For half the season I have been hearing we have all this cap space to rebuild. I’ve seen fans throw out figures of $80 and $90 million.
The truth is that right now we have somewhere in the region of $66.5m. Roughly what we had last year at this point. This is actually down a bit from $74m when I last saw it a few weeks ago but that’s because it’s now counting a bunch of camp guys like Dora, Chachere, Fitts, Dora etc that aren’t likely to make the final 53.
For the purposes of this article I’m only interested in the cap space on cut day next year for the final 53 man roster. If I take those guys out that leaves us just over $71m if the salary cap is raised to where expected, but only 36 players. Let’s find the 17 other we need.
This article will cover what I expect Keim to do based on what we are hearing and his past tendencies. At the end I think you will see why something different is required which I will cover in replies.
Team needs
As things stand with those 36 players on the roster there are a lot of needs.
· The only real EDGE guy on the roster is Chandler Jones. We could argue about Reddick here but at best he’s depth. We certainly need at least 2 Edge guys, one of them a starter.
· Both starting tackles are gone and only one backup. Big need there.
· Starting C is gone
· Larry is gone. So no WR1.
· We have been starting scrubs at LB. A partner for Hicks is a big need.
· This team has been crying out for a top end interior defensive linemen. Big need.
· I think the consensus is that barring a miracle DJ is done as a RB1. So running back is a need.
· Kicker. Zane is RFA.
· There is no backup QB’s on the roster.
· A bunch of depth at various positions included DT, Edge, OL, S, CB, TE
Those are some expensive starting positions we need to fill.
Our own free agents
Word is (and this word comes from ROTB so take that how you like) is that the FO want to re-sign a bunch of our own Free Agents.
DJ Humphries
I heard they offered Hump $11m per which they turned down right away. The expected landing spot for whatever team signs him is $14m per. So that what we will use for this exercise. -$14m
Justin Murray
Justin Murray was impressive considering he was a late waiver wire flyer after Gilbert went down (and Keim traded Cunningham). His final PFF grade was barely any different to Humps. More pleasing is that Murray’s grades got considerable better as the season went on and he was outperforming Hump at the end of the year.
Murray is ERFA so a 1 year tender would only cost $585,000. A no brainer. -$585,000
Larry Fitzgerald
Larry. Larry. Larry.
I actually don’t think Larry has lost much. I think we have severely under used him the last 2 years. Firstly because of Wilks/McCoy and that offense and this year because we didn’t attack the seams or target the slot very much. I still think Larry has 1000+ yards in him when Kliff takes the handcuffs off this offense.
I’d be amazed if he didn’t come back. He was saying only last week how much fun he was having. If he came back after Wilks/McCoy he’s coming back next year. I’m hoping for a discount. How much money does he need? -$9m
Kenyan Drake
Walter over at ROTB has been down on drake for his “Breaking in to the safe” celebration at the end of the season. He takes that to indicate Drake expects a top RB1 contract. I disagree.
When Drake was an Miami he was an under used rotational piece that never broke 650 yards. He was headed for a 400 yard season at best this year which meant he was looking at $2m max in free agency. Probably on a 1 or 2 year “prove it” deal.
His performances since joining the Cards have shifted that a great deal. He’s now looking at a $5-$6m 4 year deal. That’s a huge difference and that’s why he was taking the cash out of the safe.
We can’t really afford this deal. But DJ is gone after next year so there has to be 1 year overlap. -$5.75m
Brett Hundley
Every team needs a backup QB. He’s done well when asked. Knows the scheme, and is a local kid. I don’t see him going anywhere and the going rate for a backup is $3-$4m. -$3m
AQ Shipley
No player do I hate and like in equal measure as much as AQ. I like the guys attitude and tenacity. His back story. Seems like a good guy off the field. Can’t think of a more average player on the field. That’s generous, his ceiling is average.
But apparently Keim wants to sign him to a 2 year extension (so I read somewhere). Possibly at $5m per. Wait a sec……sorry puked on my keyboard a bit there. I’m going to try be a little more optimistic. -$4m
Zane Gonzalez
Zane has been great. I told everyone he would be. Walter over at ROTB wrote numerous articles about his love for Matt McCrane but his chicken legs don’t cut it. He’s RFA and he’s going to get a 2nd round tender so say goodbye to -$3.3m
Pharoh Cooper
I imagine they will keep one of Byrd and Cooper. As Cooper has been superb on returns and Byrd was a healthy scratch sometimes towards the end of the year I think it’s clear who it will be. -$2m
Cassius Marsh
While nothing special March has been ok as a rotational piece and he does what you need from a backup Edge. There isn’t much better on the market so stick with the guy that knows the scheme. -$2m
ST’s / Depth
Kevin Peterson and Joe Walker are both cheap ERFA’s. -$1.2m combined
You may have felt an impending sense of doom as you read through that list. It’s easy to forget how many of our own players we need to resign.
