What is the plan?

[CardsSunsDbacks]

It is not me who wants to get into advanced stats, everyone else - especially NBA teams - does.

Evaluating players based on their basic stats was out of date even 5 years ago.

https://www.basketball-reference.co...gton&y2=2018&player_id2=covinro01&idx=players

If you look at the side by side comparison of the two you will see that Saric had a pretty sizeable advantage in almost every offensive category both basic and advanced. Covington of course has better defensive metrics, but overall they are pretty close to even from a stats standpoint. Then factor in that Saric was only in his 3rd year and Covington in his 6th when the trade happened. Thus upside and contract favored Saric as he was still on his rookie deal and Covington on a 4/40 contract.

 

[Phrazbit]

Saric being a defensive disaster is also overblown. He had a neutral impact for Minnesota defensively and in 17/18 in Philly the Sixers actually defended ever so slightly better with him on the court.

He's a solid player, just not sexy and... he's going to need a new contract in a year.

I don't have an issue with Saric or Cam Johnson being on the team, I just felt the #6 pick, even in this marginal draft, was worth more than a decent power forward who has free agency pending and a specialist shooter.

 

[boisesuns]

Will we come out of free agency with a clearer sense of a plan? Doubt it!

It’s starting to feel like our best hope is a massive leap in abilities from people already signed.

 

[Hoop Head]

It is not me who wants to get into advanced stats, everyone else - especially NBA teams - does.

Evaluating players based on their basic stats was out of date even 5 years ago.

You asked what stats say Saric is almost equal in value to Covington and I provided them. If you wanted stats to back your narrative then you'll have to find them yourself.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Will we come out of free agency with a clearer sense of a plan? Doubt it!

It’s starting to feel like our best hope is a massive leap in abilities from people already signed.

Is the plan not already clear? This entire off season so far has been about 2 main things and that is filling out the roster with NBA talent and posturing for a big signing in free agency (mainly to target a starting PG).

So far we have lost 1 rotation player and added at least 2 with a decent chance of the 2 rookies giving us some good minutes this year as well and that is while freeing up some cap space at the same time.

We are starting to legitimately look like we are one PG signing away from a big leap forward next season.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Collecting assets and winning trades is not always the same as team building.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Is the plan not already clear? This entire off season so far has been about 2 main things and that is filling out the roster with NBA talent and posturing for a big signing in free agency (mainly to target a starting PG).

So far we have lost 1 rotation player and added at least 2 with a decent chance of the 2 rookies giving us some good minutes this year as well and that is while freeing up some cap space at the same time.

We are starting to legitimately look like we are one PG signing away from a big leap forward next season.

I don't know how the team did this, I thought that was all just fan speculation? I'm sure we'll sign a big name if the opportunity presents, I just never expected it to actually happen. And given that we were told some time ago by the team's occasional mouthpiece that Tyler Johnson was going to be our starting PG, I don't believe the team ever really expected it to happen either.

I think the plan was obvious if not glamorous. Get rid of a malcontent and bring in plug and play guys instead of long term projects. Cam Johnson isn't a veteran but for a rookie, he's as close as you can get. Ty Jerome has a fairly developed game too. Saric is the perfect age to add maturity to this roster while still being able to grow with the group if he fits in this season.

 

[Hoop Head]

Is the plan not already clear? This entire off season so far has been about 2 main things and that is filling out the roster with NBA talent and posturing for a big signing in free agency (mainly to target a starting PG).

So far we have lost 1 rotation player and added at least 2 with a decent chance of the 2 rookies giving us some good minutes this year as well and that is while freeing up some cap space at the same time.

We are starting to legitimately look like we are one PG signing away from a big leap forward next season.

This is important. I think we can leapfrog Sacramento next year and possibly even Dallas in the West, if we land the right PG. Will we be a playoff team? I don't think so, but we shouldn't be the first team eliminated from playoff contention either.

I'm already prepared to see people lose their mind when we sign a PG though. It seems like so many people are in the "Russell or bust" frame of mind that I can see "Draft Day Part Deux" here on the forum. I hope it's not as bad but we'll see what happens. I won't even get into who I want and who I'd be ok with because there is sort of a calm that is slowly happening here that I don't want to throw it off.

 

[Hoop Head]

I don't know how the team did this, I thought that was all just fan speculation? I'm sure we'll sign a big name if the opportunity presents, I just never expected it to actually happen. And given that we were told some time ago by the team's occasional mouthpiece that Tyler Johnson was going to be our starting PG, I don't believe the team ever really expected it to happen either.

I think the plan was obvious if not glamorous. Get rid of a malcontent and bring in plug and play guys instead of long term projects. Cam Johnson isn't a veteran but for a rookie, he's as close as you can get. Ty Jerome has a fairly developed game too. Saric is the perfect age to add maturity to this roster while still being able to grow with the group if he fits in this season.

I think you're taking what CSDB said the wrong way, or at least differently than how I interpreted it. He said....

