradual growth is expected. And fewer on court lapses with Paul in his grill.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

I have the bubble a good lean in terms of influence due to the young team coming together and actually having Ayton. And let’s recall that team didn’t have baynes or oubre.

to me I see 44 as a floor due to:

bubble play

continued development of a LOT of young players (Ayton, bridges, cam, Carter).

Ayton not being suspended 25 games. Abe anyone looks at last years record and doesn’t heavily weigh that into the computation I think it’s unrealistic.

Another year in monty’s system. Let’s not forget that was monty’s first year with this crew.

Book taking additional steps as a superstar.

Paul, crowder, Moore, jones - these are quality additions that outweigh losses in the aggregate, particularly on the defensive end of the court. And we didn’t lose a tremendous amount of offense in the swap of players.

To me that all adds up to another big leap in wins.

This all makes sense, the opposing view would note that the team was 13-18 with Ayton pre-bubble and the Suns have no credible third creator.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

If nobody picks them up and they're desperate, who says no if we drop Okobo and pick up Reggie Jackson or Isaiah Thomas at the minimum or even the BAE for a couple years?

I think there’s an argument that saving the BAE until next year or mid-year could be the smarter play. Someone like Hill may become available.

 

[Folster]

Guards
In: Paul, Moore
Out: Rubio, Jerome

Provided Paul can at least meet Rubio's fairly low bar of availability, we have significantly upgraded our guard position. Jerome didn't belong on the court last year and he is being replaced with a savvy vet with a nice shooting stroke from three and soft touch from inside. Both players are strong defenders.

Wings
In: Crowder, Nader
Out: Oubre

While we lose Oubre's passion and his ability to create his own shot, we are gaining a gritty wing defender capable of guarding 3s and 4s. He also has the ability to hit the open 3, especially from the corner and can be trusted to play within the system. Nader's ability to contribute remains to be seen.

Bigs
In: Smith, Jones
Out: Baynes, Kaminski, Diallo

What we lose in Baynes screen-setting and pick and pop game, we gain in youth and potential with Smith. If he can get on the court, he should provide some floor stretching with the ability to shoot from distance, but he also provides the ability to roll or slip the screen for an easy shot at the rim working with Paul and Booker. He'll add shot blocking and rebounding compared to Baynes, but Baynes was able to make up for a lack of shot blocking by drawing offensive fouls.

Kaminski was frustrating to watch down low as it seemed he had the most shots blocked and point blank misses. Despite his shortcomings, he was a streaky shooter who did heat up and he was able to make the right reads in the offense which is something young bigs tend to struggle with. His loss, likely won't be impactful.

I was surprised by Diallo's soft touch around the hoop and jumper, but he was not much of a factor for us aside from spot minutes. Hopefully Jones can provide high energy and toughness if given minutes at the 5. If any good can come from Jones it would be his eagerness to dunk everything potentially rubbing off on Ayton a little.

 

[Suns_fan69]

If nobody picks them up and they're desperate, who says no if we drop Okobo and pick up Reggie Jackson or Isaiah Thomas at the minimum or even the BAE for a couple years?

I'd be wary of them wanting to have a bigger role than we have. Both of these guys have been relatively high-usage players in the past and may want a similar role. It's worth kicking the tires on I guess.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Just getting 25 more games from Ayton alone should result in a lot more wins.

I suspect Ayton moves up to 21 and 11-12 rebs and continues his growth on defense. I don’t think we will ever see an explosion of growth with him. But gradual growth is expected. And fewer on court lapses with Paul in his grill.

The comment in bold is what really fascinates me... I am REALLY hoping BOTH Paul and Crowder can have a meaningful and lasting influence on Ayton!