With that work done our remaining salary cap is……..
$26,875,000m
Ugh.
But not all is lost.
Steve Keim is the king of back weighting contracts so when players suck we can’t get out of their deals…I mean to save us some cap space on this year. A bunch of these are 1 or 2 year deals and low value so there is only so much he can do, but he can work with Hump and Drake for sure. Possibly Hundley and AQ.
For the purpose of this article a reasonable figure would be $34,000,000 in cap space once those back weighted deals are taken into account. 11 players have been added, so 6 roster spots remaining.
But wait! It’s get’s worse again because we also need $9m for the rookie draft pool. Back down to $25,000,000.
Players that are walking
Gunter
Kerr
Gilbert
Clay
Garcia
Reed
Mills
McDonald
Brandon Williams (at last)
Bullard
Byrd
Banjo
Washington (They won’t tender him but may sign as UFA)
DJ Foster
Josh Shaw
Where are we at now?
Let’s assess the state of the roster as it stands and see what we still need.
Offense
QB Room – Murray, Hundley
Status – Nothing more needed
WR Room – Fitz, Kirk, Isabella, Butler, Johnson, Cooper, Sherfield
Status – Some people will say a receiver is required. I say there is huge amounts of natural growth and that 1 year in the NFL for some, and 1 year in this scheme for all will see the whole room make strides. Butler is a new signing on his own.
RB Room – Drake, Johnson, Edmonds
Status – We started this season with 3 running backs and I don’t see it being any different next year. RB’s are abundant. If you need one later you can find one down the back of the sofa.
TE Room – Williams, Daniels, Arnold
Status – It’s shorter on experience than I would like but they seem to like Daniels and Arnold was a good pickup and RZ threat. I think they role with it as it is but it’s possible they pick up another vet.
OL room – Hump, Pugh, Shipley, Sweezy, Murray, Toth, Miles, Gaillard, Cole
Status – So many unknowns here with the depth. Are Gaillard and Miles NFL quality? We nothing of the former and 3 snaps from the latter. They kept both on the 53 all year so I’m guessing they see something they like. So many unknowns here it’s hard to say although I think it’s safe to say that vet depth is required.
The big question here is Murray a starting RT or a quality backup. They have to role the dice somewhere, they can’t fix everything and this seems like the most obvious place to “make do and mend”. Murray starts or Toth beats him out.
Overall on offense you can argue for it staying as it is. There are 24 players as it stands which is low. Because of that I’m going to say they add a vet tackle for depth. Probably LT so I’m ruling Gilbert out. We will get to that in FA.
Defense
DL room – Allen, Peters, Dogbe, Brown
Status – Yuck. I was disappointed in the 4 games we got from Zach Allen last season. I’m hoping time in the weight room and studying will see a big leap from him this year. Another player that’s hard to judge. Is he going to take a big leap and fill a whole or be a backup?
Missing - Either way 2 starting DT’s are required this off season as we can’t count on Allen taking that leap. I considered keeping Gunter here, he’s done well enough but I want better.
LB Room – Jones, Marsh, Reddick, Hicks, Walker, Vallejo, Turner, Gardeck
Status – Jones is a legend of course. Hicks did well and got better as the year went on (although I don’t believe he was nearly as good as some think). The rest you could set on fire and not miss.
Walker only got resigned because he’s cheap AF for ST’s but then Gardeck and Turner are better. Can you carry 3 LB’s just for ST’s? But then Walker seems to be above them in playing actual LB.
I’m cutting Walker.
Missing - a starting ILB and starting EDGE
Safety Room – Thompson Twins, Baker
Status – I was surprised to see Jalen overtake Deonte so clearly. Hard to know what this room will be in 2020. I still think Budda is a SS. You can’t have someone at FS with so little ball playing instincts.
Missing – Free Safety
CB room – Peterson, Alford, Murphy, Peterson, Jones,
Status – This room could literally be anything next year. I know pre season a lot of fans had P2, Alford and Murphy as a top trio of starting CB’s in the league. Then real life happened.
Is Alford cooked after his leg injury? Which P2 will we get? Will Murphy make the big strides he needs to make in man coverage or will playing slot suit his natural skills more?
I’m ok with Peterson and Jones as depth.
Missing – 1 vet depth player
Overall it’s clear defence needs much more work than the offense with requirements for 2 DT’s, 2 LB’s, a vet safety and a vet CB. That’s 6 players we need on defence which would bring us to 53 (as we cut Walker).
Needs going forward
Two DT’s, Edge, ILB, FS, CB, LT. We can do that with 6 draft picks and $25m to spend right?