This entire off season so far has been about 2 main things and that is filling out the roster with NBA talent and posturing for a big signing in free agency (mainly to target a starting PG).

Posturing for a BIG SIGNING in free agency is not signing a big name free agent. He also added that we'd be targeting a starting PG and that is how I view things also. The Suns have positioned themselves to address the PG position and they have the money to add a starting PG, not a star PG but a starting PG should be possible with the funds available. We'll have more than the MLE and that should allow us to outbid other teams that are looking to add mid-level starters like Rubio, Collison, Derrick Rose, or Tyus Jones without breaking the bank either.

I know people will be angry about the reality of the situation being those guys are what's available instead of Brogdon, Russell, or Kemba Walker but the Suns don't need a star PG to move forward, they only need a competent starter and I think those players can be more than competent for us, next to Booker. Rubio was the starter on a good Jazz team, Collison was the starter on a good Pacers club, Rose played better than he has since he left Chicago, and Tyus Jones is poised to breakout with an increased role. Maybe I'm too optimistic about them but I can't see them being disasters, except maybe Rose, but I'd be willing to take my chances on them for a fraction of the price of Russell, who may not fit well next to Booker. I know Russell and Booker would be terrible defensively and I'm not sure their offense would be enough to make up for that.

 

[hcsilla]

https://www.basketball-reference.co...gton&y2=2018&player_id2=covinro01&idx=players

If you look at the side by side comparison of the two you will see that Saric had a pretty sizeable advantage in almost every offensive category both basic and advanced. Covington of course has better defensive metrics, but overall they are pretty close to even from a stats standpoint.

That is from last season (not from 2017/18), the difference in Covington's favour is much bigger:

https://www.basketball-reference.co...gton&y2=2019&player_id2=covinro01&idx=players


Also ESPN's RPM values Covington much higher than Saric:

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/position/5

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/position/6

Then factor in that Saric was only in his 3rd year and Covington in his 6th when the trade happened. Thus upside

Saric's upside is probably pretty limited or even close to zero. He was a seasoned veteran when joined the NBA, he already played 3 season in croatian league and Euroleague.

and contract favored Saric as he was still on his rookie deal and Covington on a 4/40 contract.

That is a very minor factor as well, since the Butler-trade would have needed a salary filler (if Covington still would have been on his rookie deal) anyway to match Butler's salary, and even if a filler would have been an expiring contract that offers only a one-season advantage since Saric will get paid next summer (if he earns it).

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

That is from last season (not from 2017/18), the difference in Covington's favour is much bigger:

https://www.basketball-reference.co...gton&y2=2019&player_id2=covinro01&idx=players


Also ESPN's RPM values Covington much higher than Saric:

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/position/5

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/position/6




Saric's upside is probably pretty limited or even close to zero. He was a seasoned veteran when joined the NBA, he already played 3 season in croatian league and Euroleague.

and contract favored Saric as he was still on his rookie deal and Covington on a 4/40 contract.

That is a very minor factor as well, since the Butler-trade would have needed a salary filler (if Covington still would have been on his rookie deal) anyway to match Butler's salary, and even if a filler would have been an expiring contract that offers only a one-season advantage since Saric will get paid next summer (if he earns it).

I used 2017/18 because it had more bearing on the trade than last year's stats. They had only played like 13 games last season when the trade went down. The point I am trying to make is that the trade was to receive both of those guys pretty equally and not mostly for Covington with Saric as a throw in.

 

[Chaplin]

Saric wasn’t a throw-in. Come on now. We are all experts in trying to justify unrealistic negativity.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think you're taking what CSDB said the wrong way, or at least differently than how I interpreted it. He said....
Posturing for a BIG SIGNING in free agency is not signing a big name free agent.

I don't think I misinterpreted it, more likely I didn't make my response clear. I meant it the same way he did, I just don't think we made any moves in an effort to make a big signing (or a big named free agent signing, however you choose to word it). We cleared cap space with an eye to improving the roster and I doubt we would have turned away an opportunity to add someone like Russell but I don't believe we ever thought it was likely.

 

[hcsilla]

Saric being a defensive disaster is also overblown. He had a neutral impact for Minnesota defensively

Where did you get this from?

I just happened to see Saric a lot in both MIN and PHI and I just did not like his defense at all. He is fundamentally sound in defense but quite slow and has zero lift, therefore could not defend the perimeter, neither the rim, and always seemed like a weak point of the defense.

He's a solid player, just not sexy and... he's going to need a new contract in a year

Unless he improves significantly, I'm not really scared of his new contract, if he gets one in the NBA. Based on his NBA-career I doubt that there will be a strong competition for his services.

 

[hcsilla]

You asked what stats say Saric is almost equal in value to Covington and I provided them.

No, you did not.

Basic stats do not provide enough information to decide whether two players have almost equal value or not.

 

[1Sun]

No, you did not.

Basic stats do not provide enough information to decide whether two player have almost equal value or not.