Free Agency
What we do in the draft is all going to come down to what we do in free agency, as always. I’ve always felt this was ass backwards. Surely FA should be after the draft right? I’d like to see the draft brough forward to march with FA starting immediately after. But I digress…
There are position groups that are strong in FA and some that aren’t. WR and LT are both poor for example. The same applies to the draft, some groups are stronger than others. It’s important to know which groups are more likely in each.
The strongest groups in FA this year are LB, Defensive Interior, Edge, Safety, CB, QB, RB and TE in no particular order.
The strongest groups in the drafts are WR, OT, QB, and Defensive Interior. EDGE is ok, but you likely have to go top 2 rounds.
For free agency it seems clear that ILB, DT and Safety should be the focus in regards to starters. We also need a vet LT backup and a vet CB for depth.
Available Inside Linebackers
Danny Trevathan
Kyle Van Noy
Corey Littleton
Patrick Onwuasor
Reggie Ragland
Josh Bynes (Why Josh? Just why?)
Blake Martinez
Joe Schobert
Nick Kwiatkoski
Jon Bostic
There are other’s of course but I’ve left off the JAG’s. There are some guys here you won’t like but they are on the list because they are Keim’s type of JAG.
Corey Littleton get’s all the love. I feel like he’s played a season for us already. But you know what the problem with that is? Every other team that needs likebacker has fans saying “sign Corey Littleton”. He’s one of the best FA linebackers on the market and is going to get paid like one. We can’t afford Littleton with Hicks getting paid $10m+ on the cap.
Scratch Littleton.
Kyle Van Noy? I’m against signing anyone from the Pats. How many get better or stay the same upon leaving? Not many.
Onwuasor is too small.
Ragland is a 2 down backer and poor in coverage.
Bynes would have been great to have this year. I will never understand why we cut him. One of the worst decisions Keim ever made. The Raven’s aren’t letting him go.
Bostic is another 2 down backer who can’t cover.
These are the guys I think are Prime Keim candidates,
Blake Martinez – Mr Consistently average. Gets a ton of tackles every year but not where you want them (like Hicks). Rarely misses a game. Average in coverage. Should be a cheapish addition for an experience 3-4 backer but he thinks he’s a top backer in the league.
Joe Schobert – Word is the Brown’s are willing to let Schobert walk with Mack Wilson and Takitaki drafted last year. Makes sense. The former Pro Bowl linebacker has a problem with consistency but then he’s spent a lot of his time on horrible teams. If he can be average to good on bad teams what can he do on a good team? We will never find out if he signs here.
Danny Trevathan – Trevathan seems like the perfect Keim free agent. Like he was built in a lab just for this purpose. Ageing? Check (Now 30). Coming off injury? Check (I think his arm now bends both ways). Equals possible cheap pick up.
If you haven’t seen Trevathans gruesome arm injury from last season then don’t go and watch it. Trevathan is the perfect mix…You just Googled it didn’t you? Told you. As I was saying, he that perfect mix of age, experience and injury that Keim loves where he hopes he can suck out those last bits of juice with a straw that are stuck in a corner. Currently on $7m per he’s not getting paid more at age 30. Good in coverage and run stopping and used to the 3-4 my main concern is Trevathan is used to being the quarterback of the defense. Can he exist alongside Hicks?
Nick Kwiatkoski – Trevathan’s backup at the Bears. The Bears are only going to keep one of them and Kwiatkoski is only 26. If they do keep Trevathan then this guy might be an option. Not awesome at anything but a decent all rounder. But can he replicate decent form in a not so good much worse defense.
My preference would be for Schobert due to age and I think you could get good value because I can see him signing somewhere for around $10m per and he has a lot of upside, but realistically it’s probably too much for us even with some backloading.
Signing: Danny Travathan – 2 years at $6m average (-$4.5m from this years cap)
Available Defensive Interior ($20.5m left in cap space)
For me defensive interior is a position that gets overlooked when it comes to scheme fit. Fans in general seems to have little appreciation of whether guys can play 3-4 or 4-3, whether they can 1 gap or 2 gap and so forth. Cardinals fans probably have more appreciation of this than most having switched schemes numerous times over the last 10 years and seem players either flourish or drop off each time.
Personally, I’m wary of paying big money to any DT/DE that hasn’t played in a similar scheme that you are signing then for. You can end up with a $15m dollar paper weight. For this reason I’m only including players that do or have played 3-4 and succeeded.
Chris Jones
Leonard Williams
Shelby Harris
Michael Brocker
Ndamukong Suh
Gerald McCoy
Derek Wolfe
Mike Daniels
Vernon Butler
Timmy Jernigan
Jordan Philips
Danny Shelton
Michael Pierce
Javon Hargrave
DJ Reader
The big get here is Chris Jones, if only we had signed him instead of Diche. The problem is Jones is going to get paid $17m+ a year. The only way we do it is if we forget everything else in free agency except the depth guys at LT and CB. And even then we have to back weight his deal. My feeling is that Jones resigns with the Chiefs. Why would he leave a team that are super bowl contenders?
Similarly, Javon Hargrave is super talented, but he's a NT that had 4 sacks last year. With the money we have I'm not paying big bucks to a guy that isn't a massive upgrade over what we have. Same applies to DJ Reader.
There are some good gap fillers here. Suh and McCoy would bet great vet additions and still perform despite their advancing years. Both would cost high single figures.
Brockers would be a decent option, not top end but an upgrade on what we have for sure. Likely $8-$9m per. Mike Daniels is falling to pieces, so seems like someone Keim would pick up. Maybe he would be cheap vet depth and experience on the line. A situational piece. Harris and Wolfe don’t excite me but know Joseph and again would add experience. Has Leonard Williams ever done anything? I can't bring myself to pay him for 1 decent season.
Vernon Butler is coming off a career year but I'm super wary of paying guys with 1 year of production.
I’m not going to go for any of these. I’m going to add a player I think will get cut as a cap casualty. Calais Campbell.
The Jags need money and Campbell's production fell a lot this past year, although he still had 6.5 sacks. The Jag’s don’t owe him anything in guarantees and can save $15m on the cap by cutting him.
He loves the team. Still have a home and friends here and would be the perfect fit of experience and production for this defense.
Signing: Calais Campbell - $2 years at $9m per (-$9m off this years cap)
************Below added later***************
The Draft
As things are our needs are,
Edge (need to be a guy that can start right away)
DT (Starter would be nice but rotation works for now)
FS (Starter would be good if we move Budda to the box, but if not can be depth to start)
CB (Development piece and backup for now)
We can of course skip FS or CB depth, they are not crucial. If a player lands that you just can’t pass up then there is some flexibility.
We only have 4 rounds to do it because our 5th is gone in the Drake trade. As our roster already has so many draft picks from last year it’s likely our 6th and 7th rounders go to the PS. Unless they are a specialist like KR that can replace someone else.
For the purposes of this draft I will do multiple drafts using The Draft Networks mock draft machine. Bare in mind it’s so early in the process this is all but useless, so just a bit of fun for now.
Round 1
Through 5 drafts players consistently available were Thomas, Wirfs, Epenesa, Simmons and Lamb. Brown and Jeudy fell once. As I think either of them being there at 8 is possible, I’ll stick with the first 5.
I really want to take Simmons. He could fill a number of holes but ultimately, I don’t trust Joseph to not ruin him. Plus, in this scenario we really need a starting Edge. So, I’m going with Epenesa. You can make your own choice.
Round 2
Through the 5 the guys that were consistently available were Mechi Becton, Neville Gallimore, Raekwon Davis, Etienne, Weaver, Okwara, Lewis and Gladney.
I love the freak that is Becton. Very tough not to take him here for backup LT. A dude that size with those feet…Davis is another solid pick. As is Gladney. Really you can pick any of those guys and I wouldn’t mind but I passed on one freak in round 1. I’m not missing on Becton. Although in reality I think he goes in round 1.
Becton comes in. Josh Miles goes to the PS.
Round 3
The talent is getting thinner now but still some good options.
Chuba Hubbard and Cam Akers are still around. As are Zack Moss and Najee Harris. Leki Fotu is there, but he’s too NT for me to take. But the guys that stick out for me are Ross Blacklock, Justin Madubuike, Netane Muti, Cesar Ruiz and Quartney Davis.
I can’t pass on Madubuike with our needs. I’m looking for more interior pressure and this guy has it.
Round 4
There are a whole bunch of running backs consistently available at the top of the 4th. Zach Moss again who would be a steal at #104. As is Najee.
Usche is still around but we have an Edge already. Jordan Elliott the Mizzou DT. Michael Pittman and Denzel Mims.
Nothing much inspired me so I went with Mims for his athleticism and catch radius. He has something our other options don’t have and should contribute on special teams.
Drafting his hard. No matter what your needs you have to go with what is available.
Conclusion
We worked through Free Agency logically but when it comes to the draft you have to work with the chips that fall to you. I ended up with a tackle I didn’t plan on, but at least was needed and a WR I had no intention of drafting but was BPA.
The overall point of this exercise was to how that we don’t have a lot of money. This off season is going to be very much like last off season. Looking for value in free agency and drafting what falls to us.
While a Chris Jones or Corey Littleton is possible it’s highly unlikely and would limit other areas of the team.