Particularly where one is an elite defender and the other is one of the worst defenders in the NBA.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Particularly where one is an elite defender and the other is one of the worst defenders in the NBA.

Half of that statement is a gross exaggeration and you know it. The reason I know you know it is that you have already identified a bunch of players that you insist are among the worst defenders in the league. They can't all be the worst, it doesn't work like that.

I watched Saric play almost every game in Philadelphia and he was not a problem defensively. Sure, he was protected and supported by some excellent individual and team defenders but he fit in nicely. He looked out of place on Minnesota but I didn't watch them often so maybe he really was a problem there but AFAIC he's shown he can fit into a decent team defense structure. Not that we've ever had that but with a new coaching staff comes new hopes.

 

[Carolinacacti]

Will we come out of free agency with a clearer sense of a plan? Doubt it!

It’s starting to feel like our best hope is a massive leap in abilities from people already signed.

This and that includes Booker. Ayton has to step it up or its back to back to back losing seasons.

 

[SunnyBaller]

This and that includes Booker. Ayton has to step it up or its back to back to back losing seasons.

I think monty should be able to use Ayton correctly which will help he do better this year, but the one I'm curious about is how much of a leap bridges can make this year, if he adds some more offense to his game he can be the number 3 to Booker and Ayton

 

[Mainstreet]

Attaching an asset to Jackson would be bad, really bad. We should let him warm the bench before doing that. At least there's a chance someone would take a chance on him later if they got an injured player exception or something later in the year. I could see a team like Golden State being interested in adding him for nothing if they end up getting exceptions for KD and Klay. He's a high pick that would cost nothing and he's better than the undrafted free agents they'll add this summer. Jackson has proven he can contribute but I think he needs strong vets to keep him in line, which is something the Suns lack.

If it comes down to it we can stretch him. That's preferable to attaching an asset since we'd only be on the hook for roughly $2.35 million a year for the next 3 years, which isn't too bad and is definitely preferable to losing a future 1st or high 2nd. I don't want to waive and stretch him either but if it's that or attaching a 1st, I think most here would prefer waiving. We'd open up about $4.7 million in cap space that way as well. That's not $7 but again, we won't owe a 1st.

I'm for hanging on to Jackson rather than attach an asset like a first round pick as well.

A waive and stretch would be a better option if there are no takers.

There is still a chance he can mature into the player the Suns hoped they drafted. It's just bad business attaching draft picks to move players like what happened with Kurt Thomas. I doubt if a second round draft pick is enough to move him and if it were, it might take more than one. Second round picks seem to be more valuable than they once were especially with the 2022 draft looming on the horizon which will be sort of a double class.

There is still a chance a team like the Warriors, as you point out, may want him as things shake out. Also teams are usually in love with their roster to start every season but as reality sets in, they are more willing to make trades later on.

 

[1Sun]

Half of that statement is a gross exaggeration and you know it. The reason I know you know it is that you have already identified a bunch of players that you insist are among the worst defenders in the league. They can't all be the worst, it doesn't work like that.

I watched Saric play almost every game in Philadelphia and he was not a problem defensively. Sure, he was protected and supported by some excellent individual and team defenders but he fit in nicely. He looked out of place on Minnesota but I didn't watch them often so maybe he really was a problem there but AFAIC he's shown he can fit into a decent team defense structure. Not that we've ever had that but with a new coaching staff comes new hopes.

Having Joel Embiid there to cover your defensive deficiencies is a lot different than being needed to cover for the defensive deficiencies of Karl Anthony Towns...and we all know which of the two Ayton emulates defensively.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Having Joel Embiid there to cover your defensive deficiencies is a lot different than being needed to cover for the defensive deficiencies of Karl Anthony Towns...and we all know which of the two Ayton emulates defensively.

And it's quite possible that the real Saric was exposed in Minnesota, I just don't know. But looking solely at what we do know, Dario looks like a nice addition for us, especially when we add or develop a starter that he can play behind. Until then, even flawed, he's a big improvement over what we've had.

 

[Adrian]

Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania)
6/24/19, 1:42 PM
The Phoenix Suns will decline guard Jimmer Fredette’s team option for the 2019-20 season, clearing way for him to play for the Golden State Warriors in NBA Summer League, sources tell ⁦‪@TheAthleticNBA‬⁩ ⁦‪@Stadium‬⁩.

 

[1Sun]

And it's quite possible that the real Saric was exposed in Minnesota, I just don't know. But looking solely at what we do know, Dario looks like a nice addition for us, especially when we add or develop a starter that he can play behind. Until then, even flawed, he's a big improvement over what we've had.

I certainly don't mind Saric as a back-up. It's the fact that they're bringing him in to be the answer as the starter that bothers me.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I certainly don't mind Saric as a back-up. It's the fact that they're bringing him in to be the answer as the starter that bothers me.

Starting power forwards, like starting point guards, aren't often available. And considering we needed both, we probably will have to settle for improvement over perfection.