One thing is for sure, hitting on those top 4 draft picks is crucial.
What would you change? Who would you add?
The truth is that right now we have somewhere in the region of $66.5m. Roughly what we had last year at this point. This is actually down a bit from $74m when I last saw it a few weeks ago but that’s because it’s now counting a bunch of camp guys like Dora, Chachere, Fitts, Dora etc that aren’t likely to make the final 53.
For the purposes of this article I’m only interested in the cap space on cut day next year for the final 53 man roster. If I take those guys out that leaves us just over $71m if the salary cap is raised to where expected, but only 36 players. Let’s find the 17 other we need.
This article will cover what I expect Keim to do based on what we are hearing and his past tendencies. At the end I think you will see why something different is required which I will cover in replies.
Team needs
As things stand with those 36 players on the roster there are a lot of needs.
· The only real EDGE guy on the roster is Chandler Jones. We could argue about Reddick here but at best he’s depth. We certainly need at least 2 Edge guys, one of them a starter.
· Both starting tackles are gone and only one backup. Big need there.
· Starting C is gone
· Larry is gone. So no WR1.
· We have been starting scrubs at LB. A partner for Hicks is a big need.
· This team has been crying out for a top end interior defensive linemen. Big need.
· I think the consensus is that barring a miracle DJ is done as a RB1. So running back is a need.
· Kicker. Zane is RFA.
· There is no backup QB’s on the roster.
· A bunch of depth at various positions included DT, Edge, OL, S, CB, TE
Those are some expensive starting positions we need to fill.
Our own free agents
Word is (and this word comes from ROTB so take that how you like) is that the FO want to re-sign a bunch of our own Free Agents.
DJ Humphries
I heard they offered Hump $11m per which they turned down right away. The expected landing spot for whatever team signs him is $14m per. So that what we will use for this exercise. -$14m
Justin Murray
Justin Murray was impressive considering he was a late waiver wire flyer after Gilbert went down (and Keim traded Cunningham). His final PFF grade was barely any different to Humps. More pleasing is that Murray’s grades got considerable better as the season went on and he was outperforming Hump at the end of the year.
Murray is ERFA so a 1 year tender would only cost $585,000. A no brainer. -$585,000
Larry Fitzgerald
Larry. Larry. Larry.
I actually don’t think Larry has lost much. I think we have severely under used him the last 2 years. Firstly because of Wilks/McCoy and that offense and this year because we didn’t attack the seams or target the slot very much. I still think Larry has 1000+ yards in him when Kliff takes the handcuffs off this offense.
I’d be amazed if he didn’t come back. He was saying only last week how much fun he was having. If he came back after Wilks/McCoy he’s coming back next year. I’m hoping for a discount. How much money does he need? -$9m
Kenyan Drake
Walter over at ROTB has been down on drake for his “Breaking in to the safe” celebration at the end of the season. He takes that to indicate Drake expects a top RB1 contract. I disagree.
When Drake was an Miami he was an under used rotational piece that never broke 650 yards. He was headed for a 400 yard season at best this year which meant he was looking at $2m max in free agency. Probably on a 1 or 2 year “prove it” deal.
His performances since joining the Cards have shifted that a great deal. He’s now looking at a $5-$6m 4 year deal. That’s a huge difference and that’s why he was taking the cash out of the safe.
We can’t really afford this deal. But DJ is gone after next year so there has to be 1 year overlap. -$5.75m
Brett Hundley
Every team needs a backup QB. He’s done well when asked. Knows the scheme, and is a local kid. I don’t see him going anywhere and the going rate for a backup is $3-$4m. -$3m
AQ Shipley
No player do I hate and like in equal measure as much as AQ. I like the guys attitude and tenacity. His back story. Seems like a good guy off the field. Can’t think of a more average player on the field. That’s generous, his ceiling is average.
But apparently Keim wants to sign him to a 2 year extension (so I read somewhere). Possibly at $5m per. Wait a sec……sorry puked on my keyboard a bit there. I’m going to try be a little more optimistic. -$4m
Zane Gonzalez
Zane has been great. I told everyone he would be. Walter over at ROTB wrote numerous articles about his love for Matt McCrane but his chicken legs don’t cut it. He’s RFA and he’s going to get a 2nd round tender so say goodbye to -$3.3m
Pharoh Cooper
I imagine they will keep one of Byrd and Cooper. As Cooper has been superb on returns and Byrd was a healthy scratch sometimes towards the end of the year I think it’s clear who it will be. -$2m
Cassius Marsh
While nothing special March has been ok as a rotational piece and he does what you need from a backup Edge. There isn’t much better on the market so stick with the guy that knows the scheme. -$2m
ST’s / Depth
Kevin Peterson and Joe Walker are both cheap ERFA’s. -$1.2m combined
You may have felt an impending sense of doom as you read through that list. It’s easy to forget how many of our own players we need to resign.
With that work done our remaining salary cap is……..
$26,875,000m
Ugh.
But not all is lost.
Steve Keim is the king of back weighting contracts so when players suck we can’t get out of their deals…I mean to save us some cap space on this year. A bunch of these are 1 or 2 year deals and low value so there is only so much he can do, but he can work with Hump and Drake for sure. Possibly Hundley and AQ.
For the purpose of this article a reasonable figure would be $34,000,000 in cap space once those back weighted deals are taken into account. 11 players have been added, so 6 roster spots remaining.
But wait! It’s get’s worse again because we also need $9m for the rookie draft pool. Back down to $25,000,000.
Players that are walking
Gunter
Kerr
Gilbert
Clay
Garcia
Reed
Mills
McDonald
Brandon Williams (at last)
Bullard
Byrd
Banjo
Washington (They won’t tender him but may sign as UFA)
DJ Foster
Josh Shaw
Where are we at now?
Let’s assess the state of the roster as it stands and see what we still need.
Offense
QB Room – Murray, Hundley
Status – Nothing more needed
WR Room – Fitz, Kirk, Isabella, Butler, Johnson, Cooper, Sherfield
Status – Some people will say a receiver is required. I say there is huge amounts of natural growth and that 1 year in the NFL for some, and 1 year in this scheme for all will see the whole room make strides. Butler is a new signing on his own.
RB Room – Drake, Johnson, Edmonds
Status – We started this season with 3 running backs and I don’t see it being any different next year. RB’s are abundant. If you need one later you can find one down the back of the sofa.
TE Room – Williams, Daniels, Arnold
Status – It’s shorter on experience than I would like but they seem to like Daniels and Arnold was a good pickup and RZ threat. I think they role with it as it is but it’s possible they pick up another vet.
OL room – Hump, Pugh, Shipley, Sweezy, Murray, Toth, Miles, Gaillard, Cole
Status – So many unknowns here with the depth. Are Gaillard and Miles NFL quality? We nothing of the former and 3 snaps from the latter. They kept both on the 53 all year so I’m guessing they see something they like. So many unknowns here it’s hard to say although I think it’s safe to say that vet depth is required.
The big question here is Murray a starting RT or a quality backup. They have to role the dice somewhere, they can’t fix everything and this seems like the most obvious place to “make do and mend”. Murray starts or Toth beats him out.
Overall on offense you can argue for it staying as it is. There are 24 players as it stands which is low. Because of that I’m going to say they add a vet tackle for depth. Probably LT so I’m ruling Gilbert out. We will get to that in FA.
Defense
DL room – Allen, Peters, Dogbe, Brown
Status – Yuck. I was disappointed in the 4 games we got from Zach Allen last season. I’m hoping time in the weight room and studying will see a big leap from him this year. Another player that’s hard to judge. Is he going to take a big leap and fill a whole or be a backup?
Missing - Either way 2 starting DT’s are required this off season as we can’t count on Allen taking that leap. I considered keeping Gunter here, he’s done well enough but I want better.
LB Room – Jones, Marsh, Reddick, Hicks, Walker, Vallejo, Turner, Gardeck
Status – Jones is a legend of course. Hicks did well and got better as the year went on (although I don’t believe he was nearly as good as some think). The rest you could set on fire and not miss.
Walker only got resigned because he’s cheap AF for ST’s but then Gardeck and Turner are better. Can you carry 3 LB’s just for ST’s? But then Walker seems to be above them in playing actual LB.
I’m cutting Walker.
Missing - a starting ILB and starting EDGE
Safety Room – Thompson Twins, Baker
Status – I was surprised to see Jalen overtake Deonte so clearly. Hard to know what this room will be in 2020. I still think Budda is a SS. You can’t have someone at FS with so little ball playing instincts.
Missing – Free Safety
CB room – Peterson, Alford, Murphy, Peterson, Jones,
Status – This room could literally be anything next year. I know pre season a lot of fans had P2, Alford and Murphy as a top trio of starting CB’s in the league. Then real life happened.
Is Alford cooked after his leg injury? Which P2 will we get? Will Murphy make the big strides he needs to make in man coverage or will playing slot suit his natural skills more?
I’m ok with Peterson and Jones as depth.
Missing – 1 vet depth player
Overall it’s clear defence needs much more work than the offense with requirements for 2 DT’s, 2 LB’s, a vet safety and a vet CB. That’s 6 players we need on defence which would bring us to 53 (as we cut Walker).
Needs going forward
Two DT’s, Edge, ILB, FS, CB, LT. We can do that with 6 draft picks and $25m to spend right?
Free Agency
What we do in the draft is all going to come down to what we do in free agency, as always. I’ve always felt this was ass backwards. Surely FA should be after the draft right? I’d like to see the draft brough forward to march with FA starting immediately after. But I digress…
There are position groups that are strong in FA and some that aren’t. WR and LT are both poor for example. The same applies to the draft, some groups are stronger than others. It’s important to know which groups are more likely in each.
The strongest groups in FA this year are LB, Defensive Interior, Edge, Safety, CB, QB, RB and TE in no particular order.
The strongest groups in the drafts are WR, OT, QB, and Defensive Interior. EDGE is ok, but you likely have to go top 2 rounds.
For free agency it seems clear that ILB, DT and Safety should be the focus in regards to starters. We also need a vet LT backup and a vet CB for depth.
Available Inside Linebackers
Danny Trevathan
Kyle Van Noy
Corey Littleton
Patrick Onwuasor
Reggie Ragland
Josh Bynes (Why Josh? Just why?)
Blake Martinez
Joe Schobert
Nick Kwiatkoski
Jon Bostic
There are other’s of course but I’ve left off the JAG’s. There are some guys here you won’t like but they are on the list because they are Keim’s type of JAG.
Corey Littleton get’s all the love. I feel like he’s played a season for us already. But you know what the problem with that is? Every other team that needs likebacker has fans saying “sign Corey Littleton”. He’s one of the best FA linebackers on the market and is going to get paid like one. We can’t afford Littleton with Hicks getting paid $10m+ on the cap.
Scratch Littleton.
Kyle Van Noy? I’m against signing anyone from the Pats. How many get better or stay the same upon leaving? Not many.
Onwuasor is too small.
Ragland is a 2 down backer and poor in coverage.
Bynes would have been great to have this year. I will never understand why we cut him. One of the worst decisions Keim ever made. The Raven’s aren’t letting him go.
Bostic is another 2 down backer who can’t cover.
These are the guys I think are Prime Keim candidates,
Blake Martinez – Mr Consistently average. Gets a ton of tackles every year but not where you want them (like Hicks). Rarely misses a game. Average in coverage. Should be a cheapish addition for an experience 3-4 backer but he thinks he’s a top backer in the league.
Joe Schobert – Word is the Brown’s are willing to let Schobert walk with Mack Wilson and Takitaki drafted last year. Makes sense. The former Pro Bowl linebacker has a problem with consistency but then he’s spent a lot of his time on horrible teams. If he can be average to good on bad teams what can he do on a good team? We will never find out if he signs here.
Danny Trevathan – Trevathan seems like the perfect Keim free agent. Like he was built in a lab just for this purpose. Ageing? Check (Now 30). Coming off injury? Check (I think his arm now bends both ways). Equals possible cheap pick up.
If you haven’t seen Trevathans gruesome arm injury from last season then don’t go and watch it. Trevathan is the perfect mix…You just Googled it didn’t you? Told you. As I was saying, he that perfect mix of age, experience and injury that Keim loves where he hopes he can suck out those last bits of juice with a straw that are stuck in a corner. Currently on $7m per he’s not getting paid more at age 30. Good in coverage and run stopping and used to the 3-4 my main concern is Trevathan is used to being the quarterback of the defense. Can he exist alongside Hicks?
Nick Kwiatkoski – Trevathan’s backup at the Bears. The Bears are only going to keep one of them and Kwiatkoski is only 26. If they do keep Trevathan then this guy might be an option. Not awesome at anything but a decent all rounder. But can he replicate decent form in a not so good much worse defense.
My preference would be for Schobert due to age and I think you could get good value because I can see him signing somewhere for around $10m per and he has a lot of upside, but realistically it’s probably too much for us even with some backloading.
Signing: Danny Travathan – 2 years at $6m average (-$4.5m from this years cap)
Available Defensive Interior ($20.5m left in cap space)
For me defensive interior is a position that gets overlooked when it comes to scheme fit. Fans in general seems to have little appreciation of whether guys can play 3-4 or 4-3, whether they can 1 gap or 2 gap and so forth. Cardinals fans probably have more appreciation of this than most having switched schemes numerous times over the last 10 years and seem players either flourish or drop off each time.
Personally, I’m wary of paying big money to any DT/DE that hasn’t played in a similar scheme that you are signing then for. You can end up with a $15m dollar paper weight. For this reason I’m only including players that do or have played 3-4 and succeeded.
Chris Jones
Leonard Williams
Shelby Harris
Michael Brocker
Ndamukong Suh
Gerald McCoy
Derek Wolfe
Mike Daniels
Vernon Butler
Timmy Jernigan
Jordan Philips
Danny Shelton
Michael Pierce
Javon Hargrave
DJ Reader
The big get here is Chris Jones, if only we had signed him instead of Diche. The problem is Jones is going to get paid $17m+ a year. The only way we do it is if we forget everything else in free agency except the depth guys at LT and CB. And even then we have to back weight his deal. My feeling is that Jones resigns with the Chiefs. Why would he leave a team that are super bowl contenders?
Similarly, Javon Hargrave is super talented, but he's a NT that had 4 sacks last year. With the money we have I'm not paying big bucks to a guy that isn't a massive upgrade over what we have. Same applies to DJ Reader.
There are some good gap fillers here. Suh and McCoy would bet great vet additions and still perform despite their advancing years. Both would cost high single figures.
Brockers would be a decent option, not top end but an upgrade on what we have for sure. Likely $8-$9m per. Mike Daniels is falling to pieces, so seems like someone Keim would pick up. Maybe he would be cheap vet depth and experience on the line. A situational piece. Harris and Wolfe don’t excite me but know Joseph and again would add experience. Has Leonard Williams ever done anything? I can't bring myself to pay him for 1 decent season.
Vernon Butler is coming off a career year but I'm super wary of paying guys with 1 year of production.
I’m not going to go for any of these. I’m going to add a player I think will get cut as a cap casualty. Calais Campbell.
The Jags need money and Campbell's production fell a lot this past year, although he still had 6.5 sacks. The Jag’s don’t owe him anything in guarantees and can save $15m on the cap by cutting him.
He loves the team. Still have a home and friends here and would be the perfect fit of experience and production for this defense.
Signing: Calais Campbell - $2 years at $9m per (-$9m off this years cap)
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The Draft
As things are our needs are,
Edge (need to be a guy that can start right away)
DT (Starter would be nice but rotation works for now)
FS (Starter would be good if we move Budda to the box, but if not can be depth to start)
CB (Development piece and backup for now)
We can of course skip FS or CB depth, they are not crucial. If a player lands that you just can’t pass up then there is some flexibility.
We only have 4 rounds to do it because our 5th is gone in the Drake trade. As our roster already has so many draft picks from last year it’s likely our 6th and 7th rounders go to the PS. Unless they are a specialist like KR that can replace someone else.
For the purposes of this draft I will do multiple drafts using The Draft Networks mock draft machine. Bare in mind it’s so early in the process this is all but useless, so just a bit of fun for now.
Round 1
Through 5 drafts players consistently available were Thomas, Wirfs, Epenesa, Simmons and Lamb. Brown and Jeudy fell once. As I think either of them being there at 8 is possible, I’ll stick with the first 5.
I really want to take Simmons. He could fill a number of holes but ultimately, I don’t trust Joseph to not ruin him. Plus, in this scenario we really need a starting Edge. So, I’m going with Epenesa. You can make your own choice.
Round 2
Through the 5 the guys that were consistently available were Mechi Becton, Neville Gallimore, Raekwon Davis, Etienne, Weaver, Okwara, Lewis and Gladney.
I love the freak that is Becton. Very tough not to take him here for backup LT. A dude that size with those feet…Davis is another solid pick. As is Gladney. Really you can pick any of those guys and I wouldn’t mind but I passed on one freak in round 1. I’m not missing on Becton. Although in reality I think he goes in round 1.
Becton comes in. Josh Miles goes to the PS.
Round 3
The talent is getting thinner now but still some good options.
Chuba Hubbard and Cam Akers are still around. As are Zack Moss and Najee Harris. Leki Fotu is there, but he’s too NT for me to take. But the guys that stick out for me are Ross Blacklock, Justin Madubuike, Netane Muti, Cesar Ruiz and Quartney Davis.
I can’t pass on Madubuike with our needs. I’m looking for more interior pressure and this guy has it.
Round 4
There are a whole bunch of running backs consistently available at the top of the 4th. Zach Moss again who would be a steal at #104. As is Najee.
Usche is still around but we have an Edge already. Jordan Elliott the Mizzou DT. Michael Pittman and Denzel Mims.
Nothing much inspired me so I went with Mims for his athleticism and catch radius. He has something our other options don’t have and should contribute on special teams.
Drafting his hard. No matter what your needs you have to go with what is available.
Conclusion
We worked through Free Agency logically but when it comes to the draft you have to work with the chips that fall to you. I ended up with a tackle I didn’t plan on, but at least was needed and a WR I had no intention of drafting but was BPA.
The overall point of this exercise was to how that we don’t have a lot of money. This off season is going to be very much like last off season. Looking for value in free agency and drafting what falls to us.
While a Chris Jones or Corey Littleton is possible it’s highly unlikely and would limit other areas of the team.
One thing is for sure, hitting on those top 4 draft picks is crucial.
What would you change? Who would you add?